Don’t look now, but August is winding down in a hurry. While plenty of fans out there have fantasy football drafts this weekend, we’re here to add to that with our best MLB home run picks for today after hitting our FREE newsletter bonus pick for a five-day streak! Cashing in with some plus-money winners is as good as it gets while you’re drafting and getting ready for fantasy baseball playoffs, especially given today’s all-day slate. We’ve broken it all down so that you don’t have to do any of the work and still get today’s best MLB home run predictions!

You’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. Make sure that you also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

The classic Red Sox vs. Yankees rivalry rolls on nice and early and the slate wraps up with a Reds vs. Cubs rivalry on Sunday Night Baseball, so for more than just MLB home run picks, be sure to check out our MLB expert picks. From other props like strikeouts to basic game markets like totals, you’ll see our experts’ records for it all. If you just want to tunnel-vision MLB home run predictions, here are our top three targets for today…

 

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 8/30: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

Weather is always a factor for MLB home run predictions, especially with the all-afternoon action leading up to evening action at windy Wrigley Field. That’s why you’ll always want to start with (we certainly do) our MLB weather report. Once we’ve seen those factors, it’s all about breaking down the starters on the mound.

For example, Max Scherzer used to be feared, but now we’re extremely excited to see him on the slate. After analyzing their hard-hit rates, expected ISO allowed and more, we turn our attention to the hitters actually cashing our MLB home run picks. That means more metrics like launch angles, barrel rates, expected slugging and more.

As you’ve seen us note time and time again, we also consider team bullpens as well. Those factors and more are ones that you’ll see below as we fully break down our best MLB home run picks for today!

Coby Mayo (+305)

This was a hot spot to target in the series opener of O’s vs. A’s with Jacob Lopez, a lefty, on the mound at Sutter Health Park. It didn’t come to fruition, but before Baltimore leaves the Triple-A ballpark (don’t worry - they’re at Coors Field after this), they get another lefty. Not just any lefty, but one that is ideal for MLB home run picks.

That’s because Jeffrey Springs had allowed more homers than any other pitcher before missing the first two and a half weeks of August, and he’s allowed one in each of his two starts since returning. Even if this wasn’t a prime starter to pick on, Coby Mayo MASHES lefties. We’re not exaggerating - he has an unreal .439 ISO vs. southpaws! No, that’s not a typo.

It should be, and even his expected ISO is still .408. That’s Barry Bonds status, so we love leading off our best MLB home run picks for today with Coby Mayo hitting a HR (+305 at ProphetX). 

Kyle Schwarber (+290)

Speaking of lefties to pick on, there is another one not far from Sacramento at Angel Stadium. It may not be a Triple-A ballpark, but when Yusei Kikuchi is toeing the rubber, the Philadelphia Phillies lineup should be excited. He missed all of May, June and July and when he came back on August 23, he allowed two MLB home run picks to cash.

We all know that Philly features top lefty bats like HR-leader Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, which can feel less-than-ideal with a fellow southpaw on the mound, but when it’s Kikuchi, it’s not going to keep us away from this spot. Let’s also not forget that the Angels bullpen is quite awful, and we don’t see Kikuchi lasting long in this start.

This ultimate chalk name doesn’t appear much at all here, but with his .304 ISO vs. fellow lefties, we’re adding to our top MLB home run picks today with Kyle Schwarber hitting a HR (+290 at ProphetX).

Willson Contreras (+460)

If you’ve been sticking with us, not only have you been enjoying winners, but you also know that it’s unlike us to have all three picks with odds like the two above, so here’s our value spot. The Red Sox and Yankees split yesterday’s doubleheader, but for today’s game, we’ve got MLB home run picks cashing for Boston thanks to the matchup.

After dealing with lefties Carlos Rodon and Max Fried yesterday, they get to enjoy righty Will Warren. Speaking of Fried, because his start was a return from injury, the bullpen was HEAVILY relied on, so they’re going to be fatigued when having to come in for Warren, who has lasted just four innings in two of his last three starts.

Oh yeah - he’s also given up 1+ homers in three straight starts (three against the Mariners when we cashed with Julio Rodriguez at nearly this exact price in the first inning). Maybe we remember TOO much, but either way, we’re adding to our best MLB home run picks for today with Willson Contreras hitting a HR (+460 at ProphetX).

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!

 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

Our top three MLB home run picks and FREE bonus pick are where we’d always suggest fans start, but if you’ve been following for a while and want to take things a step further, here’s our top longshot for today…

So you’re telling us we can get this price for a guy with 14 homers this year and facing a starter that just had to leave his last start after one pitch due to getting blasted by a comebacker (Dustin May)? Count us in. He’s got one of the better launch-angle sweet-spot percentages for longshot options (35.5%), so the Rangers SS/3B is our best MLB home run longshot pick for today.

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

Speaking of taking things a step further, that’s exactly what a for-fun parlay does. If you’d like one of those to pair with our overall best MLB home run picks for today, here’s what we’ve pieced together…

As always, any one of those guys sporting orange in some capacity can be played individually (CES is a close second to Alonso), as they are guys that were just out of our top three. If they make the cut for you over our targets - no hard feelings - all the MLB home run picks above are for you to use as you see fit!