We’re back to the Fight Night card level of quality. That means less buzzy fights but this card offers some opportunities all the same. We don’t know too much about the North Carolina fight commission so be wary of fighters in close decisions. All fighters have made weight.
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD | BreakDown | |
Main Event | Curtis Blaydes vs Junior Dos Santos | 9000/7200 | - | Stackability: Safe | -245/ +225 | -125/+270 | The only man that’s been immune to Blaydes smothering wrestling has been Francis Ngannou, and it’s debatable that’s Ngannou is superhuman. JDS will test his boxing for sure. Blaydes is careful in the ring and tends not to take undue risks. He’s likely to tire Junior and take over at some point. |
Expensive | Montel Jackson | 9400 | Felipe Colares | Safe | -630 | -115 | Jackson is huge for the weight and boasts height and reach advantages to accompany a likely strength advantage. He’s super hard to control with grappling and his striking is a problem for most. He’s likely to win ITD with a nice score. |
Alex Perez | 9100 | Jordan Espinosa | Somewhat-Safe | -250 | +230 | Outside of no-showing his matchup with Joe Benavidez, Perez has been a force in the octagon. He’s a capable finisher and well-rounded. Espinosa’s athleticism could give him trouble at points but he’s a safe bet to figure the greener fighter out. | |
Rafael Dos Anjos | 8900 | Michael Chiesa | Somewhat-Safe | -245 | +175 | On paper, this feels like an easy win for RDA. He’s the much more polished striker and a more physical fighter by a wide margin. His wrestling is always improving and he’s got BJJ chops. Chiesa is dangerous on the mat so look for RDA to avoid grappling and pepper the taller man. | |
Arnold Allen | 9200 | Nik Lentz | Somewhat-Safe | -250 | +300 | Allen was going to have a true test against Josh Emmett. Lentz is still a test but an easier pass. If Allen can avoid getting caught in a sub he’s probably better everywhere. He tends not to score big on DK and that trend is likely to continue. | |
Bevon Lewis | 9300 | Dequan Townsend | Moderate | -420 | +115 | Through two UFC fights Lewis has failed to live up to his hype. The promotion has lowered the bar considerably for him here. Still, Townsend is durable and doesn’t go away after a couple of punches. That became an issue in both of his prior losses. He should win but it’s a risky play. | |
Mid-Range | Jamahal Hill | 8500 | Darko Stosic | Somewhat-Safe | -200 | +155 | Hill is becoming a headache for matchmakers. No one wanted his smoke on the regional scene and after a vicious DWCS knockout, there aren’t many UFC guys looking to sign a fight with him either. Stosic is a big step up and a tough nut to crack. Hill has the striking to do it if he can keep to burly Serb from tieing him up. |
Nate Landwehr | 8300 | Herbert Burns | Moderate | -120 | +258 | Landwehr auditioned to be an extra in the original point break and has stayed in character ever since. He’s intense and fights with uber aggression. He has holes in the grappling department and that’s where Burns attacks. One of these fighters is going to enforce their will. | |
Sara McMann | 8400 | Lina Lansberg | Moderate | -150 | +255 | This should be a spot for McMann to win. We don’t know if she’ll quit in the ring yet again, however. Lansberg is tough as hell. She’s nasty in close with elbows, too. If McMann can lay on her for three rounds she wins. | |
Lucie Pudilova | 8700 | Justine Kish | Somewhat-Risky | -160 | +449 | Pudilova hasn’t been very good in the UFC lately. She does come to fight, though. Her aggression may be enough to carry a decision win. | |
Angela Hill | 8600 | Hannah Cifers | Somewhat-Risky | -170 | +520 | Hill will be the bigger and busier fighter in another likely decision. That’s not going to pay the bills at 8600, though. | |
Tony Gravely | 8200 | Brett Johns | Somewhat-Risky | -105 | +435 | The young man certainly stays busy with 24 fights since 2015. Gravely is raw but always getting better. If he stays on the front foot he should find plenty of openings against the tough but flawed Welshman. | |
Brett Johns | 8000 | Tony Gravely | Somewhat-Risky | -105 | +310 | Johns is a veteran and has a bag full of tricks, though. He can trade with the best and eat power shots, or wrestle when it’s called for. Either way, you’ll need the winner in GPPs here. | |
Pay-Downs | Michael Chiesa | 7300 | Rafael Dos Anjos | Moderate | +225 | +515 | RDA is a pretty big change of opponent for what Chiesa usually faces. We saw an improved version of Chiesa last time out. He also looks like a different man up a weight at 170. His BJJ is lethal and makes him a live dog despite big disadvantages in the striking and tenacity departments. |
Darko Stosic | 7700 | Jamahal Hill | Moderate | +105 | +215 | I’m curious to see what improvements Stosic has made since moving to train with Elevation Fight Team. They know how to implement a gameplan based on strength. He’s an odd dog given his experience in the ring. This is closer to a pick em for me. | |
Justine Kish | 7500 | Lucie Pudilova | Moderate | +150 | +512 | Kish should be the stronger woman in the ring and is happy to oblige a striking exchange. This could be a fun fight with plenty of back and forth. I prefer Kish at dog money. | |
Lina Lansberg | 7800 | Sara McMann | Moderate | +140 | +380 | Lansberg showed you can’t just bully her in her upset of Macy Chiasson. Takedowns will always be an issue but she’s closing that hole in her game. She’s nasty in the clinch as a Muay Thai champ. Can she reward bettors in back to back upsets? | |
