After a crazy and frightening end to the Daytona 500 last week that saw the second-closest finish in the history of the race give the trophy to Denny Hamlin, the Cup series heads to Sin City for the Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

Vegas is a 1.5-mile track that fits squarely in the intermediate length of track, though this track is banked more steeply than most of those. The turns are tilted at 20 degrees and the front and back stretches are banked at at least nine degrees as well. The steepness of the track makes track position very important at this race as three of the last five runnings have seen at least three top-five starting spot drivers finish in the top-five at the end of the race. Last year, however, only two of them pulled that off and two of the other three spots were filled by drivers starting P19 or worse. Despite the track being located in the desert and in year-around hot temps, the track surface isn’t terribly tough on tires as tire wire isn’t a big part of the races here.

The scheduled distance of the race is 400 miles or 267 laps around the 1.5-mile circuit meaning there are a solid amount of laps led and fastest laps to get into your lineups this week. Focusing on the top-15 rate, position differential, laps led and laps led percentages, and as always the driver ratings are the best ways to find the top plays in this data.

There will be a bit of a new look this year to the Track Breakdowns as the Last Four race tables have been broken down by tiers based on salary as well as the Momentum tables. There will also be some new stats presented in the Last Four tables as well as the Last Eight Races as well and for a breakdown of what those stats show, check out the updated Track Data Legend for a full description of every stat in all of the tables.

With that in mind, let’s breakdown how the drivers have done for this week’s race.

Drivers To Watch

Last Four Pennzoil 400s

Tier 1

  Avg.Run.Avg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Kyle Busch4126.87.84.203333
Kevin Harvick479.712.5-5.512333
Martin Truex Jr49.87.463.812344
Brad Keselowski485.33.54.513444
Joey Logano474.63.53.513444
Denny Hamlin411.312.813-1.700124
Chase Elliott410.810.821-10.201222

  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsTop-15QPAvg.Laps.LC
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRate/RaceRatingComp/Race
Kyle Busch46115.37117.889.9%42.8107.31068267.0
Kevin Harvick430375.813934.880.6%30.0113.9869217.3
Martin Truex Jr415639.010927.389.7%41.5111.71068267.0
Brad Keselowski413032.513333.395.4%42.0116.01068267.0
Joey Logano419047.59423.597.9%46.5119.11068267.0
Denny Hamlin4102.5184.568.6%41.885.91066266.5
Chase Elliott400.0307.585.7%46.593.0941235.3

Tier 2

  Avg.Run.Avg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Kyle Larson48.51312.8-4.302233
Ryan Blaney47.810.310-2.201333
Kurt Busch412.313.819.8-7.501222
Alex Bowman215.51513.5200012
William Byron218.520.321.5-300001
Jimmie Johnson412.51211.31.201134
Erik Jones311.711.412-0.300123

  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsTop-15QPAvg.Laps.LC
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRate/RaceRatingComp/Race
Kyle Larson400.0256.364.5%31.891.71063265.8
Ryan Blaney410.3379.377.8%34.596.01067266.8
Kurt Busch45413.5338.361.2%34.085.2980245.0
Alex Bowman200.0147.028.9%45.574.3532266.0
William Byron22110.563.021.0%33.564.3530265.0
Jimmie Johnson49523.88220.568.3%45.391.91066266.5
Erik Jones300.0186.067.4%49.788.5801267.0

Tier 3

  Avg.Run.Avg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Clint Bowyer41917.616300023
Aric Almirola422.818.113.8900133
Ricky Stenhouse Jr41516.316.3-1.300133
Matt DiBenedetto430.827.1255.800000
Christopher Bell          
Cole Custer13027.625500000
Austin Dillon411.81715.8-401122
Chris Buescher426.323.920.55.800002
Tyler Reddick          
Bubba Wallace223.523.323.5000000
Ross Chastain235.530.8314.500000
Daniel Suarez31718.721-400001
John Hunter Nemechek          

