The UFC is down under this weekend for a rare stop in New Zealand. That means long flights and jet lag for many fighters. Be careful backing those traveling the furthest. It also means an early start time than usual by a little bit (4:00 PM ET) but no complaints here.
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD | ||
Main Event | Paul Felder vs Dan Hooker | 7500/8700 | - | Stackability: Safe | +135/ -145 | +330/+165 | This is a decent main event in that both guys are tough as nails and always come to fight. Felder plays the control game a little more and tends not to be in barnburners, but Hooker certainly does. It will be fun seeing who’s style wins out. I lean Hooker as the younger, more explosive fighter, but it’s lined fairly. A decent stack in cash as neither guy has gotten put away early in their career. |
Expensive | Xiaonan Yan | 9200 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | Safe | -255 | +490 | Yan is next in the line excellent female Chinese fighters. Her output is tremendous and she’s strong if you look to grapple with her. Those make her a decent bet. That her opponent is coming to the end of her UFC career only adds to it. KK is very hittable and the miles are showing. |
| Jake Matthews | 9100 | Emil Meek | Somewhat-Safe | -195 | +356 | Matthews is a grapple first grinder. Meek hasn’t defended in his UFC career to date. Seems like a good recipe for repeat takedowns and some grappling points. It’s a tough pill at the price but his ownership is probably low due to that. | |
| Kenan Song | 9000 | Callan Potter | Somewhat-Safe | -195 | +101 | Potter is only a regional-level talent. Song has the striking to end it ITD if he’s careful not to get stuck on his back. It’s tough to trust at the price given some of the inconsistency we’ve seen from him. He’s also going to be very popular, so it’s a chance to fade some ownership. | |
| Kai Kara-France | 9300 | Tyson Nam | Moderate | -250 | +255 | The UFC is trying to make KKF happen as best they can. He’s just not holding up his end. Nam is an ideal stylistic matchup *if* he never lands the big counter he’s always looking for. That adds a little risk and Kara-France has let us down before. Still, his output makes him one of the biggest potential scores on the night. | |
| Angela Hill | 8900 | Loma Lookboonmee | Moderate | -170 | +325 | Pump the brakes on Angie Hill. People are getting recency biased to death here. She had a nice win. She’s also dropped winnable fights and had some very modest DK scores in other wins. Loma will have takedown issues in the UFC with the size she gives away but it’s hard to count on a repeat of what Hill did last time out with the ground and pound sub. | |
Mid-Range | Jimmy Crute | 8000 | Michal Oleksiejczuk | Moderate | -200 | +155 | This fight is probably the lynchpin to your night. Crute is a very tough banger who has the submission game to keep his opponents honest. If he’s able to weather the first round flurry he could ground Oleksijczuk and sub him late. |
| Michal Oleksiejczuk | 8200 | Jimmy Crute | Moderate | -115 | +150 | That first round is where Lord Michal is so dangerous, though. He’s got plus power and works the body better than most. You can stand up to some hard overhands if you’re a tough dude. Liver shots leave you curled in a ball no matter how good your chin. His gas tank has been an issue previously, however. | |
| Kevin Aguilar | 8100 | Zubaira Tukhugov | Somewhat-Risky | -110 | +445 | I love Aguilar in this spot. He was riding a hot streak into his scrappy loss to Dan Ige. We’ve seen what Ige is made of. That loss is no knock. Tukhugov hasn’t shown the same toughness. I expect Aguilar to shut down the Russian’s wrestling and piece him up on the feet. The price tag makes him my most owned fighter. | |
| Takashi Sato | 8300 | Maki Pitolo | Somewhat-Risky | #N/A | #N/A | Sato probably needs the knockout in most of his UFC bouts at this point. His heavy right hand can get that done. Pitolo lost in ugly fashion to Callan Potter. The one that’s a regional gatekeeper. He probably gets his walking papers after another poor performance. | |
| Magomed Mustafaev | 8400 | Brad Riddell | Somewhat-Risky | -135 | +155 | If you trade with Mustafaev you tend to get slept. Riddell is a kickboxer, so he’s going to trade with him. He’s probably the best kickboxer Mustafaev has faced, though. Riddell has some issues in the grappling department so there’s always that angle to a win, as well. | |
