Following the lighter 10-game slate is a loaded Tuesday that features plenty of storylines, like the return of Tyler Glasnow as well as lesser-known arms on the mound, and that’s where MLB home run picks come in. We also love seeing Sutter Health Park on the menu, and even the NY parks in the Bronx and Queens always provide some intrigue. Being able to target dingers for plus-money payouts will be overshadowed by the NFL for some time soon, so we’re always here to continue capitalizing on MLB home run predictions!

You’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. Make sure that you also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

Speaking of capitalizing on the action on the diamond, you can do so with more than MLB home run picks when you check out our MLB expert picks. Along with the pitchers that we want to pick on are plenty of guys that are great for K props, helping their team cash game markets and more. As for more MLB home run predictions, just utilize our exclusive MLB home run prop tool!

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 8/25: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

Having the names above is great, but why are those our best MLB home run picks? That’s a loaded question that begins with our very own MLB weather report, as outdoor conditions 100% play a part in the long ball. Then, it’s time to check out the starters on the mound that we’ve been referring to.

Those alone bring a ton of factors to consider, from righty/lefty splits to HR/FB ratios and metrics in between like slugging and ISO allowed. Hitters themselves have some similar aspects to break down, adding to those mentioned with metrics like barrel and hard-hit rates. Along with bullpens, you’ll see several factors that go into our MLB home run predictions below!

Shohei Ohtani (+260)

We noted the return of Tyler Glasnow for the Los Angeles Dodgers, and while he’ll be a popular target for some K props, we’re going to focus on his lineup providing him with some run support. That’s because the star-studded LA lineup gets to face Bryce Elder. Along with a warm, humid Atlanta ballpark, they’re set up for cashing multiple MLB home run picks.

Virtually no name in the Dodgers lineup will come as a surprise to go yard against Bryce Elder in general, especially against his 15th percentile average exit velocity allowed and inability to miss bats. Even if he magically turns into an ace, Ohtani is as matchup-proof as it gets, but we’ll still enjoy his odds at least not down in the +100s.

We don’t often go THIS chalky, but let’s start a new streak of cashing MLB home run picks with Shohei Ohtani hitting a HR (+260 at ProphetX).

Ben Rice (+360)

From one big market team and from one coast to the other, we’re going from Los Angeles to New York. Specifically, the Bronx, where we’ll find the Bronx Bombers hosting the Houston Astros. We know that Yordan Alvarez can always launch one off Will Warren, and you can certainly swap to that for your MLB home run picks if you want more chalk.

Instead, we’re going to swap to the home team facing a guy making his second career start - Ethan Pecko. He lasted just 3.2 innings in his debut, and while he didn’t allow a homer, that one sample isn’t going to keep us away. What is also keeping us here is Rice’s ridiculous .302 ISO vs. right-handed pitching!

A homer here tonight will give him 35 and actually only a few behind the aforementioned Alvarez, so let’s add to our best MLB home run picks for today with Ben Rice hitting a HR (22% at Novig - equivalent to +355).

Oneil Cruz (+405)

You already know that Kody Clemens is going yard tonight at Sutter Health Park since he didn’t last night, so if you want to substitute him to round out the top three, we won’t blame you. However, to switch things up, we’re actually going to go with a guy that may surprise you. So, you can’t just say we’re only taking chalk to start a new streak of MLB home run picks after seeing Ohtani.

Here’s why we love this spot. San Diego Padres righty Michael King pitches to contact, which alleviates Cruz’s biggest issue: whiffing. Well, that contact isn’t hard contact. That may be true, but if there is one guy that can hit ANYTHING hard, it’s Cruz - he has a 100th percentile hard-hit rate of 58%! That’s why we saw Cruz homer in his first game back from injury.

He also has a .266 expected ISO vs. righties (.235 actual as well), so we love adding to our best MLB home run picks for today with Oneil Cruz hitting a HR (+405 at ProphetX).

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!
 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

As much as we love the guys above and our FREE bonus pick, we know that some fans want more. So, consider adding to our best MLB home run picks today with this longshot option…

Ok, we couldn’t COMPLETELY avoid Sutter Health Park! This is a great spot for one of our favorite longshot targets of Jeff McNeil, but even he is down to +630-ish. That is certainly still valuable, but you know that we like to go big in this spot, and even this is casual for us. It’s another middle infielder, and this one has a 42.3% launch-angle sweet-spot rate (99th percentile once qualified), so Donovan Walton is our best MLB home run longshot pick for today! 

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

STILL looking for more? Not a problem - you can also consider adding to our top MLB home run picks today with the for-fun parlay created below…

That’s a monster potential four-figure payout to make the most of all 30 teams back on the diamond today. Even if you only want to focus on our top three MLB home run picks, everything above is now yours to use as you see fit!