As analytics in baseball continue to evolve, they’re making a push into the vernacular of not only avid fantasy baseball players, but with new enthusiasts. Terms like spin rate, weighted statistics and the topic today, exit velocity, continue to move to the forefront in analysis along with receiving coverage in telecasts. If one does not understand exit velocity, here’s a primer.

Starting with a definition, according to Statcast, the site which initiates and monitors much of the new analytical data in baseball, exit velocity measures the speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact. It’s tracked for all batted ball events (BBE) including outs, hits and errors.

For hitters, a high exit velocity, ideally at 95 MPH or higher, tends to yield positive results. Of course, former players can attest some of their best batted balls do not translate to hits when their an “at ‘em” ball, but the higher the exit velocity, the better chance for a positive result.

Not only does exit velocity identify players with the ability to make hard contact, it can be used to discern if a player’s due for positive migration to the mean when in a slump. For instance, last year Manny Machado incurred a rough start to the season. He slumped early on and finished the first half with a .230/.296/.445 slash line with 18 home runs in 330 at-bats (one every 18.3) but with a 40.2 percent hard hit rate.

Savvy fantasy owners made offers, in leagues with trading, for Manny Machado when looking at his past production along with his “bad luck” in the first half. After the All-Star break, Machado hit .290/.326/.500 with 15 home runs in 300 at-bats (one every 20) and a 38.8 hard hit percentage. He actually hit the ball harder in the first half, but his numbers moved towards the mean fueling his BABIP to rebound by over 50 points.

Not only can exit velocity help highlight players of interest, but it can be used as a part of a process which includes contact, on-base ability and other factors, with each one playing a part in the overall evaluation before buying into a player. In order to illustrate this, a look at the leaders from the last three seasons with notes of interest will be explored. There will be names among the leaders which give us pause, and some players provided a glimpse of upside which went overlooked. It’s an imperfect science, but as Richard Gregory quoted to us, “Intelligence is the art of being able to guess correctly.”

Here are the leaders from 2015, the first year Statcast tracked exit velocity. In order to differentiate results, they’re ranked by fly ball and line drive exit velocity, since ground balls do not go over fences, 95 MPH-plus exit velocity amounts and then the percentage of these batted ball results compared with their total batted ball events.

When perusing the top three names on the list, there are no surprises except this did provide a glimpse of the power breakthrough Joey Gallo accomplished last year. Many will overlook Randal Grichuk this season, but with health and some luck, 30 home runs could happen with his move to Toronto as long as he receives a clear path to playing time. His teammate, Justin Smoak appears on this list two years too soon to predict his breakout from last season. Smoak’s power seems real, however, use his expected averages (.268/.354/.543) from last year to gain a realistic view, but his xHR of 39.4 suggests more growth in power could be possible.

Two names of note who do not appear on this list but were within the top-25 of 2015, Mikie Mahtook and Kyle Schwarber. Mahtook finished last year strong and in his 75 batted ball events from two seasons ago, his fly ball and line drive exit velocity averaged 96.3 MPH with 33 events at 95 MPH, 44 percent of the time. As for Schwarber, he recorded 156 batted ball events with a 96.2 MPH average exit velocity for his fly balls and line drives with 65 events in the 95 MPH-plus range for a 41.7 percent rate.

Now, on to 2016 with some repeat customers and new faces.

It seems silly, and with an injury to his quad along with losing outfield eligibility in many formats, Nelson Cruz could be drafted at a reduced cost this season. He led the way in terms of exit velocity on fly balls and line drives in 2016 after finishing ninth in the previous season. Of course, to save frustration, David Ortiz did head the list, but he’s retired and not on fantasy radars any longer. Cheers Big Papi.

Two names appear in the list above with differing results. Tommy Pham rode his small sample size of success from 2016, along with eye surgery and adjustments, to a terrific 23 home run, 25 stolen base season in only 128 games with a .306/.411/.520 slash line. Limited quantities do not always translate into results, and Pham did see his hard-hit percentage drop by seven percent in 2017, but if looking at the leaderboard of players with at least 50 batted ball events in 2016, Pham may not have been overlooked.

