I hope you’re buckled in, because this week’s main slate is going to be one wild ride. With 7 of the 10 games projected with totals over 60 (and 5 over 65), there are sure to be some points put up across the board. The good news is that this also means there will be opportunities to do some cheap shopping because these games will have a lot of possessions and opportunities for secondary players to get in the action. By picking the right discount players, we can go get the studs that will do a lot of the heavy lifting and print us some money this weekend. Let’s get started!
 

It should go without saying that almost any offensive player in a uniform is an option in the West VIrginia/Texas Tech game (over/under is 73). In the interest of time, I did not include them all in the playbook, though there are a few. But just because Antoine Wesley isn’t in there doesn’t mean I don’t think he will have a great game and put up some good numbers. If you can figure out how to work him in a lineup, go for it. The only exception is T.J. Vasher from Texas Tech, who is doubtful with a sprained knee.
 

Along those lines, as I went through the process for narrowing down the best lineup (which usually involves creating and tweaking about 10-12 different variations), I kept finding myself being especially cheap at RB. WIth all these high powered offenses running primarily through the great QB’s on the slate, I don’t see myself sending money on a RB. This is where I’ll probably try to get by with discounts so I can load up with 2 great QB’s and some of their favorite targets. Like i said in the last paragraph, that doesn’t mean I think Kansas is going to shut down Justice HIll, I’m just saying that if I’m spending that kind of money, I would prefer the play of David Sills for $300 less. As a result, the playbook has a heavy lean towards QB and WR, with mostly less expensive RB.
 

The playbook focuses solely on the main slate (which also includes the afternoon slate). For those that want to play the night slate, it’s basically the mirror image of the morning slate, with lots of low totals and a very run-heavy theme. I’ve included an example lineup below, but the general strategy would be to load up on as many players in the Penn St/Ohio St game as you can afford, as Vegas thinks that game will have 20 more points than any other one on the slate. Spoiler alert - it’s not very easy to do.
 

Of note, Nico Evans is expected to return and comes at a nice discount but you’ll want to keep an eye out for late breaking news regarding his availability. College injury reporting tends to be pretty unreliable at best.
 

What are we waiting for….Let’s jump in!


 

QB Will Grier

WVA

@Tx Tech

$10,800

Risk: Very Low

Upside: Unlimited

He’s the most expensive player out there, but it’s wholly justified. This game will be a track meet and should have video game numbers across the board. Grier has thrown 5 TD’s in two of the three WVA games this year, only throwing 4 in a 52-17 laugher against Youngstown State where he didn’t play the 4th quarter. This will be the first game against an opposing offense that can actually keep up with the Mountaineers, which only increases his ceiling. This game has the potential to be Baker v Mahomes 2.0. Just pay for him.


 

QB Kyler Murray

Okla

Bay

$10,700

Risk: Low

Upside: Very High

Coming off of a slow paced dogfight with Army, I expect the Sooner offense to play at an ever faster tempo than usual. Fortunately, I’m pretty confident that Baylor won’t put together 3 drives that cover 30 minutes of game time. He’s a special weapon in a high-powered offense against a less-than-stellar defense...he should at least be on your radar.


 

QB Kellen Mond

Tx A&M

Ark

$9,200

Risk: Medium

Upside: High

Mond has really established himself as a true dual threat weapon to start this season. He’s had a couple of big games against much better defenses than Arkansas (already had Bama and Clemson). He should have a big game at a price below the big 2, but the risk of a run-heavy attack centered around Trayveon Williams is a limit to his ceiling.


 

QB Trevor Lawrence

Clem

Syr

$8,500

Risk: Medium

Upside: High

Welcome to the big time Trevor! With full control of the reigns to this offense, and a discounted price, Lawrence makes some sense if you wanted to fade the super expensive guys. Vegas (and I) think this game will be fairly high scoring, but it may limit his ceiling if Syracuse can’t keep up. I think they can score enough to keep Lawrence active on offense and might make this closer than most people think.


 

QB David Blough

Purd

@Neb

$7,600

Risk: Medium

Upside: High

Another guy who has had the reigns handed to him is Blough, who took over full time and appears to have “Wally Pipp’d” Elijah Sindelar with his massive performance two weeks ago against Mizzou. He followed that up with another solid effort in a whitewashing of a solid BC team last week. DOn’t forget he’s in the Jeff Brohm offense that brought us all of those Western Kentucky high powered offenses. It’s definitely a pass first system and his price is great to par with one of the big guys as a S-Flex.


