What better way is there to close out your weekend than with some MLB home run picks? We get to target the best bets in baseball for some big plus-money odds, and after making it back-to-back winners with Mickey Moniak (and four winners in as many days), it’s an awesome way to add more value before Monday hits. We’ve got Coors Field coming off the menu after today too, and even Dodger Stadium will be a bummer to have unavailable. Along with a lack of aces on the mound today, it truly is the perfect time to have the best MLB home run predictions.

You’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. Make sure that you also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

While we’re excited to have a lighter day of top arms on the mound to help with MLB home run picks, that doesn’t mean that there aren’t any other ways to approach the slate. So, always check in with our MLB expert picks for more market coverage. That said, you may only be worried about dingers. So, consider more MLB home run predictions using our exclusive MLB home run prop tool! 

 

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 8/23: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

So, why are those three guys our top MLB home run picks for today? There is a laundry list of reasons for them, as we break down every factor possible for each slate. Everything starts with our MLB weather report, followed by the starting pitchers slated to toe the rubber. We check out everything from their basic righty/lefty splits to expected ISO allowed and everything in between.

Similarly, since the hitters themselves are actually cashing the MLB home run predictions, we want to know the same information regarding their metrics. Some of those “in-between factors” are barrel rates, hard-hit rates, launch-angle sweet spot rates and more. We also have to consider bullpens, as they can be in the game more than starters in some cases.

We’ve already mentioned some of the locations that we’re going to be checking out, so let’s fully break down each of our best MLB home run picks for today!

Nathaniel Lowe (+375)

We know that some fans are going to feel some fatigue with this target given that we just made it two nights ago, so let’s get this breakdown done first. Look, we don’t see the Cleveland Guardians at Coors Field often, and now that Tomoyuki Sugano is back on the mound, we simply have to take advantage with MLB home run picks while we can.

That’s because Nathaniel Lowe, as we said the other night, has some of the most drastic splits out there. He has a remarkable .529 slugging vs. lefties compared to an embarrassing .067 vs. slugging vs. righties. While he didn’t come through for us in the series opener, it was still a 2-for-4 game with three runs scored.

Most importantly, Sugano gets smashed by lefties, allowing a borderline unbelievable .324 ISO! So much power can be put on display vs. the Colorado righty, so we’re back on Nathaniel Lowe hitting a HR (+375 at bet365) as part of our best MLB home run picks today.

Max Muncy (+300)

The last time we saw Carmen Mlodzinski on the mound, we targeted him for homers and said that it’s all about lefties going yard. Well, Kevin McGonigle did just that, as he remains the clear favorite to win AL Rookie of the Year. Now the Pittsburgh Pirates righty is set to get an opener (Lake Bachar) before having to deal with a Los Angeles Dodgers lineup littered with lefties.

We know that Shohei Ohtani will have some of the shortest HR odds on any given day, especially at home in Dodger Stadium. Similarly, Max Muncy is often a popular target, and Freddie Freeman is a lefty that provides a bit more value. We note all that simply to say that they’re all viable against a Pirates bullpen game and/or Mlodzinski.

As always, we’ve got to lock one in, so we’ve added to our best MLB home run picks for today with Max Muncy hitting a HR (+300 at bet365).

Junior Caminero (+375)

We’ve got another popular name to round out the top three, but with another price tag in the +300’s for him (oddly higher at ProphetX and bet365, but still valuable elsewhere), this is far from pure chalk like Shohei Ohtani down in the +100’s on some platforms. The guy we’re targeting has more than Shohei anyway! In fact, only three guys in the league have cashed more MLB home run picks than the Rays righty.

At 35, he’s just three behind Kyle Schwarber for the league lead, and he can take a few steps towards that lead against Baltimore Orioles starter Shane Baz. Despite being a guy who loves to throw his curveball, he still has a 10th percentile average exit velocity allowed. When Baz first faced TB this season, he allowed a HR to Hunter Feduccia - a longshot HR target.

With Caminero’s 100th percentile bat speed having not homered in 12 days, he’s due in a big way. So, let’s add to our best MLB home run picks for today with Junior Caminero hitting a HR (+375 at ProphetX).

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!

 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

You’ve gotten the full breakdowns for our very best MLB home run picks and the bonus pick is en route to you, but let’s keep things going with a longshot option for today!

With Coors Field as an option, taking a longshot at Petco Park in San Diego is about as surprising as it gets, but again, it’s just that - a longshot! Luke Keaschall homered here last night (+920 today), so the top Twins prospect can do the same. While he doesn’t fully qualify to be ranked yet, his 43.3% launch-angle sweet-spot is absolutely elite. So, let’s lock in the young shortstop as our best MLB home run longshot pick for today!

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

As if that massive potential payout wasn’t juicy enough, we can continue adding to our favorite MLB home run picks for today with a for-fun parlay!

No real theme to today’s trifecta, but if it hits, will we care? As always, take advantage of our top MLB home run picks today is any way that feels best to you!