2017 Fantasy Baseball SP Streamers: Week 2

So Week 1 was a bit rough for streamers, let’s not kid ourselves. It’s always tough basing predictions and projections off of spring training numbers (isn’t that right Greg Bird!), but you can’t dwell too much on the past. Week 2 is on the horizon with more streaming options featuring players still available after good Week 1 appearances.

10-12 Team Leagues

Kendall Graveman (OAK): Graveman is definitely a guy to keep an eye on for Week 2 because you may need to snag him early. He’s getting an April 8^th start against Texas and if it goes well his ownership may jump. In his career, Graveman is just a 5.5 K/9 pitcher who tallied 7 K’s in his last start against the Angels. He had only 2 starts all of last year where he had that many strikeouts. This may not be as fluky as it sounds. The velocity on Graveman’s fastball was up 2-3mph from a year ago. It’s a pitch he worked on over the past 12 months and it’s shown as it has steadily increased more and more. His fastball averaged about 94.7 mph in Week 1 compared to 91.1 mph in his first start last season. Now this is something that teams will eventually key in on and may adjust to especially because he used it 87.5% of the time on Monday. We’ll see how his 2^nd start goes and if he does well he’ll be an interesting candidate in Week 2 against a strong Houston lineup.

Brandon Finnegan (CIN): Finnegan is a guy who came on strong to finish 2016 and got off to a great 2017 start against Philadelphia. He finished 2016 with an improved changeup (that he threw 18-20% of the time), which really bumped his strikeout percentage and lowered his walk rate. Take a look at his numbers over his last 6 starts in 2016.

Similarly enough, in his first start against the Phillies Finnegan threw his changeup about one-fifth of the time and had similar results to how he ended 2016. He gave up 1 hit and 1 walk over 7 innings while striking out 9. Even better news? His next start comes against the Pirates who possess high strikeout potential. Add in the fact that PNC Park is pretty pitcher-friendly and this is a nice streaming matchup for Finnegan who is owned in less than half of all fantasy baseball leagues.

Bartolo Colon (ATL): It’s a mystery how he does it at his age (he’ll be 44 at the end of May), but he just continues to turn in quality starts. The Braves signed him to be an innings eater and he went 6 innings in his last start against the Mets and gave up 2 hits, 1 walk, and accumulated 6 strikeouts. The lone run came on a solo HR by Jay Bruce in the 5^th inning. Other than that, Colon stranded the other 2 runners. The strikeouts may not be there in his next start on the road against Miami. Colon still pitches to contact and had a .077 BABIP in his start Wednesday, which is wildly unsustainable. The Marlins have a decent lineup, but Marlins Park ranked in the bottom 5 in all of baseball in terms of runs and home runs last season. The strikeouts might come down, but he may give your team a quality start next week.

Ervin Santana (MIN): Santana is another pitcher who benefited greatly from a generous .056 BABIP, but didn’t see the strikeout results Colon did. Regression is obviously in line, but what is nice about Santana’s potential Week 2 start against the White Sox on April 15^th is that he gets a preview against them on April 9^th. So if you like what you see on Sunday feel free to stream him next Saturday. He is in more of a pitcher friendly park on Sunday so keep that in mind. His April 15^th appearance will be at home in Target Field where it was a Top 10 park in terms of run production in 2016.

Zack Wheeler (NYM): Wheeler is at the bottom of this list because he’s by far the riskiest player of the bunch. He went through a stretch without pitching in the majors in 2 years due to Tommy John surgery and then rehab setbacks plagued his 2016 return. But he still comes with some upside. He got knocked around to the tune of 5 runs over 4 innings of work Friday night. His fastball velocity started off well in the mid-90’s in the first innings. After that he seemed to lose a bit of speed and that’s when everything unraveled for him.  Still he had 4 strikeouts compared to 1 walk and the Phillies lineup presents a nice bounce back opportunity for him on Wednesday. It’s worth noting the Mets may have him on a pitch count again next Wednesday so if you’re worried about him not going late into the game then go with one of the guys listed above.

Deeper League Options

Charlie Morton (HOU): Morton is in line for two starts next week so in deeper leagues he might be worth stashing all of next week. He’s not a flashy name and he’s under 10% owned on most platforms so he’s widely available.  Morton, similar to Kendall Graveman, has seen an uptick in his velocity over the past couple seasons. It’s worth extending the research back a couple years because Morton tore his hamstring after 4 appearances in 2016.  Below is his fastball velocity from 2014-2016:

            2014: 91.1

            2015: 92.0

            2016: 94.3

Surely enough in his first start with Houston his fastball averaged 94.7 where he went 6 innings and gave up 2 earned runs. The strikeouts were modest; he only had 4 and he still gave up 5 hits with 2 walks. They aren’t lights out numbers, but in deeper leagues there’s little to complain about a guy who can go out there and get a quality start. His two starts next week are on the road against Seattle and Oakland.

Wily Peralta (MIL): Continuing with the theme of “fastball watch” in this week’s piece, Wily Peralta’s fastball averaged a staggering 96.5 mph and he was able to pound the strike zone with his slider. The one area of concern for Peralta is those 2 pitches made up about 93% of his arsenal in his last start against the Rockies. The start wasn’t in Coors, but Miller Park is still a hitter-friendly atmosphere and Peralta managed to shut the Rockies down. He’s well known for poor control and implosive outings, and he doesn’t have the greatest numbers against lefties.

Wily Peralta’s R/L Splits

The numbers against righties are still good, but they’re considerably worse against lefties. Peralta’s next start in Toronto is far from ideal, but if he can match his success against righties like he did against Colorado then he might be able to contain hitters like Devon Travis, Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, and Troy Tulowitzki. The matchup could force John Gibbons to go lefty heavy, but Toronto doesn’t have many great lefty bats. Peralta is also scheduled for a Sunday April 16^th matchup against Cincinnati so he may be worth hanging on to if he bodes well against Toronto.

Tyler Chatwood (COL): Chatwood is a 2-start pitcher next week and it’s worth clarifying he’s not in this piece for his 1^st matchup. It’s at home against the Padres. Yes, the Padres lineup isn’t stacked but Chatwood’s home/road splits from last season are an eyesore.

So Chatwood is a big victim of Coors Field and to be fair his FIP in comparison to his ERA’s was 4.97 at home and 3.70 on the road. So he may have been the benefactor of a little luck on the road, but it’s still pretty clear that he got rocked consistently at home. His first start next week comes at home against the Padres. His second start comes on the road against San Francisco, which is a park that doesn’t tend to give up HR’s as often as Coors. For Chatwood, who pitches to contact, this is slightly more advantageous.