NASCAR DFS: Auto Club 400 Track Breakdown

Sunny SoCal beckons this week as the Cup Series continues the NASCAR Goes West part of the schedule with the second of three races out west, this weekend at Auto Club Speedway. Otherwise known as Fontana, because it’s located in Fontana, California, which is east of Los Angeles, this D-shaped oval is a 2-mile layout with 14 degrees of banking in the corners, 11 degrees on the front stretch, and three on the backstretch, it’s a unique challenge for the drivers.

The track is a nearly identical layout to Michigan in distance and being a D-shaped oval but the banking is different and the biggest change is the tire wear that happens at this track. It’s known to be one of the more abrasive track surfaces in the Cup series and nearly every pit stop, the call will be for four fresh tires as keeping fresh tires and tire wear to a minimum is the key to doing well at this track. The abrasive surface also keeps speeds lower than you’d see at Michigan typically and in this new aero package, it’s possible to see the field stretch out and so even though it’s a fairly large oval, lapping cars is still possible and the last three races have seen 22 or fewer cars finish on the lead lap including in 2018 when only 10 managed the feat. It’s also a track where starting position has historically been very important and that’s evident looking at the Finishes by Starting Spot Ranges table where you’ll see that the top-five have combined for three-quarters of the last four wins and the top-10 has nearly three-quarters of all top-five finishes out of the last 20. Two of the last three winners have also been from the Pole position.

Weekend Schedule

Friday, Feb. 28

Cup Practice: 3:05-3:55 pm ET and 5:30-6:25 pm ET

Saturday, Feb. 29

Cup Qualifying 2:30 pm ET

*Tech should happen before qualifying followed by impound after qualifying

Sunday, March 1

Auto Club 400 (200 laps 60-60-80) 3:30 pm ET

There will be a bit of a new look this year to the Track Breakdowns as the Last Four race tables have been broken down by tiers based on salary as well as the Momentum tables. There will also be some new stats presented in the Last Four tables as well as the Last Eight Races as well and for a breakdown of what those stats show, check out the updated Track Data Legend for a full description of every stat in all of the tables.

With that in mind, let’s breakdown how the drivers have done for this week’s race.

Drivers To Watch

Due to being under the weather, it’s been written this week.

Jimmie Johnson ($9,000 DK, $9,500 FD)

• Does it get any easier than a six-time winner at his home track racing it for the last time?

• In the last four races here, he’s got a win and two top-10s with a 12.0 avg. finish and positive 13.0 PD mark

• He ranks in the top-five on both sites in DFS scoring over the last five races at ACS and has the 10th best driver rating in span.

William Byron ($8,400 DK, $9,200 FD)

• The youngster has only raced twice here in the Cup series but has two top-20s and a +10.5 PD mark.

• He has two top-10s and six top-20s in his 10 races on similar tracks as well.

• Byron also had two top-10s in six similar races in this package last year. Also keep in mind his Crew Chief led Jimmie Johnson to six wins here as well.

Ryan Blaney ($9,400 DK, $10,500 FD)

• Just making the cut into the mid-tier and there’s a reason he’s that high on the list

• He has a top-five and three top-10s in his four career Cup races at the track and the second most Quality Passes per race.

• The driver of the 12-car also ranks sixth in DFS scoring in the last two Auto Club races.

Ross Chastain ($6,500 DK, $6,500 FD)

• Chastain is back in the 6-car again for Sunday and he had a very good showing for most of the race at Vegas.

• Chastain has a solid history here including moving up an average of five spots a race in worse equipment.

• The price on both sites makes him quite accessible this week for both formats

Chris Buescher ($7,200 DK, $7,000 FD) - Contrarian

• Buescher is the contrarian play this week and one look at his history here will show why.

• He has one top-20 in five Cup races and in the last four he’s gone backward 10.5 spots a race.

• However, in this package in six races last year he has a top-10 and six top-20s while moving up nearly 10 spots a race and held his ground well in this particular race last year.

Kevin Harvick ($11,600 DK, $14,500 FD) - Light Fade

• Harvick is the most expensive guy on both sites but for that price he’s average 14.5 DK points and 34.3 FD points in the last two Auto Club races.

• This is one of his worst tracks in his career with the fifth-worst average finish of any current tracks and when looking at Ovals with at least 10 races run on them in his career, Auto Club has seen him lead the fewest with 237 total in 26 races.

• He’s still Harvick and is still capable of winning, and has here, so you can’t completely fade him but being cautious with him might not be the worst idea.

Last Four Auto Club 400s

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3

Tier 4

Top-20 Drivers Over Last Eight Races at Auto Club

Top-20 Drivers Over Last 16 Similar Races (Auto Club, Chicagoland, Homestead, Michigan)

Momentum

This shows the six similar races to this race from last year in the same aero package and distance.

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3

Tier 4

Finishes By Starting Spot Ranges

This table is new for the 2020 season, it shows how many wins, top-fives, top-10s, and top-15s have come from starting spot ranges in groups of five (i.e. 1-5, 6-10) over the last four of this week’s specific race.

Team Averages At Auto Club (since Feb. 2018)

Scoring Averages Over Last Five Auto Club 400s

DraftKings

FanDuel

Weekly Rankings

The Race History, Auto Club History, and Track Type History columns are ranked on average finish over those spans and the DK and FD average columns are ranked from highest to lowest scoring averages over those spans. Best=1 and Worst =40.