The MLB weekend series kicked off with the classic afternoon clash at Wrigley Field, but when it comes to the Saturday slate, we have a MONSTER afternoon slate leading up to great evening matchups. So, what better way to enjoy it all than with our best MLB home run picks for today? We hit our FREE newsletter bonus pick last night and we’re here to bring you after breaking down everything for today. That means a famous Red Sox vs. Yankees rivalry to start the slate to a coast-to-coast clash of Phillies vs. Angels that closes it out, so let’s enjoy some MLB home run predictions!

You’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. Make sure that you also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

Not only is there the famous Boston vs. New York battle, but that series also has a doubleheader today! That means locking in more than just MLB home run picks, and for that, just take advantage of our MLB expert picks.

We have some recognizable names on the mound like Carlos Rodon and Cristopher Sanchez on the mound, so having more market coverage is ideal. So is having more targets for MLB home run predictions, and for that, just enjoy our MLB home run prop tool!

 

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 8/29: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

We mentioned some big arms on the mound, but before we even get into those guys, we first check out our very own MLB weather report. Those conditions affect MLB home run picks no matter who is on the mound, so it’s where we always start. THEN it’s time to break down each starting pitcher toeing the rubber today.

That means their baseline righty/lefty splits, home/road splits and other basic numbers while also analyzing underlying metrics like expected ISO and barrel rate allowed. Hitters require a similar breakdown in terms of their basic slugging percentage paired with hard-hit rates, launch angles and more.

Add all that to bullpen performances and we can come up with the best recipes for the best MLB home run picks for today, which we’ll further explain below!

Pete Alonso (+260)

The fact that we’re targeting a Baltimore Orioles hitter multiple times in just a handful of days speaks volumes to how much they’re set up for success in terms of the longball. They’re at the Triple-A Sutter Health Park, but weren’t able to hit a single homer last night. Well, we see that changing tonight, hence where we’re starting our best MLB home run picks for today.

Jacob Lopez is a lefty fans are starting to buy into, but tonight, it’s Jack Perkins taking the mound. He’s a righty that not only doesn’t have significant splits, but actually allows a higher ISO to fellow righties (.198). That’s not an astronomical number, but with the way that the Polar Bear has been hitting balls to the moon, he doesn’t need much help.

We ride his 98th-percentile hard-hit rate and 99th-percentile average exit velocity by leading off our top MLB home run picks today with Pete Alonso hitting a HR (+260 at DraftKings).

Ryan Jeffers (+630)

A factor that we love nearly as much as Sutter Health Park is seeing Erick Fedde’s name on the slate. Even if we end up seeing him get an opener, the Chicago White Sox bullpen doesn’t scare us away from this. Speaking of that squad, Bailey Ober starting for the Minnesota Twins means that you know that Munetaka Murakami is going yard since he didn’t cash our MLB home run picks last night.

Regardless, he can do so alongside our Twins target against the aforementioned Fedde. Matchup-wise, this should be all about Byron Buxton, but at this point, he’s clearly just not 100% healthy. We say that because like Perkins, fellow righties have hit Fedde well - very well, as they have a .521 slugging and .249 ISO against him.

That’s led to 16 of his 22 homers allowed, so we love adding to our best MLB home run picks today with a value play of Ryan Jeffers hitting a HR (+630 at ProphetX).

Jake Bauers (+385)

It was just two nights ago when we cashed with Jackson Chourio at +480 - who homered twice - so it’s not just the aforementioned Ryan Jeffers where we find the value for you. We say because as you’ve seen, we’re back on the Milwaukee Brewers. We have them cashing MLB home run picks to give lefty Shane Drohan some run support.

They’re going to be doing so against Cal Quantrill, who has massively overperformed both what was expected of him when he returned and based on what the underlying numbers tell us. He doesn’t allow a huge hard-hit rate, but lefties still have a .408 slugging and .194 xISO against him. By now, you know that pick-your-poison with Milwaukee southpaws is a staple here.

If you’re hesitant with the first baseman missing time as of late, pivot to Garrett Mitchell for an even juicier payout, but we’re officially adding to our top MLB home run picks today with Jake Bauers hitting a HR (+385 at ProphetX).

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!

 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

The factors we mentioned can also be considered to take things beyond just a top three MLB home run picks and bonus pick, and that’s with our favorite longshot target…

As you can see, we didn’t go far (or anywhere for that matter) from our most recent HR pick, as we’re sticking with the Brewers lefty theme. It wasn’t as rough of a pick-your-poison spot since this price tag allowed us to use this southpaw in this spot as well! This should be in the +500’s or +600’s in our opinion, so we love this as our best MLB home run longshot pick for today. 

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

There are always more ways to make the slate even more valuable. Yes, that means more than standalone MLB home run picks, which is why we’ve got our favorite for-fun parlay angle…

We're doing it! Since it was “only” our free newsletter bonus pick that cashed last night, we’ve pieced together our top three from last night. It’s happened enough where they homer the next night instead, so let’s see if we can capitalize on it this time by adding this parlay to our best MLB home run picks today!