One of the perils of doing so many mock drafts is you tend to get stuck on certain players. While you might be changing up your strategy from draft to draft, you can still find yourself gravitating towards players you like. It’s not the worst thing in the world, but often times we tend to elevate the value of our favorites and, out of fear of losing them to your league mates, tend to draft them a little earlier than where they really should be taken.

One of the mock draft strategies I’ve preached is to do a few drafts without taking a single player you are targeting come the big day. It allows you to see where your favorite players may actually fall to and if you are actually reaching without even realizing it. That way, come your real draft, you have a much better assessment as to when you want to target those favorites. Usually it works, but for me, there are times when I look at the board and feel like I’m doing a disservice by taking someone who I don’t even like.

In an effort to counter the muscle memory that has me leaning towards my guys, there are times I just sit out a draft and watch from the Commissioner’s chair. Today’s draft analysis is for one of those drafts.

The following draft took place Thursday, March 2 at 10pm ET

12 teams, 5x5 standard roto scoring

22 starters – C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, 5 OF, UT, 9 P

2 reserves

Industry Participants:

Joe Gallina (RotoExperts), Greg Jewett (FanRag Sports), Ron Rigney (Big Guy Fantasy Sports)

Link to Draft Board

Round 1

No surprises here at all. All 12 players have consistently gone in the first round of most drafts, though Miguel Cabrera is the only one with an ADP higher than 12 (14.47). I’ve seen him drop as low as 21, but that’s a rarity as he usually sits in the tail end of the first round in 12 and 15-team leagues.

Round 2

Trea Turner is still a reach for me here at 2.1, but I’ve been preaching that for a while and it still falls on deaf ears. If all of you out there really believe he’s stealing 70 bases, good luck. I don’t. Jonathan Villar was the bookend to Turner in this round and he’s another guy I believe is being over-drafted this season. The rest of the round went as expected, though it’s worth noting that Max Scherzer was still on the board at the end of it despite seeing Madison Bumgarner, Noah Syndergaard and Chris Sale all drafted.

Round 3

With four starters off the board through the first two rounds, you knew this round would see a few more come off. Gas House Gorillas doubled up on starters with Corey Kluber after taking Syndergaard in the second while Scherzer, Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester all followed. The surprise pick for me in this round was John C’s selection of Christian Yelich at 3.7 (31st overall). I absolutely love Yelich as a player and, despite his horrible fly-ball rate, I do believe he can maintain most of the power increase he showed last season. But Yelich’s ADP in the Army is at 50.32 (58.24 in the NFBC) which, to me, means John is a big fan and had little faith in Yelich making it back to him. Can’t really fault him though as I’ve always said if you really like a guy and you’re concerned you won’t get him, there’s nothing wrong with a small reach – a round, maybe two at the most. It’s also worth noting that of the six outfielders who came off the board between John’s picks, George Springer is probably the only one I really like over Yelich.

Round 4

This was a big round for outfielders as six in total came off the board bringing the total number of outfielders taken to 15. That’s 31.3% of the total number of picks and if you look at the overall ADP numbers, that percentage is accurate and you should definitely keep that in mind when setting up your strategy and targets. Through four rounds, we’ve got three teams – Gas House Gorillas, Jason and Joe Gallina – with zero outfielders, so once this draft is over, we’ll have to see what their outfields end up looking like.

Round 5

The first of the catchers came off the board here and, believe it or not, Buster Posey was not one of them. Gary Sanchez came off at 5.3 (51st overall) and Jonathan Lucroy at 5.12 (59th). I don’t mind the Lucroy pick if you firmly believe that Posey’s decline will continue this season, but I still can’t get behind Sanchez here, especially in a one-catcher league. Sorry, folks, but just like I won’t reach for Trea Turner after his big half-season, I won’t reach for Sanchez because I’m not going to subscribe to the belief that you can simply extrapolate his 2016 numbers over a full season and expect a 35-40 home run season. On a separate note, four second basemen off the board here bringing the total drafted to eight and guess what…? There’s still plenty of depth left at the position.

Round 6

Joe Gallina grabs his first outfielder in Gregory Polanco and five more starting pitchers come off the board. That’s 18 starters gone through six rounds which comes to exactly 25% of the total picks to this point. Again, that number is comparable to the ADP in the Mock Draft Army. The numbers are slightly higher in the NFBC, but that’s most likely due to the no-trading policy of that format. Also note that the first two closers – Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen – came off the board this round.

Round 7

Three more closers off the board but it’s Alex Bregman who comes off the board and catches my eye. There’s been a little talk this spring about him playing some shortstop which would certainly add to his value, but I’m just not seeing the breakout campaign this season. He’s got a great skill-set, but he’s only 22 years old and could use a little more Triple-A seasoning, in my opinion. I understand the third base position gets thin pretty quickly, but with Evan Longoria, Todd Frazier and Justin Turner still on the board, I would have gone in a different direction. Gas House Gorillas and Jason finally dip their toes into the outfield pool as they grab Kyle Schwarber and Mark Trumbo respectively.