| Jalin Turner | 8800 | Josh Culibao | Somewhat-Risky | -200 | -105 | Turner is physically gifted and huge for the weight. That didn’t help against Matt Frevola, though. We’ll probably be playing this guessing game his entire UFC career. Culibao is an unknown commodity so some Turner is required in your pool. He’ll be chalky, and paired with the uncertainty I’ll be light on him. | |
| Marcos Rogerio de Lima | 8500 | Ben Sosoli | Somewhat-Risky | -145 | +230 | I think this fight is lined right, so I’m confused with why people are so down on de Lima. Yes, he’s going to gas if the fight goes over 1.5 rounds. That doesn’t mean it will. A haymaker can connect and though Sosoli is tough he’s still human. I also like that de Lima has a chance at the sub given that Sosoli is exclusively a boxer. | |
| Zubaira Tukhugov | 8100 | Kevin Aguilar | Somewhat-Risky | +100 | +430 | There’s a chance Tukhugov has the level of wrestling that can give Aguilar trouble. It’s not a full fade for me despite how much I like Aguilar here. | |
| Shana Dobson | 8600 | Priscila Cachoeira | Somewhat-Risky | -200 | +141 | Unwarranted chalky is the easiest fade in the world. Still, Cachoeira is very bad and it’s a coinflip fight. | |
Pay-Downs | Brad Riddell | 7800 | Magomed Mustafaev | Moderate | +125 | +260 | If Riddell’s chin holds up he’s likely to outwork the Russian. He’s also a dangerous striker in his own right. I wouldn’t count grappling among his weapons but he was opportunistic with it against low-level Jamie Mularkey. |
| Priscila Cachoeira | 7600 | Shana Dobson | Moderate | +185 | +244 | The number of people talking themselves into Dobson is astounding. She’s a bad fighter who’s saving grace is her toughness. Sounds exactly like Cachoeira. So tell me why Dobson is -220? She can box? Really? Sabina Mazo isn’t a hard target but Dobson could barely catch her. Give me the woman who’s equally tough, equally powerful and possibly busier at +180/$7600. | |
| Callan Potter | 7200 | Kenan Song | Somewhat-Risky | +180 | +530 | I’ve mentioned Potter’s lack of talent twice already. He’s only going to fight when the UFC comes to the Pacific. That said, Song lost to Alex Morono and was taken down three times by Derrick Krantz. Potter is kind of an Australian Morono knock off with gritty grappling. It’s a big leverage spot, as well. | |
| Ben Sosoli | 7700 | Marcos Rogerio de Lima | Somewhat-Risky | +135 | +170 | The path for Sosoli is that de Lima gases in any fight he doesn’t finish early. Sosoli is durable and could outwork the bigger man in the second and third rounds. | |
| Loma Lookboonmee | 7300 | Angela Hill | Somewhat-Risky | +160 | +855 | We don’t know that much about where Loma is as a mixed martial artist. This is a huge test. She likely has the striking to win but the grappling will be her biggest issue. I’d like to say she’s going the distance but Hill showed her strength is a problem if she ends up on top of you. | |
| Tyson Nam | 6900 | Kai Kara-France | Risky | +230 | +600 | Nam is an interesting cash option if you don’t stack the main. He’s durable and KKF has some power but isn’t a risk taker. Nam also has the potential to KO anyone off a counter. | |
| Josh Culibao | 7400 | Jalin Turner | Risky | +185 | +400 | Culibao is the equivalent of going all-in blind. You don’t know what cards you’re holding. He’s an active striker and seems tough. He’s fighting up a weight against a fighter already large for the division. It’s probably too much to expect a victory but Turner is an enigma himself. | |
| Maki Pitolo | 7900 | Takashi Sato | Risky | #N/A | #N/A | You can land on Sato and Pitolo tends to be busy. When he’s not being put on his back, that is. If he shakes off that debut loss he’s not drawing dead. | |
| Emil Meek | 7100 | Jake Matthews | Risky | +180 | +380 | Meek is your random KO possibility play of the card. |
Cash Plays:
(Sample lineup)
GPP Plays:
(Sample lineup)
Vegas Plays:
Favorite Bets: Aguilar -115, Xiaonan -265, Cachoeira +180
Favorite Props: Crute ITD +240, Matthews via SUB +545
Longshot: Nam ITD +600
Live Dogs: Felder, Crute, Sosoli, Riddell, Potter, Nam, Cachoeira
Stats & Picks:
| Paul Felder | vs | Dan Hooker |
| $7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
| Record: 17-4-0 | Record | Record: 20-8-0 |
