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2023 Player Outlook

2023 Recap: After hitting .271 with 14 home runs and 23 stolen bases last year, Estrada now has back-to-back seasons with 10+ home runs and 20+ stolen bases. In fact, he hit those marks in 20 fewer games than in 2022! His average exit velocity is subpar, but he makes a lot of contact, especially in the zone. When looking at some his plate discipline metrics, it seemed like his increased propensity to leave the zone finally caught up to him last year, as the combination of a 10.4 percent swinging strike rate and 40 percent O-Swing rate played a sizable part in his strikeout rate jumping to 22.6 percent. However, after missing about a month in July, he posted a 20 percent strikeout rate over his final 215 plate appearances of the year, which was an improvement from his 24.4 percent strikeout rate prior to the trip to the IL. 

2024 Outlook: In 2024, there are some questions around the Giants offense as a whole and how Estrada's counting stats will look, but he runs a good bit, and I don't expect that to change. He'll run into enough balls to give fantasy managers anywhere from 12-18 home runs in 2024, and if he can stay healthy, he'll steal 25+ bags this season. Estrada has eligibility at second and short in most leagues, and he has the makings to be a top-eight fantasy player at second base this season, despite being drafted outside the top 12 at the position.

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