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Max Kepler or David Dahl in a head to head league? Thanks.
@timster2340

Since July 1st Kepler has been an absolute beast, and then some, as the best power hitter in baseball with 12 homers, 33 RBI and a .689 SLG over 28 games. That’s insane production if your name is Harper or Trout. Let’s be real here. Kepler never hit more than 10 homers in six seasons in the minors. He’s viewed as a 15-20 homer bat by the baseball establishment, not the monster we’re seeing now. He’s also not going to hold on to the 23.4 percent HR/FB ratio he owns, no way no how. It’s also a pretty good bet his .560 SLG will regress, substantially. His minor league mark is just .446. Despite all that hitting, Kepler is still batting just .263, a number that he’s “earned” with middling BABIP (.270) and line drive marks (16.0 percent). In fact, his overall game doesn’t even say ‘.263 hitter.’ A strong talent, but this isn’t sustainable, at all, even for Harper or Trout. As hot as Max has been, the drop-off could be catastrophic if the regression monster hits all at once.

Dahl is a slightly better talent. Dahl calls Coors Field home. Dahl can steal a base, certainly at a higher rate that Kepler. Dahl has also started out his career likely gangbusters as well hitting .389 with a .421 OBP and .583 SLG. By the way, Dahl’s OPS of 1.004 is way higher than the .907 mark of Kepler.

If I was in a keeper league it would be Dahl.

If we’re just talking 2016 I would still go Dahl, but it’s extremely close.

See the updated PLAYER RANKINGS.

Should I pick up Alex Dickerson or Travis Jankowski? Who will dominate the outfield for the Padres?
@theschwabby

I get questions like this all the time. My answer is usually some snarky form of ‘how the hell do I know what you need?’ Here’s what I mean.

You don’t have to “win” every deal or decision to win.

You have to factor in your team, it’s makeup, and your place in the standings.

You then have to target your needs.

First off, neither guy will “dominate.” Just not who they are.

Second, Hunter Renfroe and Manuel Margot are two elite level outfield prospects that will likely be up in September with the Padres, so playing time could be an issue for Alex and/or Travis at some point.

Dickerson is all power, Jankowski is all speed. What does your team need? Will 10 homers or 10 steals make more of a difference to your place in the standings? In a vacuum, steals are more valuable than homers. However, if you don’t have a need for steals then why bother with Travis who has one homer and just seven RBI over 198 plate appearances?

You have to choose the player that helps your team in the standings the most.

10-team keeper league. Adrian Gonzalez and Andrew McCutchen for Carlos Gonzalez. Thoughts?
@inafrostbeavs

The best keeper of the three is obviously Cargo. Then other two men aren’t fifty miles behind, but they certainly lag.

AGone has been a failure this season based upon expectations. Gonzalez has posted 90 RBI in 9-straight seasons. He’s only at 51 in 103 games and appears likely to fall a bit short. He’s averaged 26 homers the past three seasons. That’s not happening this season as he has nine. Disappointing. But, he’s not washed up. Since July 1st he’s hit .305 with a .391 OBP and .453 SLG. AGone is hitting .282 this season. That’s better than the last two years. AGone has a .360 OBP, that would be a five year best. AGone has a 0.57 BB/K ratio, one hundredth off his career level. The power is seemingly gone, but that doesn’t mean he’s useless.

McCutchen has never been at a lower point since he emerged after he was benched for the series against the Braves (provided he doesn’t suit up Thursday night). “I know it's going to give these guys some opportunities and a chance to go out there and get themselves in a rhythm, and I'm all for the team and all for my teammates. That's the reason why I'm not going to mope or pout about it." When he returns, it sounds like it won’t be to the #3 spot in the order. "The easiest part of my job is to put McCutchen in this lineup," manager Clint Hurdle said, "And I told him, 'I'm willing to make a sacrifice. I need you to make one with me for the betterment of this thing moving forward.” There’s no way around it, McCutchen has been a failure based on expectations. Still, he’s on pace for 23 homers, 65 RBI and 85 runs. That still plays in a mixed league. Just 29 years old, his days of superstardom are likely done, but that doesn’t mean he is done.

I don’t know your keeper rules, but I would be hard pressed to give up the two vets for Cargo unless I kept a very small amount of players which would increase the importance of Cargo.

Sonny Gray just dropped in my league. Is he worth a shot? Any chance he turns around or is he a lost cause this year?
@TheFantasyKid

At this point you cannot expect a “return” to last season from Sonny. With so much water under the bridge, it’s not gonna happen.

Through 20 starts Gray has a 5.84 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. Those are abysmal numbers. The key issue for Gray is that he simply cannot consistently get batters out. Here are his earned run marks over his last six starts: 7, 1, 3, 7, 3, 7. He’s alternated good efforts with horrific work. Vexing. When he makes a mistake he gets hammered. (1) His BABIP of .321 follows on the heels of 3-straight seasons under .280. (2) Gray has an 18.9 percent HR/FB ratio which is double the mark he posted the last three years (9.2 percent). However… (3) His velocity is unchanged. (4) His K-rate is unchanged (7.38 per nine this season, 7.62 for his career). (5) His ground ball rate is the same (54.8 percent this season, 54.3 for his career). (6) His GB/FB ratio is the same (2.04 this season, 1.95 for his career). There are seeds here, but he’s worth nothing more than a bench spot at the moment in mixed leagues - at best.

Steven Matz and Jeurys Familia for Gerrit Cole too much to give? Need a fifth starters and have six closers.
@czajkowski_John

I spoke about Cole in a Daily Dive video this week.

Matz is a great talent. In his first full season in the big leagues he has solid ratios (3.63 ERA and 1.27) with strong strikeout (8.47 per nine) and walk (2.12 per nine) totals. He also owns an impressive 50.4 percent ground ball rate. He’s really had a above board season. Alas, he’s had multiple setbacks this season with his health, carrying on a yearly tradition of ill health. He’s also been a mess his last eight starts with a 1-5 record, 5.01 ERA with a 1.48 WHIP with a K-rate per nine that is down a full batter at 7.52 per nine.

Familia has had a rough two weeks, but since the start of last season he’s been rather impressive. Familia has 80 saves, a 2.31 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 9.65 K/9 and 3.29 K/BB ratio. Those may not be flat out elite numbers, but they are rock star at least. I’m concerned that his walk rate has doubled this season to 4.09 per nine from 2.19 last season, but last year might end up being the outlier given his 3.62 career mark. Think Fernando Rodney and you might not be that far off.

You can do this deal. I don’t trust Matz to take the ball every five days, and even though his overall numbers are good, his effort has the feeling of one that is slowly circling the drain.

 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 8 PM EDT, on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 11 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).