 

QB Eric Dungey

Syr

@Clem

$6,300

Risk: High

Upside: High

Another super discounted pair-up would be Dungey.The matchup with Clemson has his price (and ceiling) depressed. I think his price is more depressed than his ceiling, as he managed 280+ yards passing and 3 TDs, plus another 70 or so on the ground last year in this matchup. Mobile quarterbacks have been know to give fits to defenses built like Alabama and Clemson, and DUngey definitely fits that mold. Don’t get me wrong, he’s not going to have 5 TD upside, but he can have a solid game at a cheap price for a QB2.


 

RB Justice Hill

Okla St

@Kansas

$9,100

Risk: Low

Upside: Very High

Easily the best RB on the slate, he has a great matchup and there is minimal risk involved here. As I mentioned in the intro, unfortunately, at his price tag, I can’t see a way to fit him if you spend for 2 QB’s. If you fade a second QB, he’s a lock for 100 and a score.


 

RB Pooka Williams

Kansas

Okla St

$6,100

Risk: High

Upside: High

The other side of this atchup has an explosive freshman in Pooka WIlliams, who has speed for days. He’s the clear number 1, having overtaken Khalil Herbert, but let’s face it, the Kansas offense is limited. He is capable of hitting a homerun every time he touches it, so his ceiling is pretty high.


 

RB JaMycal Hasty

Bay

@Okla

$4,400

Risk: Medium

Upside: Good

He’s the best playmaker in this backfield, but some off the field issues have held him back. He was suspended for the first half last week and still managed to lead the Bears in rushing, despite only getting 5 second half carries. Some of that was gameflow related, but if he can get 10 touches he can easily return his value.


 

RB Markel Jones

Purd

@Neb

$4,000

Risk: High

Upside: Good

Another value play that’s splitting time with DJ Knox, Joes can alleviate some salary and is still a useful piece of a good offense. He’s defnitely second fiddle, but sees action in the pass gameas well, so at his price, you’re going to be banking on huge games elsewhere.


 

RB Sa’Rodorick Thompson

Tx Tech

WVA

$3,700

Risk: High

Upside: Good

Thompson comes with quite a bit of risk because I don’t even think Cliff Kingsbury knows who’s going to be in the backfield this weekend (or any weekend), but he did get 13 carries last week and is the third leading rusher for Tech on the year. At his price with this shootout looming, he’s certainly someone to give a long look to for salary relief.


 

RB Trey Ragas

ULL

Bama

$3,500

Risk: Very High

Upside: OK

Ok, this is purely a cost-savings recommendation, BUT he is a talented running back that is the focal point of an offense. Yes, that offense is above average at best and they’re going to struggle mightily against Bama, but you know he’ll get 20 touches and probably a handful of them will be screens and who knows, maybe he’ll even score. Bottom line, you won’t find a player more central to their teams offensive success for $3500 than Ragas. Volume from this value is intriguing.


 

RB Chubba Hubbard

Ok St

@Kansas

$3,000

Risk: Very High

Upside: Functional

If you need to scrape the bottom of the cost pool, Hubbard has some upside. He sees regular snaps in the offense, but could also be looking at some garbage time this week. He’s also a returner on special teams so he may pick up a score that way as well. Best case scenaro is that he manages a handful of touches during normal gameflow and breaks a big run in mop up time, but hey, he’s minimum.You get what you pay for...


 

RB Tavien Feaster

Clem

Syr

$4,100

Risk: Medium

Upside: Good

Much like Markel Jones and Hasty, Feaster fits the same mold. He’s a non-central part of a committee that has a good matchup and a cheap pricetag. Someone to consider.


 

WR David Sills V

WVA

A&M

$8,800

Risk: Low

Upside: Very High

If you told me that David Sills scored 5 TD’s in this game, I would never think you were lying. It wouldn’t surprise me at all. No I’m not predicting it, but I’m just saying it’s not impossible. It’s hard for me to pass on that kind of upside, regardless of price. There’s a real chance that a Grier/Sills combo wins a bunch of money tomorrow.


 

WR Rondale Moore

Purd

@Neb

$8,000

Risk: Medium

Upside: Very High

What a revelation this kid has been this year. Lightning quick and seeing a high volume of targets playing in the slot, he’s an option every week. He actually lines up pretty well to pair with Blough alongside one of the big QBs.


 

WR Marquise Brown

Okla

Bay

$7,700

Risk: Low

Upside: Very High

Surely being held without a catch last week has surely made for a long week for this superstar. It also dropped his price quite a bit.He’s just a week removed from a line of 9/191/1 against Iowa State. That seems like a much more favorable comp than the goose egg against Army.