  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsTop-15QPAvg.Laps.LC
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRate/RaceRatingComp/Race
Clint Bowyer400.030.841.0%21.869.11066266.5
Aric Almirola400.092.342.0%27.876.51066266.5
Ricky Stenhouse Jr451.371.846.0%33.379.31060265.0
Matt DiBenedetto400.061.52.2%4.547.01058264.5
Christopher Bell          
Cole Custer100.000.00.1%2.039.800.0
Austin Dillon441.0164.039.5%18.577.91065266.3
Chris Buescher400.051.310.7%14.356.61064266.0
Tyler Reddick          
Bubba Wallace200.021.00.1%0.054.5529264.5
Ross Chastain200.000.0 1.035.6259129.5
Daniel Suarez3124.072.318.3%21.063.7797265.7
John Hunter Nemechek          

Tier 4

  Avg.Run.Avg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Michael McDowell421.826.828.5-6.700001
Ty Dillon32325.424.7-1.700000
Ryan Preece12425.825-100000
Corey Lajoie23231.933-100000
Garrett Smithley          
JJ Yeley          
Reed Sorenson23734.833.53.500000
Brennan Poole          
Joey Gase236.536.5351.500000
Quin Houff          
Timmy Hill13936.737200000

  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsTop-15QPAvg.Laps.LC
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRate/RaceRatingComp/Race
Michael McDowell4130.080.04.8%5.548.9896224.0
Ty Dillon320.710.32.3%5.348.5795265.0
Ryan Preece100.000.00.1%2.046.3265265.0
Corey Lajoie200.000.01.3%3.035.3280140.0
Garrett Smithley          
JJ Yeley          
Reed Sorenson200.000.00.0%0.031.0514257.0
Brennan Poole          
Joey Gase200.002.50.0%0.024.9263131.5
Quin Houff          
Timmy Hill100.002.50.0%0.027.500.0

Top-20 Drivers Over Last Eight Races at Las Vegas

  Avg.Run.Avg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Brad Keselowski89.573.36.236888
Martin Truex Jr811.66.65.56.125688
Kevin Harvick88.89.816.6-7.824555
Joey Logano86.95.75.11.815788
Kyle Larson810.312.511-0.703567
Ryan Blaney712.9129.9303556
Kyle Busch713.110.19.73.403456
Chase Elliott69.710.820.7-1102333
Ryan Newman81914.311.87.201367
Jimmie Johnson811.312.515.6-4.301256
  Avg.Run.Avg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Denny Hamlin813.412.314.5-1.101247
Kurt Busch712.114.523.6-11.501222
Austin Dillon812.615.715.3-2.701145
Aric Almirola816.817.515.61.200255
Ricky Stenhouse Jr815.419.322.1-6.700133
Alex Bowman620.32222-1.700124
Erik Jones512.417.422.4-1000123
Daniel Suarez514.416.918.2-3.800112
William Byron41818.421.8-3.800112
Clint Bowyer814.416.719.5-5.100023

  LapsLaps LedLapsLCAvg.
Driver#Led/RaceComp/RaceRating
Brad Keselowski826733.42141267.6113.5
Martin Truex Jr828735.92141267.6115.2
Kevin Harvick852966.11787223.4114.4
Joey Logano843254.02141267.6115.9
Kyle Larson8263.32135266.993.7
Ryan Blaney720.31872267.492
Kyle Busch711416.31873267.6100.4
Chase Elliott6122.01419236.595.5
Ryan Newman8141.82138267.380.4
Jimmie Johnson817421.82106263.392.4
  LapsLaps LedLapsLCAvg.
Driver#Led/RaceComp/RaceRating
Denny Hamlin8151.92112264.086.8
Kurt Busch7547.71702243.183.4
Austin Dillon840.52136267.079.3
Aric Almirola830.42133266.677.1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr850.62104263.071.7
Alex Bowman600.01357226.265.1
Erik Jones500.01202240.481.9
Daniel Suarez5418.21335267.068.8
William Byron4276.81007251.872.4
Clint Bowyer810.12133266.671.3

Top-20 Drivers Over Last 16 Similar Races (Homestead, Kansas, Kentucky, Vegas)

