Optimal lineups for cash games on DraftKings and FanDuel were posted about 2:00 p.m. CT. Below you can find my thoughts on each game.
Let’s start with the Game 5s.
Detroit @ Tampa
In the first two games in Tampa, the Bolts’ top line was the best possession line on either team. Tampa used Valtteri Filppula’s line against Detroit’s top line (which has been in flux this series). Filppula’s line consistently drew opposing top lines in home games throughout the regular season, so we can expect that to continue. That frees Johnson’s lineup for better matchups.
In terms of price, Tampa’s top trio is a tad over-priced, but they’re closer to being appropriately priced on FanDuel. Alex Killorn on DraftKings is the only spot where one of them is grossly over-priced. Johnson and Kucherov play on the top PP unit where they’re joined by defenseman Victor Hedman who is more appropriately priced than any of the forwards. Hedman skated with the top line a lot at even strength in Game 1 but not so much in Game 2, so it’s unclear how much they’ll all be together at even strength.
As for the Wings, unless Gustav Nyquist and Tomas Tatar end up back on a line together, I’m not too interested in Wings. Skating together on the third line in the first two games in Tampa, they did well in the possession game against Tampa’s depth lines. But unless the Wings shift up their lines at morning skate or in warmups, you should probably avoid Wings.
Chicago @ St. Louis
In the first two games of this series, the top lines (centered by Toews and Lehtera) were the best lines in the possession game. Lehtera’s line worked primarily against Chicago depth lines, while Toews’ line saw St. Louis’s third line and third D pair. It was the Panarin/Kane line that drew the attention of St. Louis’ top defensemen. Given that the Blues stuck to these matchups almost exclusively in the first two games, we can safely expect the matchups to be the same tonight.
Chicago seems like they may go with different lines tonight and pair Toews and Kane. If that happens, they'll draw the tougher matchup, and it will be Artem Anisimov's line in the better spot. Anisimov looks like he'll be joined by Artemi Panarin and Teuvo Taravainen.
As for Lehtera’s line, Jaden Schwartz is priced well on both sites (better on FD), Lehtera is priced well on FD but not DK, and Tarasenko is pricey on both sites (more so on FD). They’ll play plenty at even strength with Kevin Shattenkirk, who also joins Schwartz and Tarasenko on the top power play unit. He’s priced well on FD but not DK. With Shattenkirk and Schwartz being priced so well on FD, they’d make it easier to fit Tarasenko in if you went with a stack there and some value options elsewhere.
Pittsburgh @ New York
These Game 4s are a bit tougher to parse. For one thing, we only have one game to look back at for matchup tendencies instead of two, and both of the home teams lost Game 3, so it’s possible they match up differently to try and procure a different result in Game 4.
The best possession players of Game 3 were Evgeni Malkin and Eric Fehr. That duo played together the whole game and they were joined by Conor Sheary to start the game. That trio primarily got matched up with New York depth lines, and they easily got the better of that matchup. But about halfway through the game, Sheary and Chris Kunitz switched spots with Kunitz moving from Crosby’s line to Malkin’s. From that point on, Malkin’s line saw a New York top six line on almost every shift. It will be interesting to see what lines Pittsburgh rushes tomorrow. I’ll prefer Malkin’s line either way, I’ll just like him better if he plays with Sheary again and is more likely to skate against depth lines. It looks like he'll be with Sheary and Bryan Rust instead of Fehr.
Malkin is priced better on DK, which is also where Kris Letang is priced very well. How much Letang will play with Malkin’s line at even strength is a bit up in the air, but they should be together some and will definitely be together on the top power play unit. Fehr is a nice salary relief option as long as he stays with Malkin, and both Sheary and Kunitz see PP2 work, so whoever ends up with Malkin is also an option.
For the Rangers, the top line of Chris Kreider, Derek Stepan and Mats Zuccarello is about the only option. They were decent possession-wise in Game 3, and they all skate on the top power play unit, so that’s your best bet. Zuccarello is the best value of the three, particularly on FD. Stepan is the most over-priced, and he’s about priced out of use on FD. Keith Yandle joins them on the power play but not as much at even strength. Yandle is most affordable on FD.
Anaheim @ Nashville
Again, who knows if Nashville will match lines up as they did in Game 3 after getting beat 3-0. And if Craig Smith is out tonight, that could add more uncertainty to the mix. What I do know is that I like whichever Anaheim line(s) match(es) up with the Weber/Josi pairing. They weren’t good possession-wise in the regular season, and they got drilled in that aspect of the game in Game 3. They saw a lot of the Getzlaf and Kesler lines while the Ellis/Ekholm pair saw the Rakell line. There’s the risk matchups change, but the safest bet is to target Getzlaf or Kesler’s line and hope they avoid Nashville’s real #1 D pair again.
Getzlaf is priced affordably enough on both sites and is actually a bit of a value on DK. He was with David Perron and Ryan Garbutt in Game 3, but Chris Stewart seems like he'll take Garbutt's spot tonight.. Perron joins Getzlaf on the power play, but he’s a bit over-priced on both sites.Sami Vatanen and Cam Fowler join Getzlaf and Perron on the top power play unit with Vatanen being the better value on DK and Fowler being the better value on FD.
Kesler is with Jakob Silfverberg and Andrew Cogliano as usual. All three of those guys are under-priced on DK and over-priced on FD, so use them accordingly. Kesler is the only one from that line who sees PP work as he skates on the second unit. Hampus Lindholm is the best defenseman to pair with that line as he skates with them some at even strength and joins Kesler on the second PP unit. He is also priced better on DK.
As for the Preds, Mike Fisher was their best possession player in Game 3. He’ll be joined by Viktor Arvidsson for sure, but the other member of that third line is TBD depending on Smith’s status. It’s normally Colin Wilson, but he could move up to the top line if Smith is out. The third line skates with the Ellis/Ekholm pairing at even strength. Fisher, Arvidsson and Ellis are all under-priced, with Arvidsson being the best value on both sites. Ellis’ value is about the same on both sites, and Fisher is a better value on FD.
