WE’RE NOW DUMPING KEPLER?

Max Kepler was a star a month ago. People freaked out when I suggested that he wasn’t as good as he looked.

I took a week off of work.

I returned to find question after question about folks wanting to dump Kepler. My question is – why?

Some perspective that is obviously lacking here.

Kepler has appeared in 80 games. Double his games played total and he would hit 30 homers with 106 RBI, 84 runs scored and 10 steals. You’re going to be disappointed with that? Remember, this guy had three games of big league experience before this season. That’s a Hall of Fame level of production if you do it for a decade.

Kepler has hit .267 with a .352 OBP and .545 SLG this season.

By the way, George Springer is batting .265 with a .365 OBP and .478 SLG this season.

Kepler hasn’t hit a homer in 17 games and has one RBI in nine games. Again, so what? It seems like folks don’t’ seem to care that Kepler has an OPS of .823 in August, two points above his season long mark. Kepler has hit .278 in August, .025 points better than his season long mark. Kepler also has a .365 OBP in the month, .031 points better than his season long mark.

I have warned, over and over again, that Kepler wasn’t going to be able to maintain his homer pace in terms of his HR/FB ratio. He hasn’t. Shocker.

Kepler is fine, that is unless you were one of the many who seemingly thought he was the second coming of Chris Davis.

GOMEZ GETS ANOTHER SHOT

Carlos Gomez has joined the Rangers, you know that already, but did you see the report that came out suggesting that Gomez will play daily in left field for the club? "We'll get him out there and let him play," manager Jeff Banister said Sunday morning. "This is a veteran outfielder who, when he is out there, can impact the game. This is not a young guy who has to get by with youthful exuberance. He's got exuberance, but he is in the middle part of his career. This is a guy who can take over a game."

This means that the Rangers outfield will look like this: Gomez in left field, Ian Desmond in center and Nomar Mazara in right. A quick look at the three men who will see the majority of the work out there.

Desmond has stopped hitting. It was always going to happen folks. He’s not a .300 hitter, a mark he was blowing past at mid-season hitting .322 over his first 89 games. Since then he’s been way more Ian Desmond like with a .221 batting average over 34 games. In those 34 games the walks are disappearing (six) while the strikeouts remain (38). His approach, always poor, has finally crushed his OBP which sits at .250 since the All-Star Game. It’s worse than that. In August he’s posted a .499 OPS with no homers and one steal. Things may not turn around much for Ian who already has a career best 85 runs scored, 20 homers (five off his career best), and an .811 OPS which would be only the second time the mark has been over .785. Great overall, but limping to the finish line is Desmond.

Mazara posted a .282/.330/.420 slash line before the All-Star break. Since the break the numbers are .276/.343/.429. Since May 1st his slash line is .271/.322/.415. Again, the same numbers we’ve basically seen all year. Yep, same guy. He still can’t hit lefties (.233/.273/.272 in 109 plate appearances), and he’s not the hitter we saw in April (.333/.392/.460). Just put out of your head April and you will know what Mazara is – solid, but nothing more in mixed leagues.

Gomez is 30 years old. In 2012 he went 19/37. In 2013 he went 24/40. In 2014 he went 23/34. He was a fantasy dynamo with his power/speed combo. The last two years it’s all fallen apart. Gomez has just 17 homers and 30 steals… his last 200 games played. Yeah, he’s off his game the last two season as he’s seemingly dealt with injury after injury. The hope was that he would be healthy this season and things would improve. They haven’t. Eventually released by the Astros, Gomez heads to the Rangers with a .210/.272/.322 slash line. That’s just pathetic. Why the struggles?

The walk rate is the same as always, poor, but it’s the swings and misses that stand out and it’s never been worse than this year. Gomez has a 31 percent strikeout rate, miles above his 23 percent career mark. For his career he’s made contact on 59 percent of his swings on pitches outside the strike zone. The mark has plummeted to 49 percent this season. His rate of contact on swings inside the strike zone this season is 77.6 percent. The mark has never been below 83.7 percent before. His swinging strike rate this season is 17.7 percent. That’s also a career worst and way above his 13.3 percent mark. He’s just not putting the bat on the ball. Period. Until he does this one thing better, making contact, his performance simply will not improve.

DFS DIAMONDS

*The following list of players are guys that Ray recommends as daily plays.

CATCHER: Sandy Leon takes on Blake Snell hitting .435 with four homers over 46 at-bats against lefties. He’s been remarkable. Meanwhile, Snell has a 1.54 WHIP this season and has walked eight batters and allowed six runs over his last two starts totaling just 6.2 innings.

FIRST BASE: Josh Bell, if in the lineup, has a nice matchup against Doug Fister who has allowed lefties this hit a robust .294/.355/.465 against him this season.   

SECOND BASE: Scooter Gennett takes on Chad Bettis in Milwaukee. Bettis has a poor set of ratios in the second half (4.35 ERA, 1.45 WHIP), and he doesn’t strike many out (28 in 39.1 innings). Lefties are also hitting .290 against him this season. Scooter has hit .297 with a .778 OPS against righties in his career.  

SHORTSTOP: Addison Russell has hit .333 with three homers and seven RBI the last seven days. In fact, the three homers have come his last three games. Edwin Jackson has allowed a poor .280/.345/.432 line to righties this season and even pitching at Petco hasn’t helped (4.76 ERA, 1.41 WHIP).
  
OUTFIELD: Carlos Gonzalez takes on Jimmy Nelson who has allowed lefties this post a .798 OPS this season. In four starts in August Nelson has a 10.31 ERA, 2.13 WHIP and 1.58 K/BB ratio flashing abysmal work.

OUTFIELD: Tyler Naquin has a .322/.377/.612 slash line against righties. Amazing really. He’s hit 14 homers as well in 214 at-bats. He takes on Andrew Triggs who has made only three starts this season. His last two outings have encompassed 9.2 innings as he’s allowed four runs. On the year he’s posted a 4.98 ERA and 1.38 WHIP.

OUTFIELD: Chris Owings has hit .315/.359/.466 in August for the Diamondbacks. He faces Mike Foltynewicz who over his last five outings has a 5.93 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 6.91 K/9 and 3.29 BB/9 rate.    

 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday/Tuesday and Thursday/Friday, 8 PM EDT, Wednesday 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 11 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).