Nik Lentz | 7000 | Arnold Allen | Somewhat-Risky | +230 | +840 | Lentz can out grit a good amount of opponents. Allen is extremely focussed on rising up the ranks and isn’t that likely to overlook the Carny. It’s possible, though. | |
Herbert Burns | 7900 | Nate Landwehr | Somewhat-Risky | +100 | +155 | “Never fight a land war in Asia and never fight a Landwehr in a standup battle.” ~Vizzini, The Princess Bride. It’s a good thing Burns will be looking to grapple and submit him. | |
Hannah Cifers | 7600 | Angela Hill | Somewhat-Risky | +160 | +102 | Cifers could steal a decision in her backyard. It’s a tough task to keep up with Angie Hill. She’d have to do it via damage. | |
Dequan Townsend | 6900 | Bevon Lewis | Risky | +375 | +510 | Townsend will hang around and if Lewis gets jittery it could be the opening Townsend needs. We had two sub $7K dogs win last card. Maybe there’s something in the air. |
Cash Plays:
(Sample lineup)
GPP Plays:
(Sample lineup)
Vegas Plays:
Favorite Bets: Blaydes -245, Kish +150, J. Hill -115
Favorite Props: Chiesa via SUB +870, A. Hill via DEC -130, Burns ITD +155
Live Dogs: JDS, Chiesa, Stosic, Lentz, Kish, Lansberg, Burns
Stats & Picks:
Curtis Blaydes | vs | Junior Dos Santos |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
Record: 12-2-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 21-6-0 |
9 KO/TKO (75%) | Knockouts | 15 KO/TKO (71%) |
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (5%) |
-245 | Vegas Odds | +225 |
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Rafael Dos Anjos | vs | Michael Chiesa |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
Record: 29-12-0 | Record | Record: 16-4-0 |
15 KO/TKO (71%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (17%) |
1 SUBMISSIONS (5%) | Subs | 10 SUBMISSIONS (33%) |
-245 | Vegas Odds | +225 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Jordan Espinosa | vs | Alex Perez |
$7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
Record: 14-6-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 22-5-0 |
0 KO/TKO (0%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (14%) |
11 SUBMISSIONS (69%) | Subs | 7 SUBMISSIONS (50%) |
+230 | Vegas Odds | -250 |
2/10 | Lineup Pool | 7/10 |
Hannah Cifers | vs | Angela Hill |
$7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
Record: 10-3-0 | Record | Record: 10-7-0 |
4 KO/TKO (18%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (50%) |
6 SUBMISSIONS (27%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
+160 | Vegas Odds | -170 |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Jamahal Hill | vs | Darko Stosic |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
Record: 6-0-0 | Record | Record: 13-3-0 |
4 KO/TKO (40%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (50%) |
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
-115 | Vegas Odds | +105 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Bevon Lewis | vs | Dequan Townsend |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
Record: 6-2-0 | Record | Record: 21-9-0 |
8 KO/TKO (62%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (50%) |
1 SUBMISSIONS (8%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
-420 | Vegas Odds | +375 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Arnold Allen | vs | Nik Lentz |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
Record: 15-1-0 | Record | Record: 30-10-2 (1 NC) |
12 KO/TKO (57%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (33%) |
5 SUBMISSIONS (24%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (27%) |
-250 | Vegas Odds | +230 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Justine Kish | vs | Lucie Pudilova |
$7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
Record: 6-2-0 | Record | Record: 8-5-0 |
11 KO/TKO (37%) | Knockouts | 0 KO/TKO (0%) |
8 SUBMISSIONS (27%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (33%) |
+150 | Vegas Odds | -160 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Montel Jackson | vs | Felipe Colares |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
Record: 8-1-0 | Record | Record: 9-1-0 |
2 KO/TKO (25%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (63%) |
2 SUBMISSIONS (25%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (13%) |
-630 | Vegas Odds | +520 |
8/10 | Lineup Pool | 1/10 |
Sara McMann | vs | Lina Lansberg |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
Record: 11-5-0 | Record | Record: 10-4-0 |
2 KO/TKO (22%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (9%) |
5 SUBMISSIONS (56%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (45%) |
-150 | Vegas Odds | +140 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Brett Johns | vs | Tony Gravely |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
Record: 15-2-0 | Record | Record: 19-5-0 |
4 KO/TKO (40%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (13%) |
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (33%) |
-105 | Vegas Odds | -105 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
Herbert Burns | vs | Nate Landwehr |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
Record: 9-2-0 | Record | Record: 13-2-0 |
8 KO/TKO (42%) | Knockouts | 0 KO/TKO (0%) |
3 SUBMISSIONS (16%) | Subs | 7 SUBMISSIONS (78%) |
+100 | Vegas Odds | -120 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
#N/A | vs | #N/A |
#N/A | DFS Salary | #N/A |
Record | ||
8 KO/TKO (62%) | Knockouts | 0 KO/TKO (0%) |
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (100%) |
#N/A | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |