MLB DFS Hitting Coach: July 28
Published: Jul 28, 2021
What’s up FANation?? We have an 11-game main slate today and it looks interesting. The Blue Jays and Red Sox do have a double-header though and will only play a seven inning game, so that’s something to keep in mind. Let’s dive in to some of my favorite options on offense today, shall we?!
Shohei Ohtani, LAA – Ohtani is very very expensive, but there are plenty of nice cheap bat plays today to help balance him out and we all know what Ohtani brings to the table as he is currently hitting .276 with 14 steals, 78 RBI, 70 runs, and an MLB-leading 36 dingers. He has been more productive at home this season too, slashing .274/.391/.707, compared to .278/.332/.659 on the road. Sure, the average is a whopping .004 points higher on the road, but note the big differences in OBP and SLG. He has been hot at the dish for a while now too, hitting .293 with 19 home runs (!), 33 RBI, and five steals over his last 33 games. Yes, 19 home runs in his last 33 games. For context, that would be 93 home runs if he kept that pace over a 162 game season. Today he faces a pitcher with a 6.06 ERA and 1.6 HR/9 in Gonzalez and lefties are hitting .309 against him this year. Even if the Angels knock out Gonzalez early, he gets to face the Rockies pen which has the second worst ERA in all of baseball.
Willy Adames, MIL – Adames continues to shine with the Brew Crew as he is not hitting .291 with 11 home runs, 16 doubles, 39 RBI, and 36 runs scored across 57 games since being traded to the Brewers. He has major reverse splits, slashing .270/.351/.477 against righties, compared to .216/.296/.443 against lefties. He is slashing .312/.368/.535 on the road this season. Today he gets to face a low-tier righty in Kranick in a hitter-friendly environment in Pittsburgh. Kranick has a 5.73 ERA through the first three starts of his career with a 1.36 WHIP.
Joey Votto, CIN – Votto is out of this world hot right now with home runs in four straight games and five home runs in that span after launching a pair last night. He is hitting .448 with six home runs and 13 RBI over his last eight games. He has done nearly all of his damage against righties this season, slashing .299/.400/.603 against them with 15 home runs, compared to .214/.290/.357 against lefties with just two home runs. Davies hasn’t been great with a 4.30 ERA, 4.65 FIP, and 1.49 WHIP. Left-handed bats have launched four home runs in 161 at-bats against him, compared to the five that righties have hit in 225 at-bats. Votto has also dominated this head-to-head matchup, going 11-31 (.355) with a home run in his career against Davies.
Brendan Rodgers, COL – Right back to the well today with Rodgers after I had him in the Playbook and Core Plays yesterday and he delivered with 23 points on DK (2-5, solo home run, walk, three runs scored). Rodgers is slashing .304/.373/.674 against lefties with five home runs in 46 at-bats, compared to .252/.318/.370 against righties with two home runs across 119 at-bats. Unlike all other Rockies hitters, Rodgers has actually been better on the road, slashing .275/.348/.525 away from Coors Field, compared to .259/.319/.388 at home. Today he gets to face an overrated lefty in Heaney, who has an ugly 5.35 ERA and 1.5 HR/9. Righties have accounted for 13 of the 15 home runs that he has given up this season and even if the Rockies chase Heaney early, the Angels bullpen has the seventh worst ERA this season.
Eloy Jiménez, CWS – His price is just going to continue to slowly climb up until we see him back in the top-tier price range to match the elite talent that he is, but until that happens Jimenez is pretty much a daily play and we saw exactly why that is last night when he racked up 21 points on DK by going 2-4 with a three-run dinger. Today he gets to face Bubic, who has a 4.72 ERA, 5.76 FIP, 1.50 WHIP, and 1.8 HR/9 this season. Righties are hitting .270 against him with 11 home runs, compared to the .222 average that lefties have produced with three home runs. And even if Bubic is removed early, the Royals bullpen has the eighth worst ERA this season.
Greg Allen, NYY – Allen has been fantastic through 10 games with the Yankees, hitting .296 with three doubles, a triple, two RBI, seven runs, and FIVE stolen bases. He is currently averaging 9.4 DK points per game, which is great at his near minimum price. He has been far better against right-handed pitchers for his career, slashing .249/.317/.372 against them, compared to .217/.273/.280 against lefties. Wacha has been pretty terrible this season with a 5.16 ERA, 5.08 FIP, 1.34 WHIP, and 1.9 HR/9. If he picks up a hit or two with a swipe (as he is clearly running at a high rate right now), he would smash this price point.