Charlie Morton : Morton was genius Saturday night tossing 7 innings, giving up just 1 run and 4 hits while striking out 14.  Oh, and those 14 K’s came with no walks – sweet!  On the year, Morton has a 2.03 ERA, a WHIP under 1 and is striking out almost 11.5 per nine.  Morton owners are of course overjoyed with this greatness but now face the question:  Is he a sell high candidate?  The advanced metrics say hold.  The velo, swinging strike rate and groundball rate are not only elite but they are even better than last year’s elite levels.  So that answers the question right?  Gotta hold him right?  Not so fast.  Morton is in his 11th major league season and yet has never thrown 175 innings in a season.  Never.  In fact, he has thrown over 150 innings only twice in that lengthy time frame.  So, given that Morton already has 48 innings, can you really count on 100 more innings?  I do not see how you can.  Conclusion:  Feel free to hold Morton and enjoy the quality he brings.  However, if someone is offering you full value (a more durable top pitcher or a stud hitter), I would seriously consider pulling the trigger.       

Miles Mikolas : Mikolas was dealing Thursday.  The Cardinals hurler gave his team and his fantasy owners 6 and 2/3 innings of 1 run ball, giving up 6 baserunners and striking out 4.  On the year, Miles has a sweet 2.51 ERA and a WHIP under 1.  There is more good news in his velo – it is up over 94 which is a big increase from where he sat before heading to the far east.  That said, all is not lemon drops and gum drops for Mikolas.  His strikeout rate is below average at less than 7 per 9, an inflated strand rate and low BABIP say the ERA will rise (indeed his FIP is more than a run higher than his ERA), the swinging strike rate is below average, and his hard hit rate is close to 35% (30 is about average).  Conclusion:  Hold on to Mikolas but expect a negative correction and bake that in to your planning.  If you have the chance to sell at full value, I would seriously consider it.

Francisco Lindor : Lindor had himself a day Saturday going 4-4 with 4 runs, two RBI and two dingers.  Through Saturday that put Lindor’s stats at these lofty figures:  12 dingers; 24 RBI, 33 runs, .376 OBP, .311 average and 5 SB.  What else could one want?  Extrapolating to a full season and assuming we are through approximately 25% of the season (which I know is intellectually dishonest but fun), that puts Lindor at this yearly set of studly numbers:  48 dingers; 96 RBI, 132 runs; and 20 SB.  Given that the BABIP is not really inflated, the hard hit rate is way up, he is going oppo more often (thus not selling out to pull everything for power), there seems to be no reason to doubt Lindor.  Will he hit 48 dingers?  Probably not.  Will he hit 35 with 20 SB and strong counting numbers, believe it and pay the freight.   [Note: Sunday Lindor continued his scalding hot streak going 3-4 with a run and a RBI].

Neil Walker : Walker was the hero Saturday as his 11th inning hit walked the Yankees off to victory.  Walker, who started the year in a horrendous funk has come out of with guns blazing.  In his last seven games, Walker is hitting .300 with a .440 OBP, 6 runs and 3 RBI.  Not too shabby.  His year-long stats through Saturday are not pretty:  .210 average; .557 OPS.   What does this tell me?  Buying opportunity.  Yes, Walker will face some playing time risk IF Greg Bird and/or Brandon Drury come back healthy and IF Miguel Andujar continues to play like a veteran.  However, if there is such a glut, someone will be traded in the pre-ordained Yankee July deal for another starter.  Thus, the question is whether the real Neil Walker is last week’s version or the year-long version.  I say last week’s.  First, watching him play shows a guy who is locked in and finally comfortable with his new role and new team.  Second, the .268 BABIP says he has been unlucky.  Third, the almost 40% hard hit rate says he is lacing the ball.  Fourth, he is hitting precious few automatic out infield flies.  I wouldn’t break the bank for Walker but I would pay the small, depressed price and enjoy the profit that is coming your way if you do. 

Ross Stripling : Stripling gave the Dodgers all they can ask for and more.  Saturday the Dodger hurler went 5 and 2/3 innings giving up 2 runs while striking out 7.  On the year, Stripling has a 2.20 ERA and is averaging almost 10K per 9 IP.  With the Dodgers rotation in shambles – Kershaw hurt; Ryu hurt; Hill often hurt; Wood often hurt; Maeda hardly an iron man; Beuhler a rookie – Stripling should be on your deep league radar.  In his two starts, he has 12 K and 2 BB in just over 10 IP (he is still being stretched out).  Few noticed that last year, Stripling had a K per 9, put up solid advanced metrics and pitched pretty well.  NL only players should pounce on Stripling and 15 team mixer owners should be very interested.      

And now, the moment you have been waiting for -- Schultz says: “A fine roto-maxim that has ample support for and against its validity is that past performance predicts the future. It's simply human nature to avoid certain players simply because their prior seasons were not up to snuff. Why pick up the outfielder that's put up middling subpar stats for the last couple years? He's only going to do the same this year. For the most part, this type of risk avoidance will serve you well in the long run. Nonetheless, it's also good practice to remember whose stats have been depressed due to nagging injuries and pay attention to whether they are healthy.

Former AL-MVP candidate Michael Brantley has surely disappointed those who have been waiting for him to return to his 2014-2015 form. A shoulder injury and two surgeries took Dr. Smooth out of action for 2016 and an ankle injury shelved him for the majority of 2017. Many roto-owners were wary of investing in Brantley at the start of this season due to rumors of lingering maladies. However, this turned out to be much ado about nothing as the Indians bedrock is not only healthy, he's in prime form, hitting .342 with 4 HR 24 RBI.

In the National League, A.J. Pollock has caused many to forget his .315, 20 HR 39 SB season from 2015 simply because he hasn't looked like the same player since breaking his elbow before the start of the 2016 season. A slow recovery and groin injury didn't help Pollock regain his form in 2017 but now, he's as healthy as he's ever been. Those who recall how well a healthy Pollock can be have been rewarded with a hefty .296 11 HR 33 RBI and 8 SB to start the season. 

The Overlord will pithily recite that injury-prone players get injured as if everyone that plays Major League Baseball is Matt Kemp . A nice corollary to that adage would be that quite often injured players heal.”

Response:  In a switch, I only half disagree with Schultz.  I think one cannot pay full value for an injury prone player but one can set a price (say 20-25% below what you would pay for an always healthy Brantley or Pollock) and look to bargain hunt.  Yes, anyone can get hurt, but guys who have spent parts of many seasons on the shelf are more likely to return to the shelf. They just are.  I can roster those talented guys, I just cannot pay full value.