Following the light nine-game slate comes a loaded Friday night of action on the diamond, so let’s make it even more exciting with some MLB home run picks! After all, who doesn’t like the sound of even more Friday night fireworks? We even have an earlier start to the slate, and that Braves vs. Brewers potential NLCS preview features Chris Sale vs. Jacob Misiorowski as well! While we may not want to target those aces when it comes to MLB home run predictions, we’ve still found spots that we love! 

You’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. Make sure that you also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

The slate also features the likes of Cam Schlittler and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and since those guys aren’t usually ideal for MLB home run picks, you’ll want to check out more markets with our MLB expert picks. From K props to basic game markets, you’ll find more ways to start your weekend with all the value. Speaking of value, you can check out more options for MLB home run predictions with our exclusive MLB home run prop tool!

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 8/21: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

We’ve already noted some top arms on the mound, but even before analyzing starters, we check out our MLB weather report. The weekend features a handful of matchups in the Northeast and a few on the West Coast, so all sorts of different weather conditions can influence where we want to focus our MLB home run picks.

It’s then time to get further into the starters, especially ones that we haven’t mentioned yet, as they’ll be more prone to have metrics we love. That also holds true for the hitters themselves, and for both pitchers and batters, we’ll look at barrel rates, hard-hit rates, expected slugging and ISO values, and more.

There are seemingly endless numbers to dive into on that front, and along with bullpens, it’s all been taken into account for the MLB home run picks that we’re going to break down below!

Trent Grisham (+432)

It’s a bummer to have Coors Field on the menu, but with a lackluster Cleveland Guardians lineup and no Hunter Goodman, and with a lefty on the mound, we may not even see Mickey Moniak in the lineup. Thankfully, what isn’t a bummer is Yankee Stadium’s short porch and the expectation of Spencer Arrighetti’s debut - a great combo for MLB home run picks.

The former Houston Astros starter has yet to make his first Toronto Blue Jays start, and it may come after the Bronx Bombers hit a couple of homers just last night. We’ll admit that their lineup has still left plenty to be desired, but it only takes one for winners here. Ben Rice is the obvious pick, but we’re actually pivoting to the center fielder.

This is because Arrighetti is a curveball guy and Grisham has elite plate discipline, helping him hit .300 against such pitches this year. Let’s enjoy extra value by leading off our best MLB home run picks for today with Trent Grisham hitting a HR (+432 at DraftKings).

Nathaniel Lowe (+430)

Ok, NOW we can get into Coors Field. While it’s not our favorite series involving the Rockies, Cleveland’s top targets today are both new to the team - Jo Adell and Nathaniel Lowe. The key would be righty vs. lefty, but having seen Adell get banged up, that makes things clearer anyway. So, we’ll be picking on righty Tanner Gordon for MLB home run picks tonight.

The former Cincinnati Reds lefty has DRASTIC splits: a .525 slugging vs. righties and a .067 slugging vs. lefties! That said, we also have to consider the terrible Colorado bullpen, which could still have a lefty come in like Brennan Bernardino. Even still, that’s not enough to make us completely pivot from our top guy.

Let’s enjoy another one of our MLB home run picks in the +400s by adding to them with Nathaniel Lowe hitting a HR (+430 at FanDuel).

Miguel Vargas (+380)

It’s about that time again - time to enjoy Miguel Vargas against a lefty! It’s been one of our favorite things to do this season, and with how much he continues to prove how great it is, the odds are no longer in the +400’s, but we’re still more than happy about this one. This time, it’s Sean Manaea that we’re targeting for MLB home run picks.

We’ll admit that he’s far from the worst lefty in the league, but he’s still one that Vargas can capitalize on. The White Sox third baseman has a 97th percentile expected slugging of .519, a 93rd percentile barrel rate of 14.6%, AND a 96th percentile launch-angle sweet-spot rate of 40.4%, so what’s not to love?

Those metrics help nullify the fact that Manaea doesn’t throw extreme heat, so as he approaches his 30-homer season, we love adding to our best MLB home run picks for today with Miguel Vargas hitting a HR (+380 at ProphetX).

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!
 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

We love breaking down our MLB home run predictions for you and following it up with a bonus pick, but let’s keep the good times rolling. Here is our favorite longshot option for tonight…

Just because the Coors Field clash isn’t our favorite, that doesn’t mean that there aren’t ANY value picks. Better yet, this is a longshot that we’ve already hit this season! It makes it a lefty-on-lefty crime, but that’s actually what the Colorado leadoff man loves - he has a .542 slugging vs. fellow southpaws this year! As a guy going for HR #14, we love making him our best MLB home run longshot pick for today.

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

Don’t want to trust a guy not known for hitting bombs over the fence? No problem - here is yet another way to make some MLB home run picks, which is with our top for-fun parlay…

We’ve got a trio of lefties today, and of course, any one of them is more than playable individually. It’s time for Friday night fireworks, so make the most of our best MLB home run picks for today however you’d like!