The 2024 NCAA Tournament is finally here! We officially have a March Madness bracket in our hands and it’s time to make some NCAA Tournament predictions. 

Everyone wants to pick that double-digit seed to pull off a March Madness first round upset and look like a genius in the process. Well, this article is for you. Below are four potential upsets to pick in the first round as you fill out those brackets. 

Can 13-seed Samford send Kansas packing? How about 12-seed Grand Canyon over Saint Mary’s? Let’s dive into these March Madness bracket predictions for possible first round upsets in the 2024 NCAA Tournament. 

 

 

 

NCAA Tournament First Round Upset Predictions & Picks: 2024 March Madness Bracket

No. 13 Samford Over No. 4 Kansas (Midwest Region)

Kansas began this season as the AP Poll Preseason No. 1 team and had a 12-1 record in non-conference play with wins over UConn, Tennessee, and Kentucky. However, the Jayhawks are literally limping into the NCAA Tournament bracket and look ripe for an upset now. Without injured stars Kevin McCullar Jr. and Hunter Dickinson, they went one-and-done in the Big 12 tourney – losing by 20 points, no less. 

Both guys could be back for this first round matchup, but we still have to wonder about the lack of cohesion and depth for the Jayhawks coming back to bite them. If one or both are out, though, it’s a nightmare situation for a team that already has a short bench. Either way, this is a Kansas team that’s just 1-4 in its past five games and below .500 since mid-January. 

Samford, meanwhile, is a tough first round opponent for anyone to prepare for – let alone a struggling and, possibly, shorthanded Kansas squad. The Bulldogs play at a super-quick pace, shoot and make a ton of threes, and deploy a full-court press defense. The Southern Conference champs are aggressive on both ends of the floor, play a deep rotation, and won’t back down from KU here. 

Bill Self is a Hall of Fame coach, but his players may have issues adjusting to Samford’s style. Plus, KU has struggled to defend the three all season – which is bad news when facing a team that shoots 39.3% from deep (8th-best in the country).

Finally, a quick history lesson. The SoCon champ has performed well in the first round lately. Furman upset Virginia last year as a 13-seed, Chattanooga lost by one point to Illinois in 2022, and the three previous league reps all covered the spread as underdogs. Samford should follow suit and have a real chance at pulling the upset over a shaky Kansas team. 

 

 

 

No. 10 Drake Over No. 7 Washington State (East Region)

In the first round of last year’s NCAA Tournament bracket, Drake led Miami (FL) by eight points with five minutes to go before ultimately blowing the lead late. Miami would eventually go on to the Final Four while Drake fans were left wondering what could have been. 

Well, the Bulldogs now have a chance to exact revenge against Washington State and the motivation from letting last year’s upset slip away cannot be ignored here. This season’s Drake team rates better overall than last year’s 12-seed – especially offensively. The Bulldogs are 38th nationally in offensive efficiency (per KenPom) while being top-40 in three-point shooting and top-50 in every other notable advanced offensive stat. 

Leading the charge is wing playmaker Tucker DeVries, a sleeper NBA prospect who can score in a variety of ways. DeVries gives Drake a star player to lean on, which is huge for any mid-major team looking to pull a first-round win over a power conference program. The seeding matchup of a No. 10 beating a No. 7 will categorize this as an upset, but the sportsbooks actually have this game closer to a pick’em. 

Washington State, meanwhile, may have peaked at the wrong time when they beat Arizona on the road in late February. Since then, the Cougars let the Pac-12 regular season title slip away and then lost in the conference tournament to Colorado. They’re just 3-3 over the past six games and could get caught off guard by a hungry Drake program. 

 

 

 

No. 12 Grand Canyon Over No. 5 Saint Mary’s (West Region)

The 12-5 upset has been popular for years in the annual NCAA Tournament bracket and it’s usually a smart strategy to pick at least one 12-seed to advance. James Madison and McNeese State could easily do it, but my eye is on Grand Canyon. 

The Antelopes are used to playing as the better team all season long as they dominated the WAC, have a 29-4 record this year, and rate highly in advanced stats. In fact, Grand Canyon enters the Tournament as the highest-rated mid-major team, per the NET Rankings (50th) and KenPom (53rd). The Antelopes boast WAC Player of the Year Tyon Grant-Foster, who gives them a legit difference-maker and stud wing playmaker to lean on. 

Grant-Foster, who averaged 19.8 PPG this season, is a former Kansas transfer with the talent to play at any power conference program. He anchors an athletic team that won’t back down from this first round matchup vs. Saint Mary’s. Grand Canyon also brings experience from playing in last year’s NCAA Tournament first round, where it played Gonzaga tough for 75% of Round of 64 loss. 

It’s worth noting that the Antelopes pulled off an upset of San Diego State back in December this season – which is a good sign of its head-to-head comparison to another 5-seed in this bracket. Saint Mary’s actually lost by 25 to the Aztecs earlier this year. As for Saint Mary’s, it was awesome throughout WCC play en route to regular-season and conference tournament titles. 

Still, the Gaels have had issues matching up with more athletic teams this year and in past Tournaments. This is also a team that began the year 3-5 before turning things around. In their nine previous NCAA appearances, the Gaels have five first round exits, three other second-round losses, and just one Sweet 16. Saint Mary’s tends to underperform in March Madness while Grand Canyon, led by head coach Bryce Drew, will go in thinking it’s the better team. 

 

 

 

No. 11 New Mexico Over No. 6 Clemson (West Region)

A week ago, New Mexico was outside of the NCAA Tournament bracket picture and needed a deep conference tournament run for any chance at a berth. Well, the Lobos went out and took the Mountain West crown – beating San Diego State, Colorado State, and Boise State in three straight nights to earn the auto bid. 

This team is as hot as any in the country and is the strongest 11-seed in the bracket. The NET Rankings (22) and KenPom (23) have the Lobos as a top-25 squad and higher than plenty of other at-large teams. 

Then there’s Clemson, who seems overseeded compared to its questionable resume. The Tigers went 11-9 in a weak ACC this season and then suffered a one-and-done loss to Boston College in the conference tournament last week. Clemson is likely seeded this high because of some big non-con wins and a road victory at North Carolina. Yet, this is an inconsistent team that isn’t playing its best basketball right now. 

The last time Clemson was in the Tournament, it lost in the first round as a 7-seed in 2021. The Tigers now lean on center PJ Hall offensively, but New Mexico boasts the size to slow him down with Nelly Junior Joseph, JT Toppin, and Mustapha Amzil all up to the task. The Lobos’ strength, though, is in their guard play as Jaelen House, Jamal Mashburn Jr., and Donovan Dent share ball-handling and playmaking duties. House is the star and he just scored 28 points in the MWC title game. 

New Mexico also plays at a top-10 pace in the country as head coach Richard Pitino has this team running and scoring quickly. That super-fast tempo is tough to match for a Clemson team that’s 260th in pace this season. Finally, we have to mention that the oddsmakers currently have the No. 11 seed New Mexico as the betting favorite in this matchup – which should tell us something right away. 

 

 

 

March Madness First Round Upsets: Other Picks To Consider

  • No. 9 Texas A&M over No. 8 Nebraska
  • No. 11 Oregon over No. 6 South Carolina
  • No. 10 Nevada over No. 7 Dayton