UFC Fight Night DFS Picks & Lineups: Ulberg vs. Reyes Cheat Sheet, 9/27

Published: Sep 26, 2025

Updated: Sep 26, 2025

UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs Reyes takes place this Saturday, live from Perth, Australia. The card kicks off with the Prelims at 7:00PM EST on ESPN+, followed by the Main Card at 10:00 PM on ESPN+ PPV. The Main Event features Carlos Ulberg looking to take his next step towards a title shot, but Dominic Reyes is looking to make another run at the title himself. Both of these men are powerful strikers who could finish this fight on a minute’s notice.

Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below, and always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on Twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!

MMA DFS Playbook for Fight Night: Ulberg vs Reyes

Main Event
Fighter(s)	Price	Opponent	Risk	Odds	ITD
Carlos Ulberg vs Dominic Reyes	$9300/$6900	-	Stackability: Low	195/ -235	-160/320.
Another main event with serious title implications as two of the top contenders face off in Carlos Ulberg and Dominic Reyes. Reyes is one of the few men who has a case for beating Jon Jones, having lost an extremely close fight. Reyes went on a skid after that, most notably let down by his chin but after sometimes off he seems revitalized. Ulberg is a volume striker, but his gas tank can come into question if he really has to push a pace. I favor Reyes to take over this fight late, as long as he can get there.

Expensive Fighters

Expensive
Fighter(s)	Price	Opponent	Risk	Odds	ITD
Jake Matthews	9600	Neil Magny	Somewhat-Safe	-400	130.
The pay-up range is a lot of local Australian fighters on this card and some of them aren't very trustworthy. Matthews has all the talent to dominate Magny, especially just controlling him against the cage or taking him down but Matthews sometimes fights horrible game plans. He has a high ceiling, and enough talent to make him my top pick.
Alexia Thainara	9200	Loma Lookboonmee	Somewhat-Safe	-265	650.
Thainara is strong and has good BJJ. She should look to get this fight to the ground and even if she doesn’t, she may just be able to win this fight based off of volume. I don't want to be overly high on her, but she should be able to dominate this fight wherever it goes. I expect an early submission.
Michelle Montague	9000	Luana Carolina	Somewhat-Safe	-260	320.
Montague is coming down from 145lbs in the PFL, Carolina is moving up to 135lbs after missing weight at 125lbs a few times. Size advantages are really helpful, especially for someone like Montague who is going to look to get the fight to the ground. She should be able to get takedowns here and it should be fairly easy. Carolina has been taken down in almost every one of her UFC fights so Montague should be able to set up on the ground. I don't know if there will be a finish but the wrestling upside could still score well.
Navajo Stirling	9100	Rodolfo Bellato	Moderate	-260	100.
Stirling isn't great, but part of that is he is still coming into his own as he doesn't even have 10 professional fights yet. He is a better striker, and a better wrestler. He just needs to avoid the mistakes that young fighters make, like getting too aggressive and he should be able to win this fight.
Jimmy Crute	8900	Ivan Erslan	Moderate	-215	185.
Crute is another untrustworthy fighter, but he can definitely win this fight, especially early. He can wrestle, he can strike, he has more power than Ivan. If he doesn't gas himself out too quickly, he should be able to win this fight fairly easily.

Mid-Range Fighters

Mid-Range
Fighter(s)	Price	Opponent	Risk	Odds	ITD
Justin Tafa	8400	Louie Sutherland	Moderate	-120	140.
This fight is going to give someone a big score. Sutherland has some pictures floating around that make it look like his "supplements" haven't been available since he joined the UFC. Tafa just runs into the middle and causes chaos, this isn't a safe pick, but someone in this fight should score well.
Jamie Mullarkey	8000	Rolando Bedoya	Moderate	-115	330.
I like Mullarkey as a dog this week. He has a wrestling advantage and his one downfall has been his chin recently but Bedoya isn't a power puncher. He has huge upside if he can get 3+ takedowns and a late finish.
Andre Petroski	8500	Cameron Rowston	Somewhat-Risky	-178	225.
Petroski is another wrestler who is questionable in every other aspect. He is EXTREMLY low volume so if the takedowns aren't there, he can score 50 in a win. I probably won't play him but he is decent odds value.
Charlie Campbell	7600	Tom Nolan	Somewhat-Risky	126	250.
I'm a big Charlie Campbell fan, but both of these men have suspect chins so it's tough to trust either in this fight. Nolan has been dropped in almost all of his recent fights, so if Campbell lands clean early, he should score a ton of points. This is a GPP play, not for cash games.
Colby Thicknesse	7500	Josias Musasa	Somewhat-Risky	128	250.
There are a lot of low-priced fighters this week so I'm expanding my Mid-Range a little this week. Thicknesse is +128 at $7500 so he'll probably be highly owned but I think he should be favorite here. He is Alex Volkanovski's main training partner, and Musasa has looked horrible in his UFC debut and contender series fights. If this isn't a quick KO for Josias, I think Thicknesse runs away with this fight.
Louie Sutherland	7800	Justin Tafa	Somewhat-Risky	#N/A	#N/A
This fight will be chaos, I think if someone were to win a decision it would be Sutherland. Either of these guys can get KO'd.
Cameron Rowston	7700	Andre Petroski	Risky	#N/A	#N/A
Rowston can wrestle a little bit so this shouldn't be one way traffic but I think he is in a little too deep of waters here. Petroski has fought a ton of top 20-25 fighters on the UFC roster and Rowston is just on the fringe of making it to the roster.