 

WR Ja’Deion High

Tx Tech

WVA

$6,700

Risk: Medium

Upside: Very High

A guy I really like this week is High. Vasher isn’t expected to play, so he will become the defacto number two behind Wesley and he has been a big redzone target for Alan Bowman. Feels kind of like a broken record, but this game should be a shootout and there are catches, yards, and scores to go around and High could be a discounted star this week.


 

WR TJ Simmons

WVA

@Tx Tech

$4,000

Risk: High

Upside: Very High

Much the same mold as High, Simmons is a guy I really like. SUre, he gets outshadowed by Sills, Jennings, and Simms, but Simmons is a home run hitter and could break a couple this week. He has great value at $4k, so I find him in many of my lineup scenarios.

 

WR Nykeim Johnson

Syr

@Clem

$3,800

Risk: High

Upside: High

If you’re convinced Clemson is going to dominate Syracuse,you can skip down to the lineups now. If you’re still reading, Johnson is going to be one of the next big receiving stars for the Orange. He started the season dinged up, but is coming off of a 7 catch performance.

 

WR Devin Butler

Syr

@Clem

$3,300

Risk: Very High

Upside: Good

So he’s been a massive disappointment this year, being labeled as the top wide receiver coming in but not living up to any of the hype. That said, he’s still got all the talent in the world and he’s $3,300. Realistically he’s just a dart through based on talent, but at $3300, you can do worse.
 

Main Example Lineup:
 

QB - Will Grier - $10,900

RB - Trey Ragas - $3,500

RB - SaRodorick Thompson - $3,700

WR - David Sills V - $8,800

WR - Rondale Moore - $8,200

WR - TJ Simmons - $4,000

Flex - Devin Butler - $3,300

S-Flex - David Blough - $7,600
 

Main Example Lineup:
 

QB - Will Grier - $10,900

RB - Tavien Feaster - $4,100

RB - Trey Ragas - $3,500

WR - David Sills V - $8,800

WR - Ja’Deion High - $6,700

WR - Nykeim Johnson - $3,800
Flex - Isaiah Zuber - $5,800

S-Flex - Eric Dungey - $6,300
 

Main Example Lineup:
 

QB - Kyler Murray - $10,700

RB - JaMycal Hasty - $4,400

RB - SaRoderick Thompson - $3,700

WR - Marquise Brown - $7,700

WR - Jamal Custis - $4,400

WR - Justyn Ross - $4,100
Flex - TJ Simmons - $7,600

S-Flex - Will Grier - $10,900
 

Afternoon Example Lineup:
 

QB - Kyler Murray - $10,700

RB - JaMycal Hasty - $4,400

RB - Markel Jones - $4,000

WR - Marquise Brown - $7,700

WR - Rondale Moore - $8,200

WR - Dalton Schoen - $3,400
Flex - Terry Wright - $3,800

S-Flex - David Blough - $7,600
 

Night Example Lineup:
 

QB - Dwayne Haskins - $10,200

RB - Nico Evans - $4,500

RB - Alexander Mattison - $6,300

WR - Jonathan Lloyd - $4,900

WR - Terry McLaurin - $5,500

WR - Sean Savoy - $3,300
Flex - J.J Arcega-Whiteside - $7,700

S-Flex - Shawn Robinson - $7,700
 

FanDuel

Here are some lineups/thoughts for the FanDuel main slate as well.  There are a few added games to this slate so you’ll see some new names/faces. It actually helps us with the math needed to get a lineup with both Grier and Murray, so that’s our best. If you prefer the FD game, we got you covered:
 

QB - Will Grier - $10,600

S-Flex - QB Kyler Murray - $10,500
 

We’ll be heavily banking on big games from these two,but it’s always reassuring to have the best two players on the slate in your lineup.
 

RB - Jatarvious Whitlow - $8,800

RB - SaRoderick Thompson - $6,000

Since we have the two big QB’s now it’s time to hunt values. We get a solid deal on Whitlow,who has taken over the lead back duties for run-heavy Auburn against overmatched Southern Miss. He could score three times before half. We pair him with a sweetheart deal on Thompson, who we’ve mentioned already.

 

WR - David Sills V - $10,0000

WR - Quez Watkins - $7,400
WR - TJ Simmons - $6,000

 

We get a great deal on the big fish in a small pond in Quez Watkins - the kid can play. His team will be overmatched and it will probably hurt his production, but by discount shopping with him and Simmons again, we can also fit Sills with Grier.