  Avg.Run.Avg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Martin Truex Jr167.16.98.3-1.259101315
Brad Keselowski166.310.810.6-4.338101213
Kyle Busch166.95.47.1-0.2211121414
Kevin Harvick166.56.18-1.5210131414
Joey Logano1610.69.911.7-1.127111213
Kurt Busch169.411.313.9-4.51481011
Jimmie Johnson1616.216.617.6-1.4123811
Kyle Larson1616.49.712.34.107101213
Chase Elliott1613.713.714.9-1.20471012
Ryan Blaney168.613.516.3-7.7046910
  Avg.Run.Avg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Erik Jones1213.311.811.32.003789
Denny Hamlin169.311.813.3-4.0036914
Clint Bowyer1619.715.413.46.30151013
Ryan Newman1618.316.417.31.001479
Austin Dillon1615.416.515.8-0.4013712
Alex Bowman915.117.717.4-2.301237
Aric Almirola1517.91717.50.4004810
Daniel Suarez121517.419.3-4.300247
Ricky Stenhouse Jr1614.317.517.7-3.4001912
Tyler Reddick12115.9912.000111

 

  LapsFast LapsLapsLCAvg.
Driver#Led %/RaceComp/RaceRating
Martin Truex Jr1623.837.74288268.0115
Brad Keselowski166.115.04102256.498.6
Kyle Busch161325.54297268.6114.8
Kevin Harvick1618.732.14175260.9117.5
Joey Logano167.411.94085255.3100.4
Kurt Busch163.76.94121257.691.8
Jimmie Johnson162.48.34039252.478.9
Kyle Larson169.920.54242265.1101.4
Chase Elliott1616.14098256.189.2
Ryan Blaney163.411.24140258.888.3
  LapsFast LapsLapsLCAvg.
Driver#Led %/RaceComp/RaceRating
Erik Jones120.16.03623301.989.1
Denny Hamlin161.46.04270266.988.1
Clint Bowyer161.32.14291268.278.9
Ryan Newman160.40.84070254.474.8
Austin Dillon160.23.34263266.477.1
Alex Bowman92.77.33325369.476.3
Aric Almirola1502.93962264.177
Daniel Suarez1222.43692307.771.2
Ricky Stenhouse Jr161.12.84005250.374.8
Tyler Reddick101.0271271.078.1

Momentum

This shows the 11 similar races to this race from last year in the same aero package and distance.

Tier 1

  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTopLapsFast LapsAvg.
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520Led %/RaceRating
Kyle Busch1112.18.67.94.21689101431.1112.8
Kevin Harvick11107.67.42.6168101014.328.5111.0
Martin Truex Jr1116.5108.38.22478118.725.7103.9
Brad Keselowski1110.715.214.8-4.1255584.313.186.5
Joey Logano1115.210.910.44.81467108.215.899.8
Denny Hamlin111011.413-3233697.11095.3
Chase Elliott1114.212.712.41.80456104.214.791.3

Tier 2

  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTopLapsFast LapsAvg.
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520Led %/RaceRating
Kyle Larson1114.312.516.7-2.4024887.117.992.8
Ryan Blaney1114.312.917.9-3.6012663.113.288.2
Kurt Busch1111.911.212-0.1148884.816.597.2
Alex Bowman1114.514.110.83.70257112.8985.9
William Byron1111.11215.9-4.8014482.47.586.0
Jimmie Johnson1111.714.316-4.3013683.55.281.1
Erik Jones1115.114.611.53.6157993.111.189.4

Tier 3

  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTopLapsFast LapsAvg.
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520Led %/RaceRating
Clint Bowyer1111.911.810.21.7037992.96.390.1
Aric Almirola1113.712.812.41.3014892.99.788.6
Ricky Stenhouse Jr1113.617.618.4-4.8012481.45.477.6
Matt DiBenedetto1122.221.4220.2001240.30.959.2
Christopher Bell             
Cole Custer             
Austin Dillon1110.916.218.5-7.6001560.23.275.8
Chris Buescher1122.51713.78.80026100.41.172.1
Tyler Reddick12115.9912001110178.1
Bubba Wallace1121.924.726.6-4.7000000251.5
Ross Chastain1133.332.331.22.10000000.636.6
Daniel Suarez1110.11313.6-3.5023794.3785.7
John Hunter Nemechek             

Tier 4

  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTopLapsFast LapsAvg.
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520Led %/RaceRating
Michael McDowell1119.524.926.5-7000010.51.952.5
Ty Dillon1123.424.522.90.50000201.152.8
Ryan Preece1124.523.824.40.10001100.553.1
Corey Lajoie1128.429.627.90.50001101.443.2
Garrett Smithley63635.334.71.30000000.831.0
JJ Yeley53531.73050000000.438.2
Reed Sorenson83535.13410000000.330.4
Brennan Poole             
Joey Gase638.837.336.32.50000000.325.8
Quin Houff434.332.932.320000000.834.0
Timmy Hill539.238.137.220000000.625.8

Finishes By Starting Spot Ranges

This table is new for the 2020 season, it shows how many wins, top-fives, top-10s, and top-15s, have come from starting spot ranges in groups of five (i.e. 1-5, 6-10) over the last four of this week’s specific race.

