We’re back to the Fight Night card level of quality. That means less buzzy fights but this card offers some opportunities all the same. We don’t know too much about the North Carolina fight commission so be wary of fighters in close decisions. All fighters have made weight.

 Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITDBreakDown
Main Event
Curtis Blaydes vs Junior Dos Santos
9000/7200
-
Stackability: Safe
-245/ +225
-125/+270
The only man that’s been immune to Blaydes smothering wrestling has been Francis Ngannou, and it’s debatable that’s Ngannou is superhuman. JDS will test his boxing for sure. Blaydes is careful in the ring and tends not to take undue risks. He’s likely to tire Junior and take over at some point.
        
Expensive
Montel Jackson9400Felipe ColaresSafe-630-115Jackson is huge for the weight and boasts height and reach advantages to accompany a likely strength advantage. He’s super hard to control with grappling and his striking is a problem for most. He’s likely to win ITD with a nice score.
Alex Perez9100Jordan EspinosaSomewhat-Safe-250+230Outside of no-showing his matchup with Joe Benavidez, Perez has been a force in the octagon. He’s a capable finisher and well-rounded. Espinosa’s athleticism could give him trouble at points but he’s a safe bet to figure the greener fighter out.
Rafael Dos Anjos8900Michael ChiesaSomewhat-Safe-245+175On paper, this feels like an easy win for RDA. He’s the much more polished striker and a more physical fighter by a wide margin. His wrestling is always improving and he’s got BJJ chops. Chiesa is dangerous on the mat so look for RDA to avoid grappling and pepper the taller man.
Arnold Allen9200Nik LentzSomewhat-Safe-250+300Allen was going to have a true test against Josh Emmett. Lentz is still a test but an easier pass. If Allen can avoid getting caught in a sub he’s probably better everywhere. He tends not to score big on DK and that trend is likely to continue.
Bevon Lewis9300Dequan TownsendModerate-420+115Through two UFC fights Lewis has failed to live up to his hype. The promotion has lowered the bar considerably for him here. Still, Townsend is durable and doesn’t go away after a couple of punches. That became an issue in both of his prior losses. He should win but it’s a risky play.
        
Mid-Range
Jamahal Hill8500Darko StosicSomewhat-Safe-200+155Hill is becoming a headache for matchmakers. No one wanted his smoke on the regional scene and after a vicious DWCS knockout, there aren’t many UFC guys looking to sign a fight with him either. Stosic is a big step up and a tough nut to crack. Hill has the striking to do it if he can keep to burly Serb from tieing him up.
Nate Landwehr8300Herbert BurnsModerate-120+258Landwehr auditioned to be an extra in the original point break and has stayed in character ever since. He’s intense and fights with uber aggression. He has holes in the grappling department and that’s where Burns attacks. One of these fighters is going to enforce their will.
Sara McMann8400Lina LansbergModerate-150+255This should be a spot for McMann to win. We don’t know if she’ll quit in the ring yet again, however. Lansberg is tough as hell. She’s nasty in close with elbows, too. If McMann can lay on her for three rounds she wins.
Lucie Pudilova8700Justine KishSomewhat-Risky-160+449Pudilova hasn’t been very good in the UFC lately. She does come to fight, though. Her aggression may be enough to carry a decision win.
Angela Hill8600Hannah CifersSomewhat-Risky-170+520Hill will be the bigger and busier fighter in another likely decision. That’s not going to pay the bills at 8600, though.
Tony Gravely8200Brett JohnsSomewhat-Risky-105+435The young man certainly stays busy with 24 fights since 2015. Gravely is raw but always getting better. If he stays on the front foot he should find plenty of openings against the tough but flawed Welshman.
Brett Johns8000Tony GravelySomewhat-Risky-105+310Johns is a veteran and has a bag full of tricks, though. He can trade with the best and eat power shots, or wrestle when it’s called for. Either way, you’ll need the winner in GPPs here.
        
Pay-Downs
Michael Chiesa7300Rafael Dos AnjosModerate+225+515RDA is a pretty big change of opponent for what Chiesa usually faces. We saw an improved version of Chiesa last time out. He also looks like a different man up a weight at 170. His BJJ is lethal and makes him a live dog despite big disadvantages in the striking and tenacity departments.
Darko Stosic7700Jamahal HillModerate+105+215I’m curious to see what improvements Stosic has made since moving to train with Elevation Fight Team. They know how to implement a gameplan based on strength. He’s an odd dog given his experience in the ring. This is closer to a pick em for me.
Justine Kish7500Lucie PudilovaModerate+150+512Kish should be the stronger woman in the ring and is happy to oblige a striking exchange. This could be a fun fight with plenty of back and forth. I prefer Kish at dog money.
Lina Lansberg7800Sara McMannModerate+140+380Lansberg showed you can’t just bully her in her upset of Macy Chiasson. Takedowns will always be an issue but she’s closing that hole in her game. She’s nasty in the clinch as a Muay Thai champ. Can she reward bettors in back to back upsets?
Nik Lentz7000Arnold AllenSomewhat-Risky+230+840Lentz can out grit a good amount of opponents. Allen is extremely focussed on rising up the ranks and isn’t that likely to overlook the Carny. It’s possible, though.
Herbert Burns7900Nate LandwehrSomewhat-Risky+100+155“Never fight a land war in Asia and never fight a Landwehr in a standup battle.” ~Vizzini, The Princess Bride. It’s a good thing Burns will be looking to grapple and submit him.
Hannah Cifers7600Angela HillSomewhat-Risky+160+102Cifers could steal a decision in her backyard. It’s a tough task to keep up with Angie Hill. She’d have to do it via damage.
Dequan Townsend6900Bevon LewisRisky+375+510Townsend will hang around and if Lewis gets jittery it could be the opening Townsend needs. We had two sub $7K dogs win last card. Maybe there’s something in the air.

Cash Plays: 

(Sample lineup)

GPP Plays: 

(Sample lineup)

Vegas Plays:

Favorite Bets: Blaydes -245, Kish +150, J. Hill -115

Favorite Props: Chiesa via SUB +870, A. Hill via DEC -130, Burns ITD +155

Live Dogs: JDS, Chiesa, Stosic, Lentz, Kish, Lansberg, Burns

Stats & Picks:

Curtis BlaydesvsJunior Dos Santos
$9,000DFS Salary$7,200
Record: 12-2-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 21-6-0
9 KO/TKO (75%)Knockouts15 KO/TKO (71%)
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)Subs1 SUBMISSIONS (5%)
-245Vegas Odds+225
7/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Rafael Dos AnjosvsMichael Chiesa
$8,900DFS Salary$7,300
Record: 29-12-0RecordRecord: 16-4-0
15 KO/TKO (71%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (17%)
1 SUBMISSIONS (5%)Subs10 SUBMISSIONS (33%)
-245Vegas Odds+225
5/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Jordan EspinosavsAlex Perez
$7,100DFS Salary$9,100
Record: 14-6-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 22-5-0
0 KO/TKO (0%)Knockouts2 KO/TKO (14%)
11 SUBMISSIONS (69%)Subs7 SUBMISSIONS (50%)
+230Vegas Odds-250
2/10Lineup Pool7/10
   
Hannah CifersvsAngela Hill
$7,600DFS Salary$8,600
Record: 10-3-0RecordRecord: 10-7-0
4 KO/TKO (18%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (50%)
6 SUBMISSIONS (27%)Subs0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)
+160Vegas Odds-170
3/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Jamahal HillvsDarko Stosic
$8,500DFS Salary$7,700
Record: 6-0-0RecordRecord: 13-3-0
4 KO/TKO (40%)Knockouts3 KO/TKO (50%)
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)Subs0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)
-115Vegas Odds+105
6/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Bevon LewisvsDequan Townsend
$9,300DFS Salary$6,900
Record: 6-2-0RecordRecord: 21-9-0
8 KO/TKO (62%)Knockouts3 KO/TKO (50%)
1 SUBMISSIONS (8%)Subs0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)
-420Vegas Odds+375
6/10Lineup Pool2/10
   
Arnold AllenvsNik Lentz
$9,200DFS Salary$7,000
Record: 15-1-0RecordRecord: 30-10-2 (1 NC)
12 KO/TKO (57%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (33%)
5 SUBMISSIONS (24%)Subs4 SUBMISSIONS (27%)
-250Vegas Odds+230
5/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Justine KishvsLucie Pudilova
$7,500DFS Salary$8,700
Record: 6-2-0RecordRecord: 8-5-0
11 KO/TKO (37%)Knockouts0 KO/TKO (0%)
8 SUBMISSIONS (27%)Subs2 SUBMISSIONS (33%)
+150Vegas Odds-160
5/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Montel JacksonvsFelipe Colares
$9,400DFS Salary$6,800
Record: 8-1-0RecordRecord: 9-1-0
2 KO/TKO (25%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (63%)
2 SUBMISSIONS (25%)Subs1 SUBMISSIONS (13%)
-630Vegas Odds+520
8/10Lineup Pool1/10
   
Sara McMannvsLina Lansberg
$8,400DFS Salary$7,800
Record: 11-5-0RecordRecord: 10-4-0
2 KO/TKO (22%)Knockouts1 KO/TKO (9%)
5 SUBMISSIONS (56%)Subs5 SUBMISSIONS (45%)
-150Vegas Odds+140
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Brett JohnsvsTony Gravely
$8,000DFS Salary$8,200
Record: 15-2-0RecordRecord: 19-5-0
4 KO/TKO (40%)Knockouts2 KO/TKO (13%)
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)Subs5 SUBMISSIONS (33%)
-105Vegas Odds-105
4/10Lineup Pool6/10
   
Herbert BurnsvsNate Landwehr
$7,900DFS Salary$8,300
Record: 9-2-0RecordRecord: 13-2-0
8 KO/TKO (42%)Knockouts0 KO/TKO (0%)
3 SUBMISSIONS (16%)Subs7 SUBMISSIONS (78%)
+100Vegas Odds-120
6/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
#N/Avs#N/A
#N/ADFS Salary#N/A
 Record 
8 KO/TKO (62%)Knockouts0 KO/TKO (0%)
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)Subs1 SUBMISSIONS (100%)
#N/AVegas Odds#N/A
3/10Lineup Pool5/10