THE VALUE OF SWIP

I write about SWIP every year, and I did so again this preseason in the 2016 Fantasy Alarm Draft Guide. What is SWIP? Pretty simple really, which is why I coined the term for it about five years ago.

Numerically speaking, the formula for SWIP works along the same lines as WHIP. SWIP is determined by the following equation.

S- Strikeouts (abbreviated as K)
W- Walks (abbreviated as BB)
IP- Innings Pitched

Strikeouts minus Walks divided by Innings Pitched equals SWIP.

SWIP = (K – BB) / IP

Though SWIP is recorded in the same manner as WHIP, the way to read the results is slightly different. Whereas the lower the WHIP the better one has performed, SWIP works in the opposite direction: the higher the SWIP the better (it should also be pointed out that there are some limitations to SWIP, chiefly that the metric favors pitchers with strikeout potential while often shortchanging those pitchers who might actually be “better” real world pitchers).

Here is a rough estimate of what the results mean to help you to put things in perspective; a key if you will. The key speaks more towards starting pitchers (relievers should all be at least at 0.50).

.90 and Up: Excellent season. Hall of Fame level.
.70 to .89: An all-star performance. Worthy of Cy Young consideration.
.50 to .69: Borderline all-star to decent starting pitcher. A guy you’d like to have on your staff.
.35 to .50: A guy who should be nothing more than the 3rd or 4th starter with his club.
.20 to .34: His major league days are likely numbered.
Below .20: Minor leaguer in training.

I always thought this was a smart, easy/simple way to evaluate pitchers. Simply put, strikeouts are good, walks are bad. End of astute analysis.

If you want to get more involved I welcome you to read a Hardball Times report that attempts to judge which measure is the best to use when judging in-season performance. If you take a look at SWIP (though they don’t call it that), SIERA, FIP, xFIP, tERA and ERA do you know which measure is the most likely to help, in terms of prediction, is SWIP. Right?

So, let’s get to it. There are 101 pitchers who currently qualify for the ERA title. Here are the SWIP leaders from that group.

Name

IP

K

BB

SWIP

Clayton Kershaw

62

77

4

1.18

David Price

48

65

13

1.08

Noah Syndergaard

46.33

55

9

0.99

Drew Smyly

44.67

52

8

0.99

Max Scherzer

52

66

15

0.98

Stephen Strasburg

49

58

12

0.94

Jose Fernandez

40.67

58

20

0.93

Aaron Nola

46

49

8

0.89

Taijuan Walker

37.67

38

6

0.85

Madison Bumgarner

49.67

60

18

0.85

Vincent Velasquez

43.33

49

13

0.83

Drew Pomeranz

40

51

19

0.80

Rich Hill

37.67

46

16

0.80

Steven Matz

34.67

35

8

0.78

Rick Porcello

46.33

46

10

0.78

Corey Kluber

45.67

45

10

0.77

John Lackey

48.33

47

10

0.77

Chris Archer

43.33

54

21

0.76

Ricky Nolasco

38.33

34

5

0.76

Johnny Cueto

57.67

53

10

0.75

Kershaw at the top, duh.

Check out Price with a massive number in SWIP. It’s one of the main reasons that I’ve been telling folks to buy on Price.

Syndergaard joined with Smyly in the third spot, just ahead of 20 K man Scherzer.

Fernandez is struggling on the surface, but a bit deeper look suggests really good things are coming.

Pomeranz and Hill with identical 0.80 marks. Fitting given that I wouldn’t suggest believe in either long-term.

Can Porcello hold on to his K-rate of better than one an inning? If he can, success will follow, but per usual with him, I’m dubious.

Nolasco, with a better mark than guys like Sale and Tanaka. Ricky always seems to be on the edge of success, but he can never sustain in.

Name

IP

K

BB

SWIP

Bartolo Colon

43.33

36

4

0.74

Chris Sale

50.33

47

10

0.74

Jaime Garcia

45.33

48

15

0.73

Danny Salazar

42.67

53

22

0.73

Michael Pineda

38.67

41

13

0.72

Jose Quintana

45.67

42

9

0.72

Jeremy Hellickson

36.67

37

11

0.71

Matt Moore

41

43

14

0.71

Nathan Eovaldi

42.67

40

10

0.70

Jon Lester

46

42

10

0.70

Masahiro Tanaka

46.33

39

7

0.69

Jerad Eickhoff

40.67

36

8

0.69

Kyle Hendricks

35.67

31

7

0.67

Nate Karns

34.67

38

15

0.66

Cole Hamels

42.67

45

17

0.66

Justin Verlander

41.67

42

15

0.65

Zack Greinke

49.67

44

12

0.64

Scott Kazmir

37.33

36

12

0.64

Jeff Samardzija

48.33

44

13

0.64

Jake Odorizzi

40.67

34

8

0.64

 

Colon doesn’t walk anyone.

