MLB home run picks were MASSIVE yesterday. We went 3-for-3 with our top targets, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Corbin Carroll, and Miguel Vargas, AND we hit our +990 longshot with Jacob Young. Not to complain after such an awesome day, but we did hit two of the three parlay legs as well. Regardless, we have afternoon baseball to get ready for, so we can’t waste much more time getting into our best MLB home run predictions for today!

You’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. Make sure that you also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

For those who still want to enjoy aces like Zack Wheeler toeing the rubber and perhaps simple game markets, our MLB expert picks are always ready for you as well. For those who just want more MLB home run picks than the ones that you’re about to see below, then just use our exclusive MLB home run prop tool!

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 8/12: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

So, why did those guys make the cut for our top MLB home run picks? Well, for starters, we checked in with our MLB weather report. While we may not need to check on the wind in Wrigley Field, it’s still an amazing tool to have. After that, things are nice and simple in terms of checking the starters for the slate.

Once we’ve broken down their righty/lefty splits, slugging and ISO allowed, expected values and more, it’s time to consider bullpens. After all, we have several relief units that have allowed more than 70 MLB home run picks to cash this season! Speaking of which, the hitters themselves are next on our menu to break down.

Like the starters, they have metrics to analyze, like righty/lefty splits, slugging and ISO against certain pitch types, and more. It all creates a recipe for the perfect MLB home run predictions, so let us explain why these guys are our top three targets!

Colson Montgomery (+288)

We targeted Chicago White Sox third baseman Miguel Vargas yesterday against the Cincinnati Reds, and while he didn’t cash our +429 value pick, we’re heading right back to that matchup. We’re also not going far, as it’s the guy right next to him on our MLB home run picks radar - the White Sox shortstop/DH (the parlay leg that didn’t hit, so the ONLY name in the entire article that didn’t hit one). 

After seeing lefty Nick Lodolo on the mound yesterday, we now see a righty in Rhett Lowder, and a struggling one at that. Specifically against lefties, as he’s allowed all but one of his homers to southpaws this year. We’ve also been noting this factor all season - the Reds have one of the poorest bullpens this year.

The powerful SS/DH also has 18 of his 26 homers vs. righties this year, so let’s lead off our best MLB home run picks for today with Colson Montgomery hitting a HR (+288 at Novig).

Julio Rodriguez (+465)

We’ve been all about the Chicago Cubs so far this week, and we want to quickly note that they are in an awesome spot for more homers today. However, we’re going to switch things up with a guy that we haven’t targeted much this season. Now’s the time to do so, as Yankee Stadium always welcomes MLB home run picks cashing.

More importantly, the Yankees are at the point in their rotation where it’s not Cam Schlittler or Gerrit Cole, but rather Will Warren. He’s just not great overall, and we love seeing his 9th percentile average exit velocity of over 90 mph against Julio’s 95th percentile bat speed. The centerfielder also doesn’t have a drastic split difference in terms of righties and lefties.

He can hit both equally well, so let’s enjoy this righty-on-righty crime with our best MLB home run picks today by adding to the card with Julio Rodriguez hitting a HR (+465 at BetMGM).

Mickey Moniak (+483)

We hit our play in the +400s yesterday, just discussed another one, and the price for this one almost feels criminal. Sure, the lefty isn’t at home in Coors Field, but we don’t mind being in Arizona either. After all, Corbin Carroll went yard last night for us. Rather than picking on Tomoyuki Sugano for MLB home run picks, now we’re picking on Merrill Kelly.

We could write an entire article on just his struggles this season, but let’s just sum it up with his 1st percentile xERA of 6.98, 3rd percentile barrel rate, and 10th percentile hard-hit rate allowed. The Diamondbacks righty has also allowed 15 of his 23 homers to lefties, and this southpaw has drastic splits (.602 slugging and 17 of his 19 homers vs. righties).

He and Montgomery are similar hitters where not all underlying numbers are Yordan Alvarez-level, but we still love adding to our best MLB home run picks for today with Mickey Moniak hitting a HR (+483 at Courtside).

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!

 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

Our top three MLB home run picks are where we’re putting our focus for today’s slate, but that doesn’t mean that there isn’t more value to be had. So, here’s our top longshot target!

To make it back-to-back longshot winners, we’re heading out west to Dodger Stadium. Do not let Edman’s three homers fool you - he is known for lefty-on-lefty success, and the Royals are starting Daniel Lynch tonight. It’s not as long as last night’s winner, but we still love our best MLB home run longshot pick on the second baseman.

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

To expand on “more value,” let’s keep the huge plus-money action rolling with a for-fun parlay. Continue adding to our top MLB home run picks today with the combo below!

That combo is one that we love, but if you just want to combo our first three names, that certainly works as well! It also works if you just want to make an individual play on one of the guys directly below; just use our best MLB home run picks for today in whatever way you see the most value!