| 10 KO/TKO (59%) | Knockouts | 10 KO/TKO (53%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (6%) | Subs | 7 SUBMISSIONS (37%) |
| +135 | Vegas Odds | -145 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Jimmy Crute | vs | Michal Oleksiejczuk |
| $8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 10-1-0 | Record | Record: 14-3-0 (1 NC) |
| 10 KO/TKO (53%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (40%) |
| 7 SUBMISSIONS (37%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (30%) |
| +105 | Vegas Odds | -115 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | vs | Xiaonan Yan |
| $7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
| Record: 12-5-0 | Record | Record: 11-1-0 (1 NC) |
| 10 KO/TKO (71%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (8%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (7%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (17%) |
| +235 | Vegas Odds | -255 |
| 2/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Ben Sosoli | vs | Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
| $7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
| Record: 7-2-0 (2 NC) | Record | Record: 16-7-1 |
| 5 KO/TKO (45%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (86%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| +135 | Vegas Odds | -145 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Brad Riddell | vs | Magomed Mustafaev |
| $7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
| Record: 7-1-0 | Record | Record: 14-2-0 |
| 11 KO/TKO (69%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (71%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (19%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| +125 | Vegas Odds | -135 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Kevin Aguilar | vs | Zubaira Tukhugov |
| $8,100 | DFS Salary | $8,100 |
| Record: 17-2-0 | Record | Record: 18-4-1 |
| 10 KO/TKO (71%) | Knockouts | 10 KO/TKO (59%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (29%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (6%) |
| -110 | Vegas Odds | +100 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Jalin Turner | vs | Josh Culibao |
| $8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 8-5-0 | Record | Record: 8-0-0 |
| 6 KO/TKO (33%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (88%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (6%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (13%) |
| -200 | Vegas Odds | +185 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Jake Matthews | vs | Emil Meek |
| $9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 15-4-0 | Record | Record: 9-4-1 (1 NC) |
| 5 KO/TKO (63%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (27%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 7 SUBMISSIONS (47%) |
| -195 | Vegas Odds | +180 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Callan Potter | vs | Kenan Song |
| $7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
| Record: 18-8-0 | Record | Record: 15-5-0 |
| 7 KO/TKO (78%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (33%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (11%) | Subs | 10 SUBMISSIONS (56%) |
| +180 | Vegas Odds | -195 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Kai Kara-France | vs | Tyson Nam |
| $9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 20-8-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 18-10-1 |
| 7 KO/TKO (47%) | Knockouts | 9 KO/TKO (45%) |
| 6 SUBMISSIONS (40%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (15%) |
| -250 | Vegas Odds | +230 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Loma Lookboonmee | vs | Angela Hill |
| $7,300 | DFS Salary | $8,900 |
| Record: 4-1-0 | Record | Record: 11-7-0 |
| 10 KO/TKO (56%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (25%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (6%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| +160 | Vegas Odds | -170 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Priscila Cachoeira | vs | Shana Dobson |
| $7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 8-3-0 | Record | Record: 3-3-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (45%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (50%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (25%) |
| +185 | Vegas Odds | -200 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |