The UFC is heading to MMA hot spot New Mexico this weekend. It’s a fun card and it should be a good crowd. Let’s hope for some exciting New Mexico craziness. As with most Fight Night cards we get higher variance fight to fight. Don’t be afraid to play some dogs and leave salary on the table.
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD | ||
Main Event | Corey Anderson vs Jan Blachowicz | 8900/7300 | - | Stackability: Safe | -210/ +175 | +185/+260 | In a rematch of two men who have both grown as fighters, it would be shortsighted to assume it goes the same way. Anderson is on a roll but it’s come against less stiff competition. Jan has perfected his point fighting style. This all comes down to whether Anderson’s wrestling is as effective this time around. I’m not sure it will be. Give me Blachowicz at the deeper discount. |
Expensive | Macy Chiasson | 9400 | Shanna Young | Safe | -800 | -255 | We might have gotten a decent price on Chiasson after she pulled a stunt in Sweden. It’s forgivable given her modest fight total and travel considerations. She should be back to her DK point piling ways here. |
| Tim Means | 9100 | Daniel Rodriguez | Somewhat-Safe | -290 | -112 | Means has some risk as an expensive fighter. His high output makes him an essential part of your fighter pool, though. He’s a monster at the weight and can finish fights standing or via submission. | |
| Devin Clark | 9300 | Dequan Townsend | Somewhat-Safe | -390 | +237 | Clark is a less than appealing DK play. He’s likely to press his opponent against the cage for much of the fight or take him down and hold him there. He’s also a knockout risk with some serious concussion issues from prior fights. | |
| Raulian Paiva | 8800 | Mark De La Rosa | Somewhat-Safe | -235 | +423 | Paiva is a good bet but maybe not as good of a DK option. De La Rosa is a tough fighter to attack given his strong BJJ. Paiva will likely take home a decision without all that much action. | |
| Brok Weaver | 9200 | Kazula Vargas | Moderate | -265 | +308 | I’m not sure how Weaver is the third most expensive fighter. He’s tough as nails and will work for everything he can but I don’t see an immense talent. Vargas is a can but one that has a haymaker. Still, Weaver likely brings enough grappling to have some appeal. | |
Mid-Range | Michel Pereira | 8500 | Diego Sanchez | Somewhat-Safe | -200 | +155 | We’ll have a better feeling for where Pereira is after weigh-ins but he seems to be more focussed after missing weight and gassing in his last fight. His style will always be an endurance liability but I don’t Sanchez has enough left to do what Connely did. Diego uses his formerly tough chin as a striking defense. That chin has cracked and will be cracking further here. |
| Merab Dvalishvili | 8400 | Casey Kenney | Moderate | -160 | +468 | Merab is a persistent grappler and that should be trouble for Kenney. There should be plenty of scrambles as well, leading to repeat takedowns and advances for DK points. It’s a nice price for that potential. | |
| Nathaniel Wood | 8600 | John Dodson | Somewhat-Risky | -145 | +467 | Wood’s hype train has possibly passed by his abilities at the moment. Dodson is a very stiff test and hard to score points against. I’m fading Wood entirely. | |
| Ray Borg | 8300 | Rogerio Bontorin | Somewhat-Risky | -150 | +500 | Borg stays after it with his wrestling if nothing else. Bontorin will not be held down and is always moving. If Borg manages to pull out a win it will be behind a multitude of grappling points. | |
| Montana De La Rosa | 8700 | Mara Romero Borella | Somewhat-Risky | -165 | +265 | It’s sub or bust for De La Rosa. She has the BJJ chops to get it done and Borella isn’t the best decision-maker in the cage. This is a pure GPP play at the price, however. | |
| Jim Miller | 8000 | Scott Holtzman | Somewhat-Risky | +115 | +291 | Another sub or bust play. Miller has the skills to get it done early. Holtzman isn’t a strong defense wrestler, either. If he can’t find the early sub, Miller is on for a long fight, though. | |
| Scott Holtzman | 8200 | Jim Miller | Somewhat-Risky | -135 | +178 | Holtzman shines when he gets to outwork an opponent and put his physical tools on display. Miller probably doesn’t have much more than a quality round and a half in the tank. | |
| Lando Vannata | 8100 | Lando Vannata | Somewhat-Risky | -120 | +246 | Vannata would be a more confident pick for me if I knew he would focus on his grappling. He should find opportunities there either way. His striking also has KO potential against the easy to hit Medeiros. | |
| Yancy Medeiros | 8100 | Lando Vannata | Somewhat-Risky | +100 | +300 | Like most Hawaiians, Medeiros is tough as hell, however. He’ll fight as long as he’s conscious. You need a mercy stoppage or a sub to end his night. And if you don’t he’s coming for you with a fury. | |
Pay-Downs | John Dodson | 7600 | Nathaniel Wood | Moderate | +125 | +540 | Dodson’s in and out, hard to hit style, is probably enough to win this one. Wood has relied on grappling to save the day in his UFC run. That’s a very hard thing to manage against the hyper-quick Dodson. |
| Rogerio Bontorin | 7900 | Ray Borg | Moderate | +130 | +475 | Bontorin is like a cornered wolverine in the cage. He’s always attacking with a buzzsaw style and strong as an ox for his size. That’s a problem for Borg, who relies on controlling opponents. A big win for Bontorin could be a slate breaker. | |
| Casey Kenney | 7800 | Merab Dvalishvili | Somewhat-Risky | +140 | +725 | Kenney is gritty and will keep himself in fights. There’s likely too large of a skill discrepancy between his grappling and Dvalishvili’s. He will stay busy and can win a decision with the right gameplan, though. | |
| Mara Romero Borella | 7500 | Montana De La Rosa | Somewhat-Risky | +145 | +875 | The Italian likes to strike even though her judo is great. That’s actually a plus here. She needs to avoid getting tied up by one of the division’s best sub artists. Her striking could be enough to outwork De La Rosa at dog money. | |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 7100 | Tim Means | Risky | +245 | +425 | Rodriguez is a live dog as a fighter capable of finding a finish. Means aggressive style leaves him open to being finished, as well. It’s a tall task in a home game for Means but we’ve seen plenty of local favorites disappointed lately. | |
| Kazula Vargas | 7000 | Brok Weaver | Risky | +225 | +405 | Vargas only has a punchers chance but hits hard enough to give him a look. | |
| Diego Sanchez | 7700 | Michel Pereira | Risky | +135 | +500 | The path to victory for Diego is through his grappling. That’s the one skill he maybe still has. Pereira’s physique and weight cut leave him prone to gassing. It’s hard to get up off the mat when you’re exhausted and a bleeding madman is holding you down. | |
| Dequan Townsend | 6900 | Devin Clark | Risky | +320 | +410 | Townsend will throw heavy punches if he finds space. Should one land behind Clark’s ear he’ll crumple. It’s long odds with the lack of a skill set Townsend brings, though. | |
| Mark De La Rosa | 7400 | Raulian Paiva | Risky | +195 | 750. | The bumblebee needs to get you to the mat and isn’t strong enough to do that against most UFC opponents. Paiva has been one of the unluckiest fighters around and that could somehow continue. De La Rosa will be one of the lowest owned fighters. |
Cash Plays:
(Sample lineup)
GPP Plays:
(Sample lineup)
Vegas Plays:
Favorite Bets: Bontrin +130, Blachowicz +175, Pereira -155
Favorite Props: Miller via SUB +370, Montana De La Rosa via SUB +410, Dodson via DEC +195
Live Dogs: Blachowicz, Bontorin, Dodson, Miller, Medeiros, Kenney
Stats & Picks:
| Corey Anderson | vs | Jan Blachowicz |
| $8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 14-4-0 | Record | Record: 25-8-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (38%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (24%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 9 SUBMISSIONS (36%) |
| -210 | Vegas Odds | +175 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Diego Sanchez | vs | Michel Pereira |
| $7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
| Record: 30-12-0 | Record | Record: 23-10-0 (2 NC) |
| 6 KO/TKO (24%) | Knockouts | 10 KO/TKO (34%) |
| 9 SUBMISSIONS (36%) | Subs | 6 SUBMISSIONS (21%) |
| +135 | Vegas Odds | -155 |
| 2/10 | Lineup Pool | 7/10 |
| Montana De La Rosa | vs | Mara Romero Borella |
| $8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 10-5-0 | Record | Record: 12-6-0 (2 NC) |
| 10 KO/TKO (43%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (30%) |
| 6 SUBMISSIONS (26%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (10%) |
| -165 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Brok Weaver | vs | Kazula Vargas |
| $9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 14-4-0 | Record | Record: 10-3-0 |
| 12 KO/TKO (57%) | Knockouts | 0 KO/TKO (0%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (24%) | Subs | 8 SUBMISSIONS (80%) |
| -265 | Vegas Odds | +225 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Rogerio Bontorin | vs | Ray Borg |
| $7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 16-1-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 12-4-0 |
| 3 KO/TKO (25%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (14%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (33%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (21%) |
| +130 | Vegas Odds | -150 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Lando Vannata | vs | Yancy Medeiros |
| $8,100 | DFS Salary | $8,100 |
| Record: 10-4-2 | Record | Record: 15-6-0 (1 NC) |
| 6 KO/TKO (60%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (53%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (30%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (27%) |
| -120 | Vegas Odds | +100 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Tim Means | vs | Daniel Rodriguez |
| $9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 29-11-1 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 10-1-0 |
| 4 KO/TKO (40%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (60%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (50%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (30%) |
| -290 | Vegas Odds | +245 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| John Dodson | vs | Nathaniel Wood |
| $7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 21-11-0 | Record | Record: 16-3-0 |
| 19 KO/TKO (66%) | Knockouts | 9 KO/TKO (45%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (17%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (10%) |
| +125 | Vegas Odds | -145 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Jim Miller | vs | Scott Holtzman |
| $8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 31-13-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 13-3-0 |
| 9 KO/TKO (56%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (13%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (31%) | Subs | 17 SUBMISSIONS (55%) |
| +115 | Vegas Odds | -135 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Devin Clark | vs | Dequan Townsend |
| $9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 10-4-0 | Record | Record: 21-10-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (38%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (8%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (15%) | Subs | 6 SUBMISSIONS (50%) |
| -390 | Vegas Odds | +320 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Casey Kenney | vs | Merab Dvalishvili |
| $7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
| Record: 13-1-1 | Record | Record: 9-4-0 |
| 3 KO/TKO (19%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (15%) |
| 11 SUBMISSIONS (69%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (31%) |
| +140 | Vegas Odds | -160 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Macy Chiasson | vs | Shanna Young |
| $9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 6-1-0 | Record | Record: 7-2-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (22%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (14%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (11%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (43%) |
| -800 | Vegas Odds | +550 |
| 8/10 | Lineup Pool | 1/10 |
| Mark De La Rosa | vs | Raulian Paiva |
| $7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
| Record: 11-3-0 | Record | Record: 18-3-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (40%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (40%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (40%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (40%) |
| +195 | Vegas Odds | -235 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |