2023 Player Outlook
2023 Recap: Let us acknowledge that the Mitch Keller breakout finally happened. Across a career high 194.1 IP and 32 starts, he posted a 13-9 record with a 4.21 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 210 total strikeouts. Keller was one of just eight pitchers last year to record at least 190 innings pitched with 200 or more total strikeouts. His numbers fell off after the All-Star break, and perhaps some fatigue caught up to him, as his velocity trended down as the year went on. Left-handed hitters still gave him some fits, so that will be another stat to watch heading into 2024, though I'd love to see him use his changeup low and away (arm-side) to left-handed hitters to try to help neutralize them a bit.
2024 Outlook: There's some intrigue with the Pittsburgh offense, but the offense is a bit top-heavy, so 12-14 wins seems likely yet again for Keller. There's some risk with Keller, since we've really only seen one dominant half of a season in his career, but with him being drafted outside the top 40 starters, some risk/regression seems to already be baked into his price.