Following a slate that we considered to be the worst for MLB home run picks so far this season, it’s time to make some Friday night fireworks for ourselves! In fact, we even have the option of Friday afternoon fireworks with a classic early game at Wrigley Field. Is the wind blowing out? Does Pete Crow-Armstrong have odds worth taking? We’ll answer those questions and cover a ton more for you with our best MLB home run predictions below!

You’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. Make sure that you also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

PCA is as matchup-proof as it gets, but if you’re looking to go beyond the obvious, add to our best MLB home run picks today with our MLB expert picks. We’ve got several experts in the green over the course of the entire season, so why wouldn’t you take advantage of more picks? That said, if you are only concerned about MLB home run predictions, then our exclusive MLB home run prop tool is also here for you!

 

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 8/14: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

You’ve got the names of our top three MLB home run picks, but why did we go with those guys among the full slate that we had at our disposal? Well, we mentioned the wind at Wrigley, so everything begins with our MLB weather report. After that, it’s going beyond the obvious with today’s starting pitchers, with their expected numbers, pitch mix, and more to see how they truly perform against their opposition.

Speaking of that opposition, the hitters themselves need to be broken down in the same way. Seeing a guy with 25+ homers is great and all, but has he been lucky and/or hitting them all in optimal conditions? Has a guy with single-digit homers been unlucky and due for a surge? Along with answering those questions, we also have to consider bullpens.

We’ve considered it all, and then some, which is why we’ve also got full breakdowns of our top MLB home run picks for you below!

CJ Abrams (+475)

After a home series against the aforementioned PCA and the Chicago Cubs, the Washington Nationals leave the capital and head to Queens. While Citi Field isn’t the first ballpark fans think of when they think about homers, it’s far from the worst. That’s especially true when we’ve got a lefty masher that loves cashing our MLB home run picks.

We love James Wood, and when the Nats lineup was fully loaded, but this is still among the best shortstops in the game. That should be on full display with the New York Mets starting Robert Stock, who was just shelled for eight runs in three innings against a lackluster lineup vs. righties - the Pittsburgh Pirates.

If they can do that to him, then this elite SS can feast. So, let’s lead off our best MLB home run picks for today with CJ Abrams hitting a HR (+475 at bet365).

Jac Caglianone (+266)

The next matchup that we’re focused on today may not be at the top of most fans’ radar, as Royals vs. Angels features two lineups that leave plenty to be desired. However, that’s from a macro perspective; they still feature a few premier HR guys like Jac Caglianone and Mike Trout, not to mention Bobby Witt, who is no stranger to cashing MLB home run picks.

Today also features a trio of factors that we’ve enjoyed picking on: Grayson Rodriguez, Seth Lugo, and the KC bullpen, and the LA bullpen is far from elite as well. Therefore, both sides can have success with the longball. We’re pulling the trigger on the name of the trio we mentioned that is likely the least known by the casual fan, despite being in the 2025 HR Derby.

He also cashed for us not long ago, and his 98th percentile hard-hit rate of 55.1% is unreal. So, we love adding to our best MLB home run picks today with Jac Caglianone hitting a HR (+266 at Courtside).

Seiya Suzuki (+400)

We asked the questions about Wrigley right from the rip, so let’s round out our top three targets by circling back to the Cardinals vs. Cubs NL Central rivalry, even if the wind isn’t so friendly today. Chicago wants to steal the division from the Milwaukee Brewers, and they can take one more step in that direction vs. Matthew Liberatore. The lefty has allowed 20 MLB home run picks to cash this season.

With both sides of the plate having success against him, the big question is whether we want to go with a Cubs righty that smashes lefties like Seiya Suzuki or target a lefty-on-lefty crime with the NL MVP favorite. It was PCA that cashed for us to start the week with Suzuki coming through with the parlay leg, so you already know we want to use both of them.

Of course, we have to officially lock one in for our best MLB home run picks today, which you’ve already seen that we’ve done with Seiya Suzuki hitting a HR (+400 at DraftKings)!

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!
 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

We always make sure that we’re not just giving you the shortest odds of the day, but we also like going above and beyond. Let’s do just that by adding to our MLB home run picks above with today’s longshot target.

With Chase Burns starting for the Cincinnati Reds and this being a contact hitter, we get the price. That said, the only issue with Burns is that with the heat he throws (and this being at the Great American Ball Park), even not-pure contact can leave the yard. So, it’s still an MLB home run longshot pick, but we love the value with this monster potential payout!

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

Ready to go above and beyond again? Add to our top three MLB home run picks, FREE bonus pick, and longshot with the for-fun parlay below!

As we said from the start, we didn’t love yesterday’s slate, so let’s really make the most of this one and kick off our weekend in style. Our best MLB home run picks will always be here for you to do just that!