Start TopTopTop
RangeW51015
1-53121616
6-1012914
11-1503813
16-200128
21-250135
26-300124
31-350000
36-400000
Total4204060

Team Averages At Las Vegas (since Feb. 2018)

TeamAvg FinRacesWinsTop 5Top 10
Team Penske5.83122811
Wood Brothers Racing124002
Richard Childress Racing14.58001
Joe Gibbs Racing15.3116138
Stewart-Haas Racing15.9416136
Chip Ganassi Racing17.58034
Hendrick Motorsports17.8816014

Scoring Averages Over Last Five Pennzoil 400s

DraftKings

Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgDK Seas. Avg.
Kyle Busch58.2566.51375 62.3853.1961.74
Kevin Harvick85132.5-1246.75138108.7578.0550.73
Martin Truex Jr62.553115.532.552.7557.7563.2558.36
Brad Keselowski73.754789.7571.546.7560.3865.7540.89
Joey Logano92.549.7550.7580.548.2571.1364.3546.01
Denny Hamlin3032.547.518.55531.2536.7049.37
Kyle Larson29.549.548-6.53439.5030.9037.98
Chase Elliott41.5-1555.5-16 13.2516.5035.96
Ryan Blaney1841.2535.5513729.6336.5537.22
Kurt Busch73.75-22243.25 25.8824.2536.37
Alex Bowman35.536.5  -14.7536.0019.0833.96
William Byron39.757.5   23.6323.6330.72
Jimmie Johnson17.538.558.2586.5-2.2528.0039.7026.62
Erik Jones38.543.522  41.0034.6732.18
Clint Bowyer3419.537352226.7529.5029.33
Aric Almirola5953.54637.556.2533.8029.41
Ricky Stenhouse Jr44.75237361833.8825.7521.86
Matt DiBenedetto30322317 31.0025.5031.51
Christopher Bell      0.000
Cole Custer 24   24.0024.000
Austin Dillon133417.541.52923.5027.0024.74
Chris Buescher3544.52317 39.7529.8830.28
Tyler Reddick      0.0035.33
Bubba Wallace1428   21.0021.0022.74
Ross Chastain16    16.0016.0022.33
Daniel Suarez3710.516  23.7521.1729.67
Michael McDowell0-8.2534.51616-4.1311.6517.76
Ty Dillon0.52726.5  13.7518.0028.43
Ryan Preece18    18.0018.0023.52
John Hunter Nemechek      0.0026.17
Corey Lajoie20 0  20.0010.0022.97
Garrett Smithley      0.0013.21
JJ Yeley    12 12.0021.2
Reed Sorenson9 19  9.0014.0014.56
Brennan Poole      0.000
Joey Gase417   10.5010.5014.27
Quin Houff      0.0013.86
Timmy Hill  9   9.0013.67

