2018 FSTA Fantasy Baseball: The Draft That Wouldn't End

Well, it only took the better part of two months to complete, but the FSTA Fantasy Baseball Draft has finally come to an end. I don’t want to go on too much of a rant regarding how ridiculous the “slow draft” process is, but I will say this: Not only is it stupid, but you’re also taking away the level playing field everyone is on by having to draft right then and there with a 60 to 90-second clock. There are those who will take their fully-allotted time (six hours, eight hours, whatever), and scour the news and rumors for each and every pick. Not everyone has the time or ability to do that. Let the playing field be uneven based on who actually does the proper research for their draft, not based on who has more time to research during the day throughout an extended period of time.

Anyway, there’s no need to dwell on that. Let’s get to why you really clicked on this article. Let’s take a look at the completed FSTA draft and I will offer up my strategy, analysis on all my picks and share some general thoughts on some of the rest of the teams and their drafts.

League Specs

15-team, mixed league with standard 5x5 roto categories: BA, HR, RBI, R, SB, W, K, S, ERA, WHIP

Starting rosters will be: 2 C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 5 OF, 9 P. Teams will have a six-player bench.

Waiver Process: FAAB bidding with a $1,000 budget

Participants

Strategy

To win, duh. To build the best friggin’ team and smack these guys around. Oh ok. You mean like real strategy. Walking in, I wanted to focus on power, wait on pitching and steadily build up speed throughout. This whole notion of stolen bases being at a premium and needing a burner is vastly overrated. Is speed down since 2014 when it was sitting at a level reminiscent of the late-80s? Yes, but from 2015 through last season, a three-season span, there was a difference of 32 stolen bases from the lowest in 2015 to the highest in 2016. Last year say just 10 steals behind the previous season. So, speed isn’t declining. It did one year and has now plateaued. I didn’t overrate the burners last year and did just fine in the category.

Power is where it’s at. Sure, there are plenty of guys who hit 20 home runs, but the overall power numbers are increasing, so the guys who hit 30 and 40-plus are who you need. Grab those guys and separate yourself from the pack in home runs, RBI and yes, even runs scored. If your power-hitter can steal a few bags then you’ve got a nice bonus. So for me it’s power, then pitching, then speed. That was the order of importance for me. And just to break down the pitching a bit more, I am waiting on saves. No more investing heavily in a closer. The last two years of bullpen turnover speaks for itself.

One last thing, we use the Kentucky Derby Style for draft order where names are picked out of a hat and that’s the order in which people get to “choose” their draft position. I picked 10^th and opted for the 11^th pick as opposed to the seventh or eighth. If I’m not in the top half of the draft order, I prefer to be as close to the back as possible.

My Draft

Pick 1.11 – Carlos Correa, SS HOU

Is it possible to get sniped in the first round? Because I did. Everything I said just before about power? Well, I was planning on taking Giancarlo Stanton with my first pick so I could swing around and take Aaron Judge with my second. When Stanton got plucked the pick before me, I had to pivot and “settled” for Correa. Yeah, I know. We should all be forced to settle for the best-hitting shortstop in the league. I don’t subscribe to the position scarcity freak-out some do, but he does post numbers that are a cut-above the rest of the field and I do see the power on an upward trajectory for him.

Pick 2.18 – Freddie Freeman, 1B ATL

Now some might wonder, “if I was going to take Judge after Stanton, why pivot to Freddie?” Very simple. I was only doing it to be that Yankees fan who locked in the duo. To have one without the other didn’t interest me. I was the only one telling everyone to take Judge beyond the 20^th round last year, so I had my ride on that train. Time to move on and who better than Freeman? The guy had 28 home runs in just 117 games last season and will have no ill-effects from the fractured wrist. SunTrust Park plays EXTREMELY favorable for left-handed power hitters and Freeman even pointed that out last April before he started mashing like a beast. Oh yeah, and he also happens to have third base eligibility. Yum!

Pick 3.39 – Justin Upton, OF LAA

I’ve never wavered with my love for Uptin as a fantasy player and I wasn’t going to stop now. Been a big fan of his overall skull-set and withstood the ups and downs during the early part of his career. He finally got himself on-track, was able to stay healthy and the growth has been rewarding. Last year, when everyone was down on his slow start in 2016, I touted the resurgent second half as the real Upton and reaped the benefits throughout 2017. Now we get a full season hitting behind Trout? Yes, please! And while he’s not the speed threat he once was, he’s playing under Mike Scioscia, whose Angels led the league in stolen bases and steal attempts. His nine steals in the second half put a 20-steal season on my radar…to go with his 30-plus home runs.

Pick 4.46 – Jonathan Schoop, 2B BAL

I wanted to attack the outfield again here, but Andrew Benintendi and Christian Yelich went right before me in this round. The drop-off at the position seemed a little large for me, so since I was looking for power, I figured I’d keep stocking the infield and use the outfield for cheap speed guys later in the draft. After a 32-homer season, Schoop in the fourth didn’t seem like a stretch back in early December, but his current ADP sits about a round and a half lower right now. I’m a big believer in him and having his power in the middle infield is going to help me in every league I own him…which will be every league I play.

