One of the smallest baseball slates is behind us, which means that there is no better way to celebrate than with MLB home run picks. After all, we still made it three straight days of winners despite the small slate with Jac Caglianone at +420 AND Jackson Chourio at +480 (who homered twice)! We’ve also got the classic afternoon clash at Wrigley Field, and we know that out-blowing winds there can really boost chances for dingers. We’ll break down that matchup and every single one leading up to the action by the bay to ensure that you’ve got the top MLB home run predictions today!

You’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. Make sure that you also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

The first game after that Wrigley Field matchup features Tarik Skubal, and we’ve also got Cam Schlittler headlining the slate, so we know that some fans will want to go beyond MLB home run picks. That’s where our MLB expert picks come in to provide you with more market coverage.

You may also want to take longshots against those aces or simply find spots beyond our favorites. So, to explore even more options for MLB home run predictions, be sure to utilize our exclusive MLB home run prop tool!

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 8/28: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

The wind at Wrigley isn’t the only weather factor to consider, which is why we always start with our very own MLB weather report when it comes to uncovering the very best MLB home run picks. The vast majority of matchups are outdoors, and of course, we can never ignore Sutter Health Park in Sacramento.

We also can’t ignore some of the starters on the mound today, which is the next factor that we break down. That means their righty/lefty splits, their barrel and hard-hit rates allowed, ISO and expected ISO values, and more. Similarly, hitters have those same metrics plus launch-angle sweet-spot rates, slugging and expected SLG, and more.

Bullpens are more of a broad scope, but there are still details within those that we consider, so let’s break it all down with each of our top MLB home run picks individually!

Pete Crow-Armstrong (+365)

Let’s not waste any time waiting for the first dinger to cash. We won’t have to by targeting the aforementioned classic Friday afternoon Wrigley Field game, and if there’s one thing we know about the home team, they are extremely streaky. Thankfully, we don’t need to worry about whether they’re on a win streak or on the struggle bus to cash MLB home run picks.

Regardless, just about any team can surge when they get to enjoy the combination of Cincinnati Reds starter Rhett Lowder and their terrible bullpen. Half the Chicago lineup can homer here, but you already know that we have a couple of favorites. In this spot, we’ll roll with a lefty that just happens to be the frontrunner for NL MVP ahead of Shohei Ohtani.

It may not be an outside-the-box pick, but we’re still getting some solid value by leading off our best MLB home run picks for today with Pete Crow-Armstrong hitting a HR (+365 at ProphetX).

Matt Olson (+305)

There’s another starter + bullpen combination that we’ve picked on even more than Lowder + the Reds, and that would be Tomoyuki Sugano + the Colorado Rockies' pen. While it’s not at Coors Field, the Atlanta Braves have several big bats that can cash MLB home run picks, just like Matt Olson did for us just two days ago.

Speaking of one of the league’s home run leaders, not only do the Braves have big bats to bash Sugano, but what is even scarier for the Rockies righty is that most of them are lefties; southpaws have a .590 slugging percentage against him, leading to 19 of his 26 homers allowed! If that didn’t sound bad enough, Sugano has a .316 ISO allowed to lefties this season.

Expect to see multiple Atlanta names in some way or another today, but for this spot specifically, we’ll add to our best MLB home run picks for today with Matt Olson hitting a HR (+305 at ProphetX)...again.

Munetaka Murakami (+290)

If you’re into baseball cards, you’re likely hunting an autographed Munetaka Murakami rookie card of some sort, and rightfully so. The rookie Chicago White Sox first baseman is looking for homer #30, and facing Dean Kremer sets him up to get it. The former Baltimore Orioles righty was traded for many reasons, including his prowess for allowing MLB home run picks.

You’ll see that he’s only allowed 14 this season, but he also missed three and a half months, so it’s actually much worse than it sounds. As a splitter pitcher, we see lefties smash him to the tune of a .516 slugging percentage, which is perfect for Murakami’s unreal power; he has 100th percentile metrics for barrel AND hard-hit rate, not to mention a 98th percentile average exit velocity.

All those numbers add up to us adding to our best MLB home run picks for today with Munetaka Murakami hitting a HR (+290 at ProphetX).

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!
 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

You’ve seen several locations and pitchers that we love targeting today, and our bonus pick has also been submitted for today’s newsletter, but let’s keep the value coming. Here’s how we’re adding to our best MLB home run picks with a longshot option…

We cashed our +880 longshot just two nights ago by taking a visitor at Sutter Health Park, so let’s do the same with the O’s in town. We’re getting this price for a lefty who homered in THREE straight games recently and will get to face the A’s bullpen at some point. Let’s make Dylan Beavers our best MLB home run longshot pick while he has the hot hand!

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

Between the names that you’ve already seen, you can create an awesome parlay for today as well. That said, for a different approach, here’s another for-fun angle to add to our best MLB home run picks for today…

Not much of a theme for this one; perhaps we’ll just go with all NL teams being represented? Regardless, if it hits, we won’t care that there’s not a cool theme! Enjoy this fun way to add to our best MLB home run picks for today!