As volatile as the stock market, investing in saves continues to be risky business in fantasy baseball. It feels like the category shrinks each season with the analytics push and traditional bullpen roles dissipating. There are committees, high leverage match-up pitchers, openers, effectors and fewer closers. Perhaps no other position reflects recency bias in terms of value from season to season than relief pitching.

Which leads owners to the familiar crossroads, to invest in saves or ride the FAAB wave all season long chasing the closer du jour? Well, like many relationships, it’s complicated. There’s no simple answer other than trusting one’s instincts. In an effort to help discern not only when the dreaded closer run will occur,...