Although predicting what type of baseball will be used in the major leagues, there’s no denying the power of Matt Olson . Despite missing 34 games with a hamate injury in his hand on a foul ball, he finished first among all American League first basemen with 36 in only 483 at-bats (one every 13.42 at-bats). For some good news, Olson’s averaged a home run every 14.07 at-bats over his first three years in the majors and will turn 26 in March, thus entering the precipice of his power peak.

This will be bad news for opposing pitchers. Olson mashed 11 of his 36 dingers versus left-handed pitching. He cut down his ground ball rate for the second straight year recording a career low 31.4 percent in 2019. His line drive percentage jumped to 24 percent and Olson finished with a 44.6 fly ball rate. Within his improved fly ball to ground ball ratio, Olson stabilized his plate discipline with a 11.1 swinging strike percentage and slightly improving his contact percentage to 75 last season.

Shifting to Statcast, Olson continues to stand out among his peers. He racked up 50 barrels among his 346 batted ball events resulting in a 14.5 barrel percentage. Olson’s average exit velocity of 91.9 MPH last year ranked 16th in the majors while his .576 expected slugging percentage sat within the top five percent. Here’s his zone profiles courtesy of the site:

Not only increasing his fly ball percentage, Olson ranked in the top two percent of the league with a 50.3 hard hit rate. He also upped his launch angle for the second straight season from 15.7 degrees in 2017, to 17.8 degrees in 2018 and 18.3 degrees in 2019. Check out his spray chart from the last three years including all line drives and fly balls in this time frame:

While many of his home runs occurred in right and right-center field, Olson can hit to the opposite field. This could result in a slight uptick in average if he continues to go with the pitch. His heat map displays a concentration of his batted ball data, but it also shows he can drive the ball to all fields:

Among players with at least 1,000 plate appearances the last three years, Olson ranks 12th with a .261 isolated power. He’s also matched Marcell Ozuna with 89 home runs in this same time frame, but with 429 fewer plate appearances. Both could be values this year in draft’s for different reasons. Many owners will only see Olson’s home run total without accounting for his 34 games lost to injury. Bake in his propensity to barrel a baseball, an elite average exit velocity and his age to remember Olson will be a prime target for power in 2020 at a reduced cost. How reduced will depend on the draft, but it will probably take a pick in the sixth round to secure him on a roster. This price will fluctuate depending on how high the stakes in the league are along with league size.

Steamer’s early projection predicts Olson to accrue 544 at-bats with 89 runs, 37 home runs, 99 RBI and a stolen base with a .254/.343/.513 slash line. Remembering his three year rates above, his slash aligns almost directly with hit, but there’s potential for a repeat of last year’s .267 average. Olson crushes fastballs launching 23 home runs against the with a .283 expected batting average, .572 expected slugging percentage and .400 expected weighted on-base average. Hitting in the heart of a loaded A’s lineup will insulate his counting categories as well.

Matt Olson will not be a surprise this year in drafts, but in my estimation, he will be worth the reach to roster. Let others overpay early for Pete Alonso and select Olson up to three-to-four rounds later with the potential for just as much power. If Olson records a full season, a run to 40 home runs or more will be well within reach. Even if baseballs do not fly like they did in 2019, Olson’s power peak can overcome them. Pay for the Steamer projection but profit if he hits 45 home runs, drives in 110 and hits .265 or higher, which remain in reach for Olson in 2020.

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

Steamerprojections.com