With the Wild Card series being just best-of-threes, we’ve only been able to make MLB home run picks for the first two days of the postseason. That said, we cashed BOTH of our FREE newsletter bonus picks and made it a trio of winners in just two days with Kyle Schwarber on top of those two! Now, it’s time to do even better for the Divisional Round. We’ve had the time to break down these new series, so let’s enjoy them to the fullest with our best MLB home run predictions for today.

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⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

The matchups for the ALDS/NLDS were largely known nice and early, and as for ways to make some MLB expert picks beyond MLB home run picks, we’ve known that Jacob Misiorowski and Drew Rasmussen would be starters for a bit now. Those guys are at home, and we also have the Los Angeles Dodgers in front of the LA faithful. Dodger Stadium is a great spot for MLB home run predictions, so let’s see if that series made the cut…

 

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 10/3: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

Dodger Stadium is great for homers overall, and by checking our MLB weather report we can see if it’s even better today specifically. Speaking of “today” rather than “tonight,” we see that we have afternoon and evening action, which also factors in for MLB home run picks. Of course, so do the starters on the mound.

We already mentioned The Miz and Rasmussen, but we’ll break down all eight of them with their righty/lefty splits, barrel and hard-hit rates allowed and more. The hitters opposing those starters have many of the same metrics to break down plus launch angles, and don’t forget - bullpens are also huge factors for MLB home run picks.

Jackson Chourio (+490)

We’ve known that Jacob Misiorowski was starting for the Brew Crew for a while now, but we had to wait a bit for the San Diego Padres to name Robbie Ray as their starter. This was already the series that immediately came to mind alongside Braves vs. Dodgers as one to attack for MLB home run picks, and now we know exactly how to do so.

That’s because Ray being a lefty gives us a target that we absolutely live in Milwaukee. As much as we’ve appreciated Jake Bauers homers this year and even some Brice Turang action, it’s the powerful righty that we want against the southpaw on the mound. The left fielder has a whopping .242 ISO vs. lefties for us to support!

So, we absolutely love leading off our best MLB home run picks for today with Jackson Chourio hitting a HR (+490 at FanDuel). 

Junior Caminero (+375)

Before we dive into the other NLDS, let’s enjoy the ALDS that is also an AL East rivalry. We know that Aaron Judge won’t be a part of this one, but there are still other worthy targets for sure. We’ve already shared that Drew Rasmussen is starting for Tampa Bay, but we're focused on Gerrit Cole for some MLB home run picks.

There is no doubt that he’s had a fantastic season that could have been much worse following injury, but as any Yankees fan will tell you, Cole absolutely has his moments of allowing some huge power. We’re talking about multiple homers in a single inning, and this is a hitter that can start that in the bottom of the first.

The Rays third baseman, believe it or not, has displayed more power righty vs. righty (.264 ISO) this season, so we love adding to our top MLB home run picks today with Junior Caminero hitting a HR (+375 at bet365). 

Shohei Ohtani (+350)

Like the Padres vs. Brewers series, we’ve known the home team’s starter for Braves vs. Dodgers for a while now - Tarik Skubal for Los Angeles. Not only did we have to wait longer for Atlanta’s, but they were also the last of the eight teams to name theirs overall - they were the ones who needed a Game 3 to be fair.

Either way, that should further help LA cash some MLB home run picks, as if their star-studded lineup needed the help, especially at home. The bigger question mark is the health of Shohei Ohtani. We saw him less than 100% down the stretch, but he was back for LA’s final five games and had five hits over that stretch.

That’s not some generational stat that we’re used to seeing for him, but after that plus another week to get even healthier, we love the price we’re getting to add to our best MLB home run picks for today with Shohei Ohtani hitting a HR (+350 at bet365). 

 

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!

 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

Remember, we hit our FREE newsletter bonus picks in back-to-back days to start the Wild Card Round! Let’s start doing that with the longshot addition to our MLB home run picks…

This may not be our longest of longshots, but it’s a clear pivot from Junior Caminero and simply an amazing price for an amazing hitter. Sure, he may not be known for as much power as his teammate, but he can absolutely go yard against any pitcher. So, we’re back to the AL East rivalry with our best MLB home run longshot pick for today!

 

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

The most difficult approach but the one that has the biggest potential payout is a for-fun parlay. Here are the MLB home run picks that we’re piecing together for one of those…

That’s two clear pivots with an option on the other team but the same game sandwiched in between. It’s how we want to round out the first day of the Divisional Round; let’s cash in with MLB home run picks and make it the best weekend yet!