Pick 5.67 – Jose Quintana, SP CHC

Time to start looking for arms. I have always subscribed to the belief that you don’t need an ace to build a solid pitching staff. You don’t need to win every category – just stay competitive and try to hang in the top five of most categories. I’ve tried investing in aces before and it really hasn’t made that noticeable a difference. Where you do see the difference is if that ace gets hurt. The impact of losing a Clayton Kershaw or Corey Kluber does way more damage than losing a first or second-round hitter. And given the rash of pitching injuries to top-tier hurlers in recent seasons, I’d rather go with a stable guy who throws deep into games and has upside. That’s Quintana in what will be his first full season with the Cubs.

Pick 6.74 – Sonny Gray, SP NYY

Astounding how people keep knocking this guy. They look at his last two years and say he’s done. Um. How about the recovery from the lat injury? Gray showed marked improvement last year as he was getting back on-track and while it may have taken him longer than expected, he’s fully healed and ready to roll. That 50-plus percent ground ball rate will offset the hitter-friendly confines of Yankee Stadium and Gray’s control and command should help him miss plenty of bats.

Pick 7.95 – Lorenzo Cain, OF MIL

I actually took him before he signed with the Brewers and now that I’ve seen them add Yelich and make a concerted effort to make a run at a title this offseason, I couldn’t be happier about his landing spot. He’s got the ability to hit 15-20 homers while swiping 20-30 bases. I’ll happily take that. And if the friendly confines of Miller Park can help boost that power total, well I’m certainly not going to complain.

Pick 8.102 – Jake Lamb, 3B ARI

The past two seasons have given us plenty to love about the Diamondbacks third baseman. The 30-home run power is fantastic, he’s just entered his physical prime here at age-27 and we’ve seen steady improvement in both his walk and strikeout rates. The second-half fades offer slight concern, but not enough to ignore this immense power potential. There are going to be a lot of concerns with the recent announcement that they will be using a humidor at Chase Field now and while it is likely to have an impact on the number of homers hit, Lamb has enough strength to put the ball over the fence in even the largest of stadiums.

Pick 9.123 – Marcus Stroman, SP TOR

Another hurler with a strong ground ball rate and good strikeout potential. Stroman has now gone back-to-back 200-inning seasons and while the win total is never going to be all that tasty pitching in Toronto, the peripherals all look strong which will yield solid ratios. As a No. 3, I’m very happy here.

Pick 10.130 – Adam Eaton, OF WAS

The offseason chatter has Eaton working as the Nationals leadoff man and that should hopefully yield some strong stolen base numbers. I’ve got great power with some complementary speed, but need a leadoff man capable of crushing it in runs scored and steals. Eaton has always had the potential, but the injuries have hindered him throughout his abbreviated career. If he can stay healthy and make 500 at-bats, he could be the surprise burner everyone covets.

Pick 11.151 – Blake Treinen, RP OAK

I was surprised to see how many closers started coming off the board in the seventh and eighth rounds, but each time it got near me, I wasn’t too enamored with the ones left available. I’ve always been one to invest heavily in top-tier closers, but over these last two years, the turnover at the position has grown exponentially. I’m not going to chase saves on the waiver wire, but I’m also not going to pay a premium price. Treinen looked solid when he came over to the A’s last year and it looks like he’s going to lock down the job with very little competition in the bullpen.

Pick 12.158 – Bradley Zimmer, OF CLE

Eventually, this kid could be a perennial 20-30 guy if he stays on his current path of development. Just 25 years old, I think the power will yield just 15-20 homers this season, but he’s definitely capable of swiping 20-30 bags which is the primary reason I grabbed him here. I’m not too worried about the batting average, but even just a slight improvement on the plate discipline should produce something in the .250 range. I’ve got plenty of other batting average guys to help neutralize that.

Pick 13.179 – Charlie Morton, SP HOU

The veteran hurler reinvented himself with the development of his cutter and the uptick in velocity. He’s throwing with a lot more confidence and it is clearly showing. He’s capable of throwing 180-plus innings this year with solid strikeout totals and stable ratios. Remember, this is not the Charlie Morton of old. The past and the future are precisely divided, so before you take another step, give Morton a nice, long look.

Pick 14.186 – Evan Longoria, 3B SF

How about a semi-homer pick? I’ve always been a huge fan of Longoria and while I am very much aware of the decline with age, he’s now playing in my backyard here in the Bay Area and owning him gives me an excuse to head to ballpark and tolerate the nauseating Giants fans. If Longo can pop me 20 home runs and maintain an average above .270, then he’ll be a rock-solid corner infielder for me. I may even go buy a jersey.

Pick 15.207 – Randal Grichuk, OF TOR

Pass the Kool-Aid, please. I’m not done drinking. There are definite holes in the swing and he needs to cut down on the strikeouts, but the power is real and the move to the Rogers Center should certainly help support it.  

