To prime us for the weekend ahead, we have a nine-game Thursday slate before we get to enjoy some Friday night fireworks. So, let's make the most of it after hitting TWO of our top three MLB home run picks last night…in the same game! Today, we won’t have to wait long to do so, as not only do we have early action, but it’s also the majority of the slate in the afternoon. With the Great American Ball Park still on the menu and the “other” Chicago stadium on deck, we’ll break it all down to help you lock in the best MLB home run predictions for today.

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⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

While the slate features several starters worth targeting for MLB home run picks, there are also guys like Gavin Williams and Gerrit Cole toeing the rubber. So, if you want other ways to attack those matchups, then just check out our MLB expert picks for today. Of course, you can just stick with more MLB home run predictions courtesy of our exclusive MLB home run prop tool!

 

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 8/20: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

Beyond the top arms that we noted above, we have a ton of other factors that affect MLB home run picks, starting with our very own MLB weather report. Not only do we want to avoid giving you targets that may not end up playing, but we also want to take advantage of out-blowing winds, high humidity, and other conditions that benefit the longball.

Speaking of which, some starters are better than others for MLB home run picks thanks to their ISO and xISO allowed to either righties and/or lefties, and the same regarding barrel rates, hard-hit rates, and more. Those metrics also apply to hitters, and we also love checking out their launch-angle sweet-spot rates to make things a truly perfect recipe.

In that regard, our top three MLB home run picks are the guys that cover as many of those factors as possible, so let us further break things down!

Elly De La Cruz (+390)

We’re not going to make you wait at all for the first of our targets, as we have the aforementioned Great American Ball Park featured as the slate opener. Better yet, it’s a matchup that features Michael McGreevy vs. Brady Singer - that means both lineups are primed for hitting some MLB home run picks in the HR-friendly park.

For this leadoff spot, we’re going to prioritize the Reds lineup, even if they aren’t the most consistent. Singer has been stronger than expected more often than not, but McGreevy is finally living up to his bad underlying numbers. That includes a 10.2% barrel rate allowed and 42.6% hard-hit rate allowed, and we’ll also note that he likes throwing change-ups to lefties.

That’s good not only how well Elly can hit any pitch hard, but also for his .364 average vs. such pitches. We’ll admit that he hits better vs. lefties, but given that this righty is McGreevy, we’re leading off our best MLB home run picks with Elly De La Cruz hitting a HR (+390 at ProphetX).

Ronald Acuna, Jr. (+456)

Frankly, we could just stick with the Cardinals vs. Reds NL Central clash for an entire article, but let’s mix things up. It’s very tempting to do so by targeting Kansas City Royals righty Randy Dobak and KC’s awful bullpen, but with the A’s depleted lineup, it’s just not fun to target. So, let’s head to Chicago to continue our best MLB home run picks for today.

It’s not windy at Wrigley Field like the cross-town rivalry earlier this week where Pete Crow-Armstrong lit it up, but we still like this Braves vs. White Sox matchup. That’s because we have Grant Holmes vs. Anthony Kay on the mound, so, like the above, both lineups can eat. As for our pick, we’re focused on Kay’s .470 slugging and 14 of 16 homers allowed to righties.

While Atlanta is headlined by lefties like Matt Olson, the right fielder has come through for us not too long ago. So, let’s enjoy his 92nd percentile bat speed and add to our best MLB home run picks today with Ronald Acuna, Jr. hitting a HR (18% at Novig…+456).

Yordan Alvarez (+240)

The final game of the night features an Angels vs. Astros NL West rivalry, but most importantly, it features LA starter Grayson Rodriguez. In his last start, he allowed Michael Massey to homer, who was a recent longshot target of ours. That means getting to add to our MLB home run picks with arguably the best hitter in baseball is as good as it gets.

Yordan has a laundry list of remarkable metrics: 100th percentile xWOBA, xBA and xSLG, 99th percentile average exit velocity, barrel rate, and launch-angle sweet-spot rate, AND a 97th percentile hard-hit rate. So, what’s not to love? He also still has work to do to catch Kyle Schwarber in terms of the league lead.

Let’s root him on in his quest for the Triple Crown by adding to our top MLB home run picks today with Yordan Alvarez hitting a HR (+240 at BetMGM).

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!

 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

While those three and our bonus pick are the guys that we consider to be the best MLB home run picks for today, there are also some guys who are flying under the radar, such as…

We mentioned Randy Dobnak and the terrible KC bullpen earlier, and since we just don’t love the A’s lineup, let’s instead get value by using them for our MLB home run longshot pick. Believe it or not, McNeil doesn’t have longshot numbers - he’s hitting .347 with a .514 slugging percentage vs. righties since July 1! He’s homered twice in less than a week as well, so we love adding to our best MLB home run longshot pick for today with the A’s second baseman. 

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

Let’s circle back to guys who are more expected to hit dingers compared to that longshot option. We’re doing so in order to continue adding to our top MLB home run predictions today with an awesome potential parlay payout:

We’ve covered it all at this point so that you can make a lighter slate today feel just as exciting as all the weekend series teeing off tomorrow. Don’t put things off much longer with an early start to the slate and lock in our best MLB home run picks for today now!