Paydown Fighters

Pay-Downs
Fighter(s)	Price	Opponent	Risk	Odds	ITD
Elisha Ellison	7400	Brando Pericic	Somewhat-Risky	164	275.
This is another low-level fight that is just going to be chaos. Both of these men have only a handful of fights on their resume and it is against low level opponents (these fighters combine for only 11 professional fights). I won't be surprised if someone in this fight gets an early KO, but I don't have much confidence on who it will be so I'm going with the underdog.
Ivan Erslan	7300	Jimmy Crute	Somewhat-Risky	164	500.
Crute is known to fade late in fights so if Ivan can survive the early onslaught he has a chance here. I don't love his fighting style as he seems extremely low volume and susceptible to takedowns, but at his price he makes for a fine play.
Luana Carolina	7200	Michelle Montague	Risky	196	150.
If this fight stays standing Carolina has a clear path to victory, but she has to keep it standing. At least for a big underdog she has some advantages, which is more than we can say about others in this price range.
Rodolfo Bellato	7100	Navajo Stirling	Risky	196	380.
Bellato has more experience and more volume than Stirling but he doesn't hit very hard. I probably won't be playing much Bellato this week, but unlike most big men, Stirling is someone who has shown he can end a fight with a great third round so Bellato better get his wrestling going early.
Ramon Taveras	6800	Jack Jenkins	Risky	#N/A	#N/A
He isn't very physical, and he will likely be just a step behind everywhere. Jenkins is the hometown fighter too so he'll be looking to put on a show for the crowd.
Loma Lookboonmee	7000	Alexia Thainara	Risky	120	150.
She is a low volume striker, who doesn't wrestle at a high level or have KO power. I don't think she wins this fight anywhere, I'll be fading her.
Neil Magny	6600	Jake Matthews	Risky	285	650.
Magny is getting older and slower every fight; it is to the point where he is eventually going to take a brutal KO and I could see that happening here.

Sample Lineup

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Live Dogs

Reyes, Campbell, Mullarkey, Thicknesse

Picks and Stats


Carlos Ulberg	vs	Dominick Reyes
$9,300	DFS Salary	$6,900
Record: 13-1-0	Record	Record: 15-4-0
7	Knockouts	10
1	Subs	2
-235	Vegas Odds	+195

Jimmy Crute	vs	Ivan Erslan
$8,900	DFS Salary	$7,300
Record: 13-4-2	Record	Record: 14-5-0 (1 NC)
5	Knockouts	10
5	Subs	1
-215	Vegas Odds	+164

Jack Jenkins	vs	Ramon Taveras
$9,400	DFS Salary	$6,800
Record: 13-4-0	Record	Record: 10-3-0
6	Knockouts	5
3	Subs	3
-295	Vegas Odds	220

Jake Matthews	vs	Neil Magny
$9,600	DFS Salary	#6,600
Record: 22-7-0	Record	Record: 30-13-0
5	Knockouts	9
9	Subs	4
-400	Vegas Odds	+385

Justin Tafa	vs	Louie Sutherland
$8,400	DFS Salary	$7,800
Record: 7-5-0 (1 NC)	Record	Record: 10-3-0
7	Knockouts	8
0	Subs	0
-120	Vegas Odds	-104
	0
Tom Nolan	vs	Charlie Campbell
$8,600	DFS Salary	$7,600
Record: 9-1-0	Record	Record: 9-2-0
5	Knockouts	6
0	Subs	0
-162	Vegas Odds	126

Navajo Stirling	vs	Rodolfo Bellato
$9,100	DFS Salary	$7,100
Record: 7-0-0	Record	Record: 12-2-1 (1 NC)
4	Knockouts	7
0	Subs	4
-260	Vegas Odds	196

Cam Rowston	vs	Andre Petroski
$7,700	DFS Salary	$8,500
Record: 12-3-0	Record	Record: 13-4-0
4	Knockouts	4
7	Subs	4
138	Vegas Odds	-178

Jamie Mullarkey	vs	Rolando Bedoya
$8,000	DFS Salary	$6,800
Record: 17-8-0	Record	Record: 14-4-0
10	Knockouts	4
3	Subs	3
-115	Vegas Odds	-111

Colby Thicknesse	vs	Josias Musasa
$7,500	DFS Salary	$8,700
Record: 7-1-0	Record	Record: 8-1-0
2	Knockouts	7
2	Subs	0
128	Vegas Odds	-162

Michelle Montague	vs	Luana Carolina
$9,000	DFS Salary	$7,200
Record: 6-0-0	Record	Record: 11-4-0
0	Knockouts	3
6	Subs	1
-260	Vegas Odds	196

Brando Pericic	vs	Elisha Ellison
$8,800	DFS Salary	$7,400
Record: 4-1-0	Record	Record: 5-1-0
4	Knockouts	4
0	Subs	1
-215	Vegas Odds	164

Loma Lookboonmee	vs	Alexia Thainara
$7,000	DFS Salary	$9,200
Record: 10-3-0	Record	Record: 12-1-0
1	Knockouts	0
1	Subs	8
+215	Vegas Odds	-265