Pick 16.214 – Greg Holland, RP FA

I was much higher on this pick when the Cardinals were still in need of bullpen help, but their recent signing of Bud Norris gives me pause. They could still sign Holland and solidify the pen even better, but if they don’t, the number of competitive teams in search if a ninth-inning specialist is dwindling. Not going to say the pick was a mistake, given Holland’s talents, but we’ll see where he lands.

Pick 17.235 – Tyler Flowers, C ATL

The catcher pool was getting more and more shallow, so why not take a guy capable of plugging 15 home runs and won’t kill me in batting average?

Pick 18.242 – Zach Davies, SP MIL

I was eyeballing Patrick Corbin who went the pick right before mine, but am very happy with Davies who had been sitting in my queue as well. He’s a very underrated starter who posted a 2.87 ERA over 94 innings in the second half last season and now the Brewers have made serious improvements to get him and the rest of the rotation better run support.

Pick 19.263 – Zack Cozart, SS LAA

Filling out the rest of my roster, I needed someone in the middle infield slot. I was happy to wait here as Correa and Schoop make me feel extremely secure up the middle. Cozart has decent pop and while some may cite the Great American Smallpark factor, keep in mind that Cozart still hit half of his 24 home runs on the road last season.

Pick 20.270 – Tyler Chatwood, SP CHC

A simple look at Chatwood’s home/road splits will tell you why I’m bullish on his move to the Cubs. The park is better for him, the offensive support both at home and on the road will be better and Jim Hickey is one of the best pitching coaches in the game right now. I expect him to provide a fantastic return on his 20^th round draft position.

Pick 21.291 – Ryan McMahon, 1B COL

Last year around this point of the draft I grabbed Mark Reynolds who was slated to be the Rockies first baseman. Why wouldn’t I take a shot here on McMahon? If he sticks all spring and ends up playing first base for Colorado, this could be a huge steal.

Pick 22.298 – Josh Hader, RP MIL

How about an “oops pick” here? I had just moved Hader into my queue and was getting ready to take Jordan Montgomery. To be honest, I have no clue what happened, but I’m not that guy who asks to stop the draft in the 22^nd round and back out a pick. It’s gone on long enough. I don’t mind Hader, obviously, but not at this spot. At least a round or two later. He will help balance my ratios and augment my strikeouts, so it’s not a loss.

Pick 23.319 – Alex Avila, C ARI

OK, so one very minor advantage to a slow draft with a bunch of fools who take their full eight hours to make a pick can be found here. I was in need of a second catcher and lo and behold, Avila signs on with the Diamondbacks. Now, this, of course, happened before the announcement of the humidor being put into effect, so I’m not going gaga over the signing as much today as I did when I first made the pick, but, to grab a starting backstop this late in the game is still pretty nice.

Pick 24.326 – Mallex Smith, OF TB

My team could use some speed so the plan here is to grab the speedy Smith and hope he does well enough to push Denard Span out of the way and take over the job on his own.

Pick 25.347 – Denard Span, OF TB

Just in case Smith doesn’t push Span aside, Span will offer some cheapo speed here even in a platoon situation.

Pick 26.354 – Reynaldo Lopez, SP CHW

The White Sox rotation is going to be an interesting one to watch. Some like Lucas Giolito, some like Michael Kopech and some like Lopez. I’m not reliant on him here in the 26^th round and he’s an easy cut if he fails, but his stuff looked strong in the minors – decent K-rate, solid command and a tasty ground ball rate. We’ll see if it translates.

Pick 27.375 – Devon Travis, 2B TOR

So here’s where I went on tilt a little. I was looking for some middle relief arms with the potential for saves and had A.J. Minter and Drew Steckenrider lined up ready to go. Even if they didn’t end up with saves, both were expected to have strong ratios and strikeouts. But wouldn’t you know it…first Minter goes off the board and then BOOM! Steckenrider next. As if the length of the Draft That Would Never End wasn’t bad enough, here I am trying to wrap things up all easy peasy and my relievers get yanked. I was frustrated and just made a quick pick without really thinking. I should have grabbed Nick Senzel here who was also on my board, but hey, if Travis stays healthy then I got a nice middle infielder with some power. It’s a big if, though.

Pick 28.382 – Yoshihisa Hirano, RP ARI

I managed to compose myself before my next pick because, of course, I had three days to cool down here. Hirano is the guy I expect to be closing for the Diamondbacks this season. The team prefers Archie Bradley in that multi-inning middle relief role and Brad Boxberger never stays healthy. Hirano was lights-out back in Japan and the skills should translate here. It may take a little time for him to fully take over the gig, but it’s definitely going to be his for the taking.

Pick 29.403 – Keone Kela, RP TEX

Why not take a stab at another guy who could potentially close here in Kela. He says his shoulder feels great after stem-cell therapy and that Rangers bullpen seems like it could be up for grabs. Alex Claudio gets the first look, obviously, but I think this competition opens up more during the spring.

So there it is. Twenty-nine rounds in just under 70 days. Oh, the humanity!!! We’ll see how things turn out.