If you’re looking for the best way to add both excitement and value to the start of a new sports week, look no further than our best MLB home run picks for today. We’ve been cashing plus-money plays all throughout the season (thank you, James Wood yesterday!), and with the trade deadline approaching, let’s keep doing just that by making it back-to-back days (again). After all, there are guys out there auditioning for new teams, which means they’ll also want to cash in on some MLB home run predictions!

You’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. Make sure that you also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

Of course, there are also starters on the mound looking to keep those hitters from cashing MLB home run picks, such as Zack Wheeler and Max Fried. With that in mind, you can enjoy even more markets when you check out our MLB expert picks today. That said, we also know that you may just want more longball targets. We’ve got you covered there as well with our exclusive MLB home run prop tool to go beyond the MLB home run predictions below!

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 7/27: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

Before we even get to other starters on the mound like the ones noted above, we first check out our very own MLB weather report. After that, we’ll look for guys unlike Wheeler and Cole to target for MLB home run picks, such as Merrill Kelly.

From the hitting perspective, we also need to see how splits look in terms of facing either right- or left-handed pitching. Bullpens are also a significant factor, as ones like Washington are prime HR targets. We’ll even dive into underlying numbers like barrel and hard-hit rates to ensure that you truly are getting the best MLB home run picks for today! 

Francisco Lindor (+490)

Juan Soto went on the IL for the New York Mets, so there is one less target in the rivalry with the Braves, but we’re expecting several homers to be hit at Citi Field tonight. We could easily pick from several Atlanta bats like when Drake Baldwin cashed for us the other day, but we’re actually sticking with the home team with our MLB home run picks.

Specifically, we’re rooting for a leadoff bomb from their switch-hitter against Braves lefty Martin Perez. Lindor has a strong history against the southpaw, hitting .409 with a 22 AB sample size. We wouldn’t put a ton of stock in that if not for 20+ AB’s, and beyond that, we love the shortstop’s hard-hit rate to cancel out Perez’s slower average pitcher speed.

This spot is going under the radar, as you can see with the price, so we love leading off our best MLB home run picks for today with Francisco Lindor hitting a HR (+490 at FanDuel).

Luis Garcia, Jr. (+355)

We mentioned Soto going on the IL, and it looks like we’re getting Max Scherzer back tonight! Homer lovers can rejoice because boy has he been a shell of his Hall-of-Fame form. Not only did James Wood homer for us yesterday, but he double donged…AND CJ Abrams hit two! So, it’s time for the first baseman to cash one of our MLB home run picks.

He did so not long ago against the Rockies, and everyone can eat against Scherzer. Lefties have a .661 slugging against him (righties have a .567 slugging as well), and Garcia doesn’t really need the help. His .503 expected slugging is elite, and above that, he’s hit 19 of his 21 homers against righties.

With all that in mind, we’re adding to our best MLB home run picks for today with Luis Garcia, Jr. hitting a HR (+355 at Caesars).

Paul Goldschmidt (+444)

Rounding things out is the Yankees vs. White Sox matchup, so yes, this means that we aren’t targeting Sutter Health Park at all! Perhaps a bonus pick will be in store for the newsletter folks, but no spoilers, and also, no targeting Max Fried. That means that it’s Noah Schultz that is on our radar for MLB home run picks being allowed.

Look, the Bronx Bombers aren’t living up to their nickname, and the recent addition of Cody Bellinger to the IL doesn’t help. However, what does help is Schultz’s 6.07 xERA and low values in terms of chase rate, whiff rate AND barrel rate. That sets up nicely for New York to bounce back from an embarrassing Sunday Night Baseball loss.

This will feel far different from facing Cristopher Sanchez, so we love adding to our best MLB home run picks for today with the guy known for smashing lefties - Paul Goldschmidt hitting a HR (+444 at Novig).  

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!
 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

From the plus-money above to even bigger potential payouts brings us today’s longshot target. It goes without saying that we’ll need a bit of luck to go our way as well, but it’s our favorite way to add to the MLB home run picks above!

We led off by calling for a Mets leadoff homer, so why not spin it back to a guy that was once leading off? He’s another guy that can get the job done from the left side of the plate and has been a shining rookie in New York. It’s still an MLB home run longshot pick for a reason, but we love this price for the right fielder. 

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

You can also continue adding to our top three targets and longshot with a for-fun parlay slip. While you could easily create one with the MLB home run picks that you’ve already seen, here are some fresh names for you!

With those being new targets, you could also just play them individually if they sound good to you. You could also mix and match with everything that you’ve seen above, but no matter what, our MLB home run picks are now yours to use however you’d like!