This spring, Mac Williamson is putting on a power display for the run starved San Francisco Giants. There’s no telling if he can carry this over to a full season of play. However, if some past results indicate future success like a Smoak or Pham, it means Williamson could be in play in deeper leagues or league-only formats if he breaks camp with the team.

Other names of interest just missing this list include Nick Castellanos, Christian Yelich, Domingo Santana and Preston Tucker. Castellanos carried over his 94 MPH average exit velocity from 2016 to last year for a total of 26 home runs including 16 in the second half in only 291 at-bats (one every 18.2) and a .254 isolated power. He’s a name to remember at third base this year, with added outfield eligibility, before the tiers run out.

Christian Yelich will move to a hitter-friendly environment, Miller Park, where he does not need to change his approach to benefit from the fly balls he hit at 96.6 MPH in this sample. His 95 MPH-plus percentage of 50.3 makes him a sneaky power upside play going forward as a Brewer. Teammate Domingo Santana showed signs of his breakout below this list with an average fly ball and line drive exit velocity of 96.5 MPH and 53.8 percent of his batted ball events with a 95 MPH-plus rating. Last, but not least, Preston Tucker could start this year for the Braves. He endured an injury-riddled season last year but, in 2016 he displayed the ability to hit his fly balls and line drives at an average of 96.3 MPH and reaching the 95 MPH-plus barrier 41.5 percent of the time. His new ballpark in Atlanta will suit his swing well and players in NL-only formats could profit with a cheap investment.

Here’s last year’s chart with two Yankees players leading the way:

Quiet and consistent could summarize Khris Davis who appears on two of the three lists but gets lost within all the hype surrounding other players. It’s players like him who help teams build around power without selling out on batting average. A healthy Ryan Zimmerman meant a productive season with his name popping into the lists, one spot above much ballyhooed J.D. Martinez.

After finishing eighth in 2015 and 11th in 2016, Miguel Cabrera played through injury last year with terrible results. Taking a chance on him at his present average draft position still seems risky, but for those who believe, Cabrera seems like a bounce-back candidate. He still registered a 45.3 percent rate with 95 MPH-plus exit velocity last year of his 362 batted ball events, but his underlying back problems will come into play if reaching for him.

Willie Calhoun led many lists as a player to target in late-rounds for power upside, but he’s been sent to Triple-A to either save money or give him more time to try and become a passable defender in the outfield. Since he did get promoted last year, he could stay in the minors for at least a month. Those in AL-only formats can kick the tires on Drew Robinson who did average 96.4 MPH on his exit velocities on his fly balls and line drives last year.

Kyle Schwarber once again just missed the leaderboard but did hit 41.2 percent of his batted ball events at 95 MPH or higher last year. But he’s moving up in average draft position with a strong spring along with reports of his new body. For those seeking a cheaper version, Justin Bour’s battled injury problems in the past, but will hit clean-up for the Marlins with a 95.3 MPH average exit velocity on his fly ball and line drives last year plus he recorded four more 95 MPH-plus events than Schwarber.

Baseball statistics will continue to evolve and how fantasy players digest them should improve over time. Exit velocity alone will not identify breakouts, but it will be a part of the process. For every Tommy Pham, there’s a Pedro Alvarez or Franklin Gutierrez. Use the results wisely and keep in mind these data charts courtesy of our own, Rick Wolf when trying to figure out why fly ball and line drive data fueled the research above:

Home runs and RBI continue to increase, which means fantasy owners will need to adjust players they target on draft day. Of course, this also applies to pitchers as well by getting those who do not allow hard contact, but in an effort to save time, the hitters remained the focus of this article. Stay informed Fantasy Alarm friends.

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com, Fangraphs.com