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2023 Player Outlook

For the second time in his career, Mikolas surpassed the 200-inning threshold in 2022, making him one of just eight pitchers to do so last year. In fact, only Sandy Alcantara (228.2 IP) and Aaron Nola (205 IP) logged more innings than the St. Louis right-hander last season. Mikolas logged a 3.29 ERA last season, though his career low .249 BABIP, 3.89 xERA, and 3.87 FIP point to signs of regression in terms of ERA in 2023. He doesn’t strike batters out, and he doesn’t really miss bats, so the new shift rules may affect a pitch-to-contact guy like him a bit more than others who were more swing-and-miss in their game. However, Mikolas has 180+ IP in three of his last four seasons, and his pristine command isn’t going away. You’ll need to be cognizant of his dearth of strikeouts and prepare your fantasy team otherwise, but 190+ IP with a sub-4.00 ERA and sub-1.25 WHIP is very valuable outside of the top 90 pitchers being drafted, even with his lack of strikeouts.