WHAT, ME WORRY ABOUT CHRIS SALE?

Chris Sale is 7-0 with a 1.79 ERA and 0.77 WHIP. Marvelous he has been. However, his SIERA (3.31) and xFIP (3.52) are well above his career marks of 2.82 and 2.93. Should there be some concern given that those advanced metrics suggest there should be some level of concern with the lefty?

Even if you don’t buy into the above, Sale has lost more than a mile and a half off his fastball velocity this season (92.9 mph) from last year (94.5) according to PITCHf/x data. Does that bother you a bit?

How about this one – does it bother you that Sale has gone from a two-year strikeout average of 11.34 K/9 all the way down to 8.40 batters per nine this season?

Nonsense or concerned are you?

First off, there is a plan afoot with Sale, and that means the strikeouts may not be coming back. Listen to Sale.

"That's probably the biggest part of my change, is not throwing every single pitch as hard as I can every inning, every out. I waste a lot of pitches doing that," Sale said. "You can throw 96, but if it's up, they are going to hit it. I'm starting to realize it's more location than it is speed and velocity. … When you are going through a game, there's no reason to throw a 0-0 pitch as hard as you can just because you gave up a hit before that. I don't care about strikeouts, what my ERA looks like.”

That’s great news for the "pitcher" Sale. It’s not necessarily so great news for his fantasy outlook.

We can all agree that his ratios are going up. Everyone knows that. Doesn’t matter since his career marks are an excellent 2.85 ERA and 1.06 WHIP.

Sale still isn’t walking anyone at 1.79 per nine, just a tick below his 1.81 from last season.

Sale has generated a 45.2 percent ground ball rate in the early going, right on his 44.6 percent career mark.

Really, there are only two things that stand out:

1 – Sale has a 0.54 HR/9 mark. His career rate is 0.86. The mark will go up this season as his 6.0 HR/FB ratio isn’t sustainable (10.7 career).

2 – Those strikeouts. Look, it’s not like 8.4 punchouts per nine won’t suffice, and I still think it’s very possible that when the season is over we will be talking about Sale with a strikeout per inning. But, that’s a lot different than the 11.34 K/9 mark he had last season. Practically speaking, the last two seasons Sale has averaged 241 strikeouts per season over 191.1 innings. If he were to keep his current K/9 rate of 8.40 that would result in 178 strikeouts over 191.1 innings. That would be the loss of 63 strikeouts. That’s like adding a whole other reliever to your pitching staff. That would be a significant down turn in the fantasy value for Sale. You read his own words as well. He has a new plan and it doesn’t include trying to jack up the punchouts, and why would he? Look at his current numbers which are fantastical. Why would he change.

Sale isn’t going to match his average K total from the last two years, and in fact he isn’t looking likely to match his four-year average either of .225 strikeouts a season. Other than that though, this guy is nails.

HITTING, A LOT

Some seem to have missed it, so here’s the Miguel Cabrera update. He’s still a hell of a hitter. Over his last 13 games he’s gone deep three times with a .389/.441/.630 slash line. You really didn’t doubt he would hit, did you?

Speaking of folks people were nervous about… hello Freddie Freeman. The Braves first sacker has a killer slash line of .386/.471/.682 over his last 12 games as he’s gone deep twice. I really don’t get why folks always seem to be doubting him.

Marcell Ozuna has four homers and a .630 SLG over his last 12 games. Even with his recent power surge Ozuna is still batting just .268 with a .317 OBP. Note that he posted marks of .259 and .308 last season. Ozuna hit 23 homers in 2014. He could match that mark again this season. Be cautious though. He has holes in his game. He still isn’t walking, just 38 over his last 152 games. His OBP in that time is also below the league average. That 1.43 GB/FB ratio would also seem to limit Ozuna to about 25 homers on the top end. A nice talent who is trending, but realize that at the top end he’s not much different than a guy like Jay Bruce.

Kevin Pillar is batting in the bottom third of the order for the Blue Jays. Everyone started bailing on him as a result. Hopefully you held on or added him when he became available. Over his last 12 games Piles has hit two homers and drive in seven runs while hitting .364 with a .404 OBP and .659 SLG. Yes, the man can hit. The only concern for me at the moment is that, after swiping 25 bags last season, Pillar has attempted only three steals over the course of 32 contests.

Mark Reynolds is batting .395 with a homer, six RBI and seven runs scored his last 11 games. Been a great start, but woes are coming. Reynolds has a 30.8 percent K-rate this season which is barely under his 31.6 career mark, and his 9.9 percent walk rate would be nine-year low. There’s also the matter of his .481 BABIP and 31.5 percent line drive rate. A solid NL-only option, but sell in mixed leagues.

The last 13 games Kyle Seager has gone deep four times with 10 RBI and eight runs scored. There’s no concern with Seager. You know what you’re getting from the 28-year-old.

DFS DIAMONDS

*The following list of players are guys that Ray recommends as daily plays.

CATCHER: Righties have bombarded Wily Peralta mercilessly this season to the tune of a .373/.427/.513 slash line. Murdering him they are. J.T. Realmuto has done a good job against righties this season with a .316/.321/.430 slash line and he’s batting .346 in May.

FIRST BASE: Mitch Moreland has been solid against righties this season (.272/.337/.457). He’s warming as well with two homers and hits in 9-of-10 games. He’s gone 5-for-13 against Miguel Gonzalez who is making his second start this season after a 2015 versus lefties with a .278/.343/.442 slash line.

SECOND BASE: Brandon Phillips has two hits in 3-of-5 games including a massive total of five home runs and nine RBI. Amazing really. He faces Jonathon Niese whom he’s hit .429 against with two homers over 21 at-bats.  

THIRD BASE: Derek Dietrich has gone 8-for-14 with a homer against Wily Peralta. DD has a hit in four-straight games this season and takers on Peralta who has been hit hard by lefties this season (.357/.418/.478).

SHORTSTOP: Troy Tulowitzki will be cheapish today. He’s gone .318/.423/.591 against Jake Peavy over 26 plate appearances. However, this is mostly about how hideous Peavy has been this season against righties (.333/.372/.608 with six homers allowed).

OUTFIELD: Austin Jackson has a hit in each of his last four games. During that time he’s scored four runs and walked three times. He takes on Colby Lewis who he has ripped up for a .382 batting average and .959 OPS over 36 plate appearances.   

OUTFIELD: Melky Cabrera is batting .393 with a .452 OBP in seven games in May. He’s also batting .320 with a .393 OBP against righties. Colby Lewis has let Melky go .375/.375/.688 over 16 plate appearances.

OUTFIELD: Clay Buchholz has allowed four hits in nine at-bats to Josh Reddick. The A’s outfielder has 12 hits his last four games and CB is awful against lefties (.328/.419/.446).

DAILY DIVE

Matt Harvey looks to be coming back to form for the Mets. Cesar Hernandez couldn’t buy a stolen base right now. Curt Casali is hitting bombs for the Rays. All of that in the Daily Dive.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).