Sale’s strikeout rate is way down, by plan.

Pineda never walks anyone, but he keeps getting blasted. Can he possibly be throwing too many strikes?

Hellickson – don’t believe in him. If you have at any time in the past you will know why I’m saying that.

Moore is struggling, at least that is what soooooooo many seem to think. SWIP says that he has performed better than Lester, Greinke, Tanaka etc. Perhaps it’s time you cut him some slack?

 

Some SWIP stragglers under the league average. These are men to keep a close eye on as danger might lurk ahead.

Carlos Martinez (0.50) – After striking out 9.22 batters per nine last season his K-rate has caved through six starts down to 7.11.

Aaron Sanchez (0.49) – The 7.74 K/9 rate is solid but the 3.38 BB/9 rate is elevated though slightly below his 3.69 career rate.

Marcus Stroman (0.46) – Despite all the stuff his K/9 rate was 6.00 last year and 6.59 this season (12 total starts both years). He mitigates the lack of punchouts with his 2.06 career BB/9 rate.

Jose Ross (0.45) – He’s lost more than a full batter per nine over six starts as the K/9 rate has dipped to a mere 6.88.  

Sonny Gray (0.41) – He is a total mess. His K/9 rate at 7.85 would be a 3-year high, but after walking 2.55 batters per nine last year the rate has exploded to 4.15 this season.

Dallas Keuchel (0.40) – I’m more a believer in his 7.56 K/9 rate this year than his 8.38 mark last season. Still, his 3.96 BB/9 rate is nearly a match for the total of 4.14 the last two years (2.16 and 1.98).

Jordan Zimmermann (0.35) – Where did the strikeouts go? The mark was 8.20 in 2014, then 7.32 in 2015 and it’s dropped all the way down to 5.25 this season.

Felix Hernandez (0.30) – I don’t know which is more concerning, the K/9 (6.80) or the BB/9 (4.12)? He’s still King Felix though and he’s been able to post a 2.27 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Pretty amazing.

Adam Wainwright (0.29) – He has a 6.80 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. After 3-straight years with a walk rate under 2.00 the number is up to 2.60 per nine this season and the strikeouts have vanished as he’s more than two full batters below his career rate at 5.20 per nine.

 

DFS DIAMONDS

*The following list of players are guys that Ray recommends as daily plays.

CATCHER: Wilson Ramos has a homer and a .525 wOBA the past week. Tom Koehler has allowed three homers his last four games and 25 in his last 37 starts.

FIRST BASE: Carlos Santana has hit just .194 in May, but he has two homers and a .444 SLG in the month. He takes on Ricky Nolasco who can be good or atrocious. This season, when a lefty is up, he’s allowed a .500 SLG (Santana has a .532 SLG versus righties).   

SECOND BASE: The last seven games Brandon Phillips has five homers, 10 RBI and six runs scored. Jeremy Hellickson has held righties to a .250 batting average but that .551 SLG is large and includes six homers.

THIRD BASE: Aaron Hill’s May has been sparkling (.375/.432/.650). He faces Christian Friedrich who has been destroyed by righties in his career (.325/.388/.457).

SHORTSTOP: Brandon Crawford has a .347 OBP and .458 SLG against righties. He faces the struggling Shelby Miller who has allowed lefties to bat .271 with a .421 OBP.   

OUTFIELD: Ben Revere has 10 hits in 22 at-bats against Tom Koehler, good for a .455 average. He’s also swiped five bases in the matchup. That should jump start the speedy outfielder.

OUTFIELD: Nori Aoki has been much better in May looking like the guy you expect with a .208 batting average and .391 OBP. Nick Tropeano has allowed lefties to bat .286 with a huge .410 OBP.

OUTFIELD: Jackie Bradley has a .500-4-15-6 line his last seven games. #Amazing Start him in the first start of the year by Lance McCullers.  

 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).