Patience and plate discipline is a bit of an art form in the professional baseball landscape. The more patient and discipline you are at the dish, the better hitter you are. It’s not a groundbreaking concept by any stretch of the imagination and by no means are we re-inventing the wheel here: drawing a walk is better than striking out. Duh. In 2018, José Ramírez saw a jump in nearly every statistical category: home runs, RBI, stolen bases, etc. It was the third straight year he logged 600+ plate appearances and from 2017-to-2018 his walk rate increased from 8.1% to 15.2%. To give that a numerical value, he walked 52 times in 2017 and that jumped to 106 walks last season. That is a phenomenal leap. Are walks sexy? Hardly, but these guys get on base and that helps in leagues that rewards runs, on-base percentage, and it sets the faster guys up for steals. Billy Hamilton truthers would lose their minds if he could get his walk rate over 10.0%.
Base on Balls
We’ll start with the free passes. Typically an “elite” walk rate is anything above 13.0%. Truth be told, a walk rate of 10% is pretty decent as well as long as the strikeout rate isn’t an abomination. To no surprise at all, Mike Trout led the league in walk rate in 2018. If you know anything about Mike Trout , he’s pretty good at playing baseball. In 608 plate appearances he walked 20.1% of the time. He drew 122 walks last season, which is absolutely insane. But that’s what makes him just a great hitter and such a dominant force in fantasy baseball. Yes he’s patient at the plate and can produce power as well as steals, but when you’re averaging three walks every four games you’re doing something right.
Unfortunately if you don’t have one of the top two picks you have no shot at getting Mike Trout . Sorry, but that’s how it goes. But you’ll still have a shot at getting the previously-mentioned José Ramírez in the middle of the first round possibly. Here are the 22 players that logged at least a 13.0% walk rate last season:
- Mike Trout – 20.1%
- Bryce Harper – 18.7%
- Joey Votto – 17.3%
- Carlos Santana – 16.2%
- Aaron Hicks – 15.5%
Kyle Schwarber – 15.3%- José Ramírez – 15.2%
- Matt Carpenter – 15.1%
- Brandon Nimmo – 15.0%
- Justin Bour – 14.6%
- Justin Smoak – 14.0%
- Andrew McCutchen – 13.9%
- Yasmani Grandal – 13.9%
- Shin-Soo Choo – 13.8%
- Alex Bregman – 13.6%
- César Hernández – 13.4%
- Travis Shaw – 13.3%
- Josh Bell – 13.2%
- Mookie Betts – 13.2%
- Rhys Hoskins – 13.2%
- Michael Conforto – 13.2%
- Paul Goldschmidt – 13.0%
It’s worth mentioning Joey Gallo would’ve been next on the list with a 12.8% walk rate, but he also comes with a horrendous strikeout rate, but we’ll get to that later. Most, if not all, of the players listed above were solid fantasy contributors last season. One guy who really stands out is Aaron Hicks who is coming off a 15.5% walk rate last season and he is currently being drafted outside the Top 200 in most drafts. Now there’s a concern over playing time and regression. But in a points league he may be one to keep an eye on. Again, we’ll get to that later on.
But as you can see from the list above, these are some of the best hitters in the game. They’re also some of the more well-rounded players as well. So while power numbers may get all the praise, the walk rate will show the players that see the ball the best. The cream always rises to the top, folks. But walks are an underrated commodity in fantasy baseball so don’t overlook them.
Strikeouts
Strikeouts are a killer for hitters, but the interesting thing is that you can tolerate an inflated strikeout rate if the walk rate is reasonable or if it completely negates the strikeout rate. Mike Trout ’s 20.1% walk rate looks great, but he struck out just a little bit more at 20.4%. That doesn’t make Trout a risk when he’s registering a ‘K’ every five plate appearances. It’s not a surprise that some power hitters whiff more. They swing harder and faster so they’re more exposed to getting K’d up. Bryce Harper , another elite hitter who walked a healthy amount, also struck out at a higher clip (24.3%). But Harper still hit for 30+ home runs, 100+ runs and RBI. You’ll take that kind of production despite the less-than-flattering strikeout rate. This same argument can be applied to players like Matt Carpenter , Rhys Hoskins , Paul Goldschmidt , and Giancarlo Stanton (who has a 28.0% career strikeout rate).
While there are certain players whose strikeout rate is worth tolerating, there are others that are just so bad with K’s, they’re not worth holding on to. Chris Davis is a power hitter who clubbed 53 home runs in 2013, 47 in 2015, 38 in 2016, 26 in 2017, and just 16 last year. The power is going down just like the plate discipline, as evidenced by his ever-growing strikeout rate. He led the league last season with a 36.8% clip. That’s truly terrible. In 128 games last season he struck out 192 times. He missed 34 games and still finished with the fourth-most strikeouts in 2018. Owning Chris Davis is like putting yourself in fantasy purgatory.
Here’s a little perspective on the impact strikeouts have. Of the 30 players with the highest strikeout rates in the league, only 13 players finished with a batting average over .250 and only seven hit for at least .265 so strikeouts take a toll. Now to reiterate, there are still some players in this group that need to be owned. Giancarlo Stanton , Justin Upton , Khris Davis , Javier Báez , Trevor Story , Paul Goldschmidt , Bryce Harper , Yasmani Grandal , and Cody Bellinger all fell into this group. But they offer production elsewhere in the counting statistics (home runs, runs, RBI’s) that make the strikeouts worth tolerating. But for players who don’t have as much upside and whose walk rate pales in comparison to the strikeout rate, they may be worth passing. Joey Gallo is a hot topic of conversation. While he strikes out a lot (35.9% K-rate in 2018) his walk rate is pretty good (12.8%) and he’s clubbed at least 40 home runs in each of the last two seasons. So in a categories league or a rotisserie format, you can recover from some of his shortcomings at the dish.
It is worth bringing up Yoan Moncada though. Moncada, one of the most touted young prospects over the past few years, was a key piece in the trade that sent Chris Sale to Boston with Moncada and other prospects going to Chicago. Moncada registered a strikeout every three at-bats last season. We won’t mince words because that’s a terrible number. But he’s still a young player and there is typically a learning curve with younger players in terms of plate discipline. The strikeout rate did drop a little bit as the season progressed, but not enough to move the needle too much. For example, he struck out in 30.1% of plate appearances in September, but only walked 9.7% of the time. So with younger players give them the benefit of the doubt to an extent because patience takes a little time.
Points Leagues
I’m going to briefly touch on this topic because almost two weeks ago I wrote up a Points League article for this draft guide. Walks and strikeouts play a very big role in points leagues because typically you earn a point for a walk and lose one for a strikeout. So with Mike Trout , his walks and strikeouts almost negated each other. For Yoan Moncada , he struck out almost three times as much as he walked. So every point he gained for a walk, he’d then lose three points. Chris Davis is another points league killer. The power is down for him and he’s striking out too much while not walking enough. So if you’re struggling in a points league deciding between two players, the best suggestion one can make is to take the player with the better plate discipline and walk rate.
It can’t be stressed enough how important walks are. They lead to more opportunities to score and possibly log bases and they help out in on-base percentage and OPS. Strikeouts give you nothing. And as stated above, in a points league they’ll cost you dearly. In a categories or rotisserie league you’re just sacrificing batting average. But in points league strikeouts carry much more weight. I have complete faith in the FANation to find the best and most patient hitters. Examine and use these rates wisely!