FanDuel

Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgFD Seas. Avg.
Kyle Busch6673.239.277 69.6063.8526.03
Kevin Harvick7191.60.360.392.481.3063.1247.00
Martin Truex Jr67.264.385.256.27065.7568.5829.17
Brad Keselowski76.962.769.673.663.669.8069.2828.73
Joey Logano82.864.765.274.158.473.7569.0440.00
Denny Hamlin53.751.566.244.769.752.6057.1654.90
Kyle Larson53.265.768.224.758.259.4554.0048.13
Chase Elliott60.211.369.212.9 35.7538.4041.53
Ryan Blaney41.160.858.765.754.150.9556.0850.20
Kurt Busch76.58.330.857.8 42.4043.3532.87
Alex Bowman56.753.5  -4.155.1035.3727.63
William Byron55.835.3   45.5545.5523.63
Jimmie Johnson43.656.661.176.313.150.1050.1432.13
Erik Jones57.260.249.2  58.7055.5346.83
Clint Bowyer55.24659.252.24650.6051.7248.13
Aric Almirola69.767.161.735.135.968.4053.9038.27
Ricky Stenhouse Jr63.25032.157.739.456.6048.4836.35
Matt DiBenedetto49.150.44437.8 49.7545.3340.85
Christopher Bell       37.25
Cole Custer 44.9   44.9044.9025.95
Austin Dillon39.856.141.162.95047.9549.9850.63
Chris Buescher54.25945.641.1 56.6049.9852.00
Tyler Reddick       33.20
Bubba Wallace3948.9   43.9543.9546.45
Ross Chastain36.4    36.4036.40 
Daniel Suarez54.437.343.2  45.8544.9720.30
Michael McDowell30.34.153.939.138.417.2033.1644.50
Ty Dillon30.946.948.4  38.9042.0732.90
Ryan Preece42    42.0042.0030.15
John Hunter Nemechek       46.20
Corey Lajoie41.9 1.1  41.9021.5047.70
Garrett Smithley       34.69
JJ Yeley    33 33.0023.10
Reed Sorenson30.7 39.2  30.7034.9531.30
Brennan Poole       42.40
Joey Gase336.8   19.9019.9035.75
Quin Houff       18.60
Timmy Hill  18.5   18.5034.00

Weekly Rankings

The Race History, Momentum, Vegas History, and Track Type History columns are ranked on average finish over those spans and the DK and FD average columns are ranked from highest to lowest scoring averages over those spans. Best=1 and Worst =40.

DriverDK$FD $Race HistoryRace Avg. RatingMomentumDK Avg L2FD Avg L2DK Avg L5FD Avg L5Vegas HistoryTrack Type History
Kyle Busch$12,400$14,000452345441
Kevin Harvick$12,000$13,5008311115112
Martin Truex Jr$11,600$11,500343564333
Brad Keselowski$11,100$12,0001215432115
Joey Logano$10,700$13,000116223227
Denny Hamlin$10,200$12,50010111212127679
Kyle Larson$9,800$10,00099189711968
Chase Elliott$9,500$11,00018710272725241512
Ryan Blaney$9,200$10,5005620141387514
Kurt Busch$8,900$9,30016129172217212011
DriverDK$FD $Race HistoryRace Avg. RatingMomentumDK Avg L2FD Avg L2DK Avg L5FD Avg L5Vegas HistoryTrack Type History
Alex Bowman$8,700$9,00011167101122261715
William Byron$8,500$8,700201816201919161624
Jimmie Johnson$8,400$8,40068171515612917
Erik Jones$8,200$9,60071087898196
Clint Bowyer$8,000$8,00014175161413111410
Aric Almirola$7,800$8,300121510651010916
Ricky Stenhouse Jr$7,600$6,00015132111915151818
Matt DiBenedetto$7,400$7,800232423131616172127
Christopher Bell$7,200$7,0004040 303133334040
Cole Custer$7,100$6,6002326 182018192325
DriverDK$FD $Race HistoryRace Avg. RatingMomentumDK Avg L2FD Avg L2DK Avg L5FD Avg L5Vegas HistoryTrack Type History
Austin Dillon$6,900$7,60013142221171413813
Chris Buescher$6,700$7,2001720148912141320
Tyler Reddick$6,500$6,2004040430313333404
Bubba Wallace$6,300$5,000212128222121202521
Ross Chastain$6,100#N/A272732252626252740
Daniel Suarez$6,000$5,500181913191820181219
Michael McDowell$5,800$4,500262227323029282923
Ty Dillon$5,700$4,000222324262523222226
Ryan Preece$5,500$4,000232525242323232422
John Hunter Nemechek$5,400$5,5004040 303133334040
DriverDK$FD $Race HistoryRace Avg. RatingMomentumDK Avg L2FD Avg L2DK Avg L5FD Avg L5Vegas HistoryTrack Type History
Corey Lajoie$5,300$3,500282830232431302628
Garrett Smithley$5,100$2,000404037303133333133
JJ Yeley$5,000$2,000404031303128292730
Reed Sorenson$4,900$3,000292935292827273029
Brennan Poole$4,800$2,5004040 303133334040
Joey Gase$4,700$2,500303038282930313234
Quin Houff$4,600$2,000404033303133334032
Timmy Hill$4,500$2,000314040303132323231