UFC Fight Night DFS Picks: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov Cheat Sheet, 8/3

Tap into UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov happening this Saturday in Abu Dhabi. The Prelims start at 12:00PM EST on ESPN2, followed by the Main Card at 3:00PM EST on ABC/ESPN+. 

The Main Event features Cory Sandhagen taking on Umar Nurmagomedov, with the co-main event showcasing Shara “Bullet” Magomedov and Michal Oleksiejczuk. For the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns, check out the fight card below.

Feel free to reach out to me on Discord or Twitter/X at @MikeIannoneDFS. Let's take a look at some top UFC DFS picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your UFC Fight Night daily fantasy lineups!

DFS Picks, Playbook & DraftKings UFC Lineup Advice: UFC Fight Night, Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov

Main Event

We get two of the best 135 lb. fighters in the world facing off this week at the top of the card. Cory Sandhagen has been a staple of the division for a while but has failed anytime he gets close to a title. Umar is looking to use his power wrestling to get his first win in the top 15 of the division. This is a major step up for Umar but even though Sandhagen has been working on his wrestling as he has shown by using it to dominate Rob Font, he is still a liability defensively. I think Umar gets the takedowns whenever he wants them, but while it is standing Cory is going to be the better striker. I'm leaning towards Umar winning a decision where he'll need a similar game plan to Belal last week, so his ceiling is extremely high. I'll put one of these guys into my lineup because whoever wins this fight is going to score extremely well.

Expensive Fighters

I think the line is too wide, but Chiesa is going to wrestle, and Tony has been struggling to get off his back in any of his recent fights. Chiesa is extremely low volume, but I expect him to have 10+ minutes of control time if this fight goes the distance so that will help his scoring. Chiesa has repeatedly been subbed via D'Arce Choke and that is one of Tony's go to submissions so him getting subbed wouldn't shock me, but with so many unknowns on this week's card I'm going to lean on someone we have seen in the octagon a ton. I would prefer Umar over him head's up even at the $300 discount.

Yahya is not a UFC caliber fighter, especially when it comes to wrestling so I think Fernandes should be able to win this fight wherever it goes. He had a tough debut against a veteran in Diakiese, but I think that this fight plays out completely differently and Fernandes should be able to get his kicks going.

He was just a favorite over Jairzinho Rozenstruik and now is taking a major step back in competition. In Round 1 he should be able to dominate this fight and I think he gets the finish, but my only concern is his cardio falls off of a cliff so if we see Round 3, I'm nervous that he'll be the better fighter at that point.

Shara still struggles with wrestling, but he hopefully shouldn't have to worry about that. Mikey O has about 7 minutes of cardio before he completely falls off of a cliff. My concern is that if Mikey O does try to wrestle Shara might get stuck on his back for the rest of the round and not put up many points, but if he stays standing Shara dominates him which is what I'm banking on.

If you like to bet on fighters with a high fight IQ, this is not your guy. He has a better ground game, he is more athletic, but do I have any faith in him to actually use his wrestler? No. He should win this fight, he should dominate it on the ground and if he does, he scores extremely well but there is something about Dumas that I just don't trust him to take the path of least resistance.

Mid-Range Fighters

The Mid-Range this week has a lot of low volume fighters, but all of them throw heat and could KO their opponent. Menifield has shown that he can be out-volumed and is willing to trade in the pocket. Azamat is first round or bust in terms of DK scoring at his price so don't expect him to come out here and put up 150 strikes, but if he lands early, he can KO Menifield.

This fight should be fireworks and I'm not confident in who wins it, but I do think the winner scores well. Alvarez is a size bully, and he is going to press forward and try to clinch up Brener or land massive kicks from the outside. If he wins it'll be in dominating fashion, but if he doesn't get the first-round finish, he could be in trouble as he slows down and Brener only gets stronger as the fight goes on.

Dern has the better grappling, and Loopy is someone who can struggle at times when she can't wrestle and, in this matchup, she won't want to. Godinez hasn't fared well when she takes a step up in competition and I think this is going to be another example of that.

Vera is going to drop round 1, but he is someone who gets stronger the longer the fight goes. He doesn't have five rounds to work with this time, but I don't love much of the mid-range so I'm taking more dog shots than normal, and I think he can win the second and third rounds.

If Brener wins this fight it is going to be by having success late, at his price even in a decision win he should score 70-80 pts and that might be enough to get him to the optimal lineup, I do think he has a good chance at finding a Round 3 finish though.

Sam is tough to finish and has the better cardio in the matchup. She has the wrestling advantage and of the two I think is more likely to score well on DK because of her control time and wrestling. She is the rightful dog, but she is a better DK play than Dudakova.

Herbert has power, but at his price he isn't going to be owned. Bedoya throws a ton of volume, but I've been trying to avoid fighters who "look good in loses" and that is exactly what Bedoya has shown to be. Herbert has gone toe to toe with Topuria before so he isn't going to be overwhelmed by volume, my only concern is in a decision win I could see him scoring under 75 pts.

Paydown Fighters

He has a rare height advantage, and he has power to KO anyone when he lands clean. Murzakanov has had some lackluster fights in the UFC and if he doesn't show up, I think Menifield KO's him in the first round.

He needs to survive the early swarm of Kutateladze but if he does, he should be able to take over in Round 2/3 when he is gassed out. It is a tough ask for someone making their debut, but he has a high ceiling for his price.

Mikey O is always a high ceiling low floor play and that doesn't change here. He either finds the KO within the first 7 minutes or he gets absolutely destroyed later on.

His volume is great, but I think Herbert is too technical for him. He should be popular at +114 for only $7,600 which is making me want to fade him in single entry contests.

If Dumas doesn't wrestle this fight might be close. Tiuliulin has power and in a kickboxing match this would be closer to a pick'em so you could do way worse than $7,300 for those odds.

He probably won't be highly owned, and his only path to victory is a submission win so if he gets the win (probably 15% of the time) he is going to hit the optimal lineup at his price. It's tough to back Tony this late in his career, but he still has the dog in him to continue trying to fight even after getting destroyed early on.

Mayes is someone who needs to stay at range to win a fight and Gaziev is going to look to crash forward. I don't think Mayes is good enough to keep Gaziev off of him but if he does get an early takedown and wears down Gaziev he could win this fight.

I have no faith in Yahya as a one-dimensional striker, facing a better striker. I guess he could catch Kaue with something but I'm not banking on it.

Sample UFC DFS Fight Night Lineup

Live Dogs

• Sandhagen, Vera, Brener, Hughes

Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov UFC Fight Night Picks & Stats