Top-Tier
Jacob deGrom, NYM – deGrom is coming off his worst outing of the season... a six-inning two-run performance with five strikeouts...a very strong performance by human standards, but deGrom isn’t human and that’s why we roll with him on days he’s pitching. He has a microscopic 0.69 ERA, 0.99 FIP, 0.53 WHIP, and has struck out 122 over 78 innings pitched for an absurd 14.1 K/9. He even has seven wins this season. The Braves have the 10th highest strikeout rate over the last 14 days at 24.2-percent. He faced the Braves two starts ago and fired five one-hit shutout innings with six strikeouts while picking up the victory. He is the best pitcher on the planet and there is very little (or none at all) risk in using him tonight.
Corbin Burnes, MIL – Burnes hasn’t quite been deGrom, but he’s been very good in his own rights, pitching to a 2.53 ERA, 1.19 FIP, 0.92 WHIP, and striking out 115 across 74.2 innings pitched. He only has three wins though. He faced the Pirates a couple of starts ago and struggled, pitching four innings and giving up nine hits and three runs, but he did have eight punch-outs. We shouldn’t see a repeated struggle as that was more of a hiccup and the Pirates still rank dead last in all of baseball in runs per game with a mark of 3.51 and they’ve only scored a TOTAL of TWO runs over their last THREE games. Burnes will be locked-in tonight and he is a great option if fading deGrom or if going pocket aces and hoping to hit on value bats.
Mid-Tier
Johnny Cueto, SF – Cueto is having his best season since 2018 as he has a 3.63 ERA and 3.80 FIP. He also has six wins in 12 starts. He is coming off a great start in which he fired seven shutout innings against the As with six strikeouts. The Dbacks are hitting just .222 over the last 14 days, which is 26th in the league. He wasn’t great in an earlier start against the Dbacks this season, pitching five innings and giving up four runs while striking out five, but he should be better this time around. That being said, I don’t think I would use him over Anderson, who has more upside and a cheaper price tag.
Ian Anderson, ATL – Anderson is having a great season and is underpriced on today’s slate. He has a 3.42 ERA, 3.22 FIP, with 88 strikeouts and 81.2 innings pitched. He has a good matchup today as the Mets currently rank 29th in runs per game this season, averaging just 3.58 per contest. They also have the third-highest strikeout rate over the last 14 days with a 26.8-percent rate and they are just .199 in that span as a team, which is 29th in the league. He faced the Mets two starts ago and was dominant, firing 5.1 shutout innings with five strikeouts and picking up the win. His chances of a win may not be great, going up against deGrom, but he should pitch well and his cheap price tag should pay off in a big way.
Bargain Bin
Antonio Senzatela, COL – Senzatela isn't a very good pitcher and that’s why he lands in this section, but the matchup isn't bad and there is a chance he could be a value play tonight. Yes, it’s a Coors game, but he’s actually been way better at Coors this year than on the road with a 3.91 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, compared to a 6.35 ERA and 1.80 WHIP on the road. The Cardinals offense averages just 3.94 runs per game this season, which ranks 28th in baseball and they are hitting just .209 as a team over the last 14 days, which is 28th in the league. In that same span, they’ve only scored 42 runs, which is only more than the Mets and Cubs. Don’t expect Senzatela to have a massive night, but he could be rock solid at a very cheap price tag.