We’re just two games into the ALDS/NLDS action, which means that top arms are still available, but we still hit with our MLB home run picks yesterday thanks to Jackson Chourio! That’s what we’re all about to bring to the best value, especially if you aren’t able to root for your favorite team right now. Even if they are still alive, why not make the postseason even more exciting? Let’s add to a loaded NFL Sunday with our best MLB home run predictions for today!

You’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. Make sure that you also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

 

⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

Since not every spot is ideal for MLB home run picks, you can enjoy more coverage of the ALDS/NLDS with our MLB expert picks. If you just want to add some basic game markets to the mix, some K props or otherwise, there is plenty to love with the playoffs going on. We also love that you can check out our top MLB home run predictions below before we get into the full breakdowns…

 

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 10/4: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

Before we fully dive into the aforementioned breakdowns for those three names specifically, there are overall factors that impact MLB home run picks. Those always begin with our MLB weather report, especially not that the weather is changing in most parts of the country. LA may stay more consistent than others, but it’s still important to check!

It’s also important to check the underlying metrics for both pitchers and hitters. That means going beyond the box scores with data like barrel rates, hard-hit rates, average exit velocities, righty/lefty splits and more. Even though the worst of the worst bullpens are no longer alive, some are still better for MLB home run picks than others!

Jake Bauers (+625)

We focused on a key combination last night: the Milwaukee Brewers and the right side of the plate. That was the right call, as both Jackson Chourio and William Contreras went yard. We had that focus with Robbie Ray on the mound, and for the best MLB home run picks today, we need to make one key swap.

That would be swapping to the left side of the plate, as the San Diego Padres are now starting a righty - Michael King. He is known as a ground-ball pitcher, but he also won’t have the luxury of pitching at home today. Also, the Milwaukee first baseman has a .215 ISO vs. lefties, so he can certainly overcome what King is known for.

Let’s see some run support come in for Logan Henderson by hitting another one of our MLB home run picks in Milwaukee with Jake Bauers hitting a HR (+625 at bet365). 

Ronald Acuna, Jr. (+506)

You saw that we were all about the NLDS matchups yesterday, which makes today more exciting than what’s to come tomorrow. Well, that’s our projection at least, and although we pivoted away from Max Muncy to Shohei Ohtani last night and the former went deep, we’re back to Braves vs. Dodgers with our top MLB home run picks today.

If you’d like a pivot with some massive value, taking Michael Harris here is very tempting; he’s an excellent lefty vs. lefty hitter. That’s what the Braves are facing today in Blake Snell, and while he’s been strong since his return from injury, he has his moments. With this righty having a .604 slugging vs. lefties since August 1, that’s exactly what we want to see.

It’s exactly what we want to see to add to our best MLB home run picks for today with Ronald Acuna, Jr. hitting a HR (16.5%, so +506, at Novig). 

 

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!

 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

Our top MLB home run picks and FREE newsletter bonus pick are more than enough to lock in, but if you still want more, here’s our favorite longshot option for today…

The combo of the Brew Crew and the left side of the plate is back! This also displays just how much of a misprice the Bauers play is, but regardless, the same reasoning holds true. In fact, Turang’s ISO is even higher vs. righties than Bauers is, making this an amazing MLB home run longshot pick!

 

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

Are you STILL wanting more action? No problem! We’re also piecing together these three MLB home run picks into a for-fun parlay for today…

A pivot to the other team in Padres vs. Brewers and a pair from Braves vs. Dodgers - what could go wrong? Chourio treated us right last night, so let’s not have anything going wrong at all! Enjoy our best MLB home run picks for today alongside all your NFL best bets!