Round 8

Starting pitching has been trickling off the board throughout this entire draft and as the position players get taken, it’s more a matter of need rather than best player available. Seeing Billy Hamilton slip all the way down to the eighth round is a bit surprising considering how early he’s been going, but the Army definitely seems to be backing off on him. He went from being a fourth-round pick to now a sixth-rounder, so it will be interesting to see if he falls any further.

Round 9

And right on cue, Andrew Benintendi comes off the board. Stephan is putting a lot of faith into upside for his outfield as the Red Sox rookie is his No. 3 guy right behind David Dahl who is currently dealing with a back injury and is also the subject of some platoon talk in Colorado. The team doled out a three-year, $26M deal to Gerardo Parra last year and they’re going to want to get their money’s worth.

Round 10

Some really strong names in this group, including a favorite of mine in Jason Kipnis. I’m going to have to watch where he falls a little closer and continue to stop taking him as this fall was unexpected. His 79.42 ADP has him coming off the board in the sixth round of a 12-team draft. If he is truly falling this far, I’ll happily readjust some of my draft plans, but a few more mocks will tell me if this is the trend or just an aberration.

Rounds 11 & 12

Closer Central here as eight come off the board in these two rounds. Nine had come off the board between rounds six and 10, so this explosion seems pretty understandable. What I don’t like is the selection of Andrew Miller in the 11th round. He is not the closer for the Tribe and Terry Francona has stated multiple times that he likes to use Miller’s lefty arm in shut-down situations in the sixth, seventh and eighth innings. Yes, Cody Allen can have his ups and downs, but if Tito wasn’t yanking him last year, what makes you think he will this season? Dellin Betances in the 17th round is where I would go if looking for a strong middle reliever.

The rest of the draft is, again, more about specific positional needs, so while we’ll pay attention to the ADP of a number of players, for the duration of this write-up, I’ll just highlight my favorite player from each of the next several rounds.

Round 13

Troy Tulowitzki (147th overall) – At this point in the draft I have no issue taking a shot on Tulo. When healthy, he’s the best-hitting shortstop in the game. If he does get hurt or doesn’t pan out, the middle infield is still rich with talent even beyond this draft.

Round 14

Jay Bruce (162nd overall) – We’ve got plenty of guys who can hit home runs and have a crappy average, yet so many of them have gone ahead of Bruce. Significantly earlier, in fact. If I can get close to 30 home runs this late, I’ll be a happy guy.

Round 15

Hunter Renfroe (179th overall) – Love his upside and I love the fact that the Padres said they were going to stick with their kids. He’s got some plate discipline improvements to make, but he could be a nice 20-homer bat this year.

Round 16

Brad Miller (185th overall) – While I don’t think he’ll bang 30 home runs this season, 20 is still well within reach and that multi-position eligibility is so damn sweet.

Round 17

It’s a tie between Manny Margot (195th) and Aaron Nola (196th) here. I’m definitely siding with Ray Flowers on the Nola breakout, but I also love the speed Margot has and will put on display this year.

Round 18

Matt Moore (214th overall) – Tough decision here, but Moore’s second half last season shows me the Tommy John surgery was a rousing success and the rehab is long behind him. I’ll throw an honorable mention to the upside of both Sonny Gray and Robbie Ray though.

Round 19

Matt Wieters (223rd overall) – I’m a believer and think he’ll have a very successful campaign in Washington. The ballpark plays more neutral than Camden Yards does, but that won’t hurt his overall value.

Round 20

Jung-Ho Kang (231st overall) – A suspended sentence in Korea and Kang is heading back to Pirates camp with a month left in spring training. Barring any suspension from MLB, he’ll be ready for Opening Day and provides a great bat for your infield.

Round 21

Jedd Gyorko (244th overall) – He’s just like Brad Miller to me but in a better lineup. Won’t hit 30 home runs again, but the multi-position eligibility makes for a phenomenal play in leagues with daily roster moves.

Round 22

Yulieski Gurriel (253rd overall) – I almost went with Greg Bird here, but Gurriel should stay this low in drafts while Bird’s HR binge this spring is already pushing his ADP up. Gurriel has strong upside for power and I’m not scared off by his age. At 32 years old, he’s mature enough to make this jump.

Round 23

Shelby Miller (269th overall) – It was a mechanics issue last season and he spent the entire offseason working out the kinks. I smell a bounce-back coming.

Round 24 

Luke Weaver (278th overall) – He’s my choice to win that fifth starter’s job in St. Louis and am looking forward to seeing him take another step forward in performance this year.

Complete Mock Draft Army ADP