UFC Fight Night DFS Picks & Lineups - Tybura vs. Spivac Cheat Sheet, 8/10

UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 takes place this Saturday live from The UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The card kicks off with the Prelims at 4:00 PM EST on ESPN/ESPN+, followed by the Main Card at 7:00 PM EST on ESPN/ESPN+.

The main event this week features a rematch at heavyweight between two veterans of the division in Marcin Tybura and Serghei Spivac. The co-main event this week is between the action packed Chepe Mariscal and submission specialist Damon “The Leech” Jackson.

Explore the most recent UFC DFS picks, statistics, predictions and detailed matchup analyses for the complete fight card listed below. As always, you are welcome to connect with me on Discord or Twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS!

Now, let’s get into some of my top UFC Fight Night DFS picks and strategies for Saturday's event. Wishing you the best of luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!

DFS Picks, Playbook & DraftKings UFC Lineup Advice: UFC Fight Night, Tybura vs. Spivac 2

Main Event

A rematch of a main event from five years ago takes place this week at the top of the heavyweight division. Spivac was only 24 the first time they fought, which is extremely young for a heavyweight, so I expect this fight to play out much differently. In the first matchup Tybura was able to dominate with takedowns but since that fight he hasn't been as good with his wrestling, and Spivac has really started to excel at it. I still don't think Spivac is in his prime, but his wrestling should be too much for Tybura to overcome this week. This fight should end within the first two rounds and with both of them priced in the mid-range I'm confident that the winner ends up in the optimal lineup.

Expensive Fighters

Normally $8,800 fighters don't make the cut for "expensive”, but he has the best ITD of the slate and has close odds to the highest priced fighters. Grigoriou is the better striker and wrestler, but from what we have seen out of Kazama I expect Grigoriou to keep it standing. Kazama has been KO'd quickly multiple times so a few well-placed punches should be able to end this fight. Kazama has a decent submission game, but with Grigoriou training with Longo-Weidman and Matt Serra he should be seeing better submissions coming from some of his training partners like Aljo Sterling and Merab so there shouldn't be anything he hasn't seen before.

Barlow has a similar finishing prop to Grigoriou, and he has more power, but I don't think he lands nearly as much volume. With that said he did land close to 100 in his last fight, so it isn't like he lands no volume, but with his high price tag that won't be enough if he doesn't get a 1st or 2nd round finish. He's my most confident play on the card and is one of the favorites to be the highest scoring fighter on the card.

Zalal is probably the safest to win on the card, but sometimes he throws absolutely no volume and can kill his DK score. He is the far better wrestler in this matchup so he should be able to get it to the ground easily and dominate, but he doesn't always take the path of least resistance in his fights so I'm not banking on him shooting takedowns in bunches. In a decision he probably scores the best of the top three fighters in this range, but he doesn't have the one punch power of the other fighters, so he'll have to wear on Jarno over time and hopefully break him late in the second round.

Chepe is the much more well-rounded fighter, but he needs to stay off the ground against Jackson. Jackson has shown some durability concerns in the past, but it was against fighters like Dan Ige and Ilia Topuria, so this fight is at a much lower level. I don't think Chepe gets the finish here and without one this should be a striking battle, and he should be able to win it in over 15 minutes.

Williams should probably be higher on this list but of everyone in this range he is the most likely to get KO'd quickly and score under 10 pts. Williams has one of the highest ceilings on the slate because he doesn't get finishes, and over 15 minutes he will likely rack up 5+ takedowns and 8+ minutes of control time so even before he lands a single punch he'll be at 70dk pts in a decision. The top range is very close this week and I'm still going to have Williams in about 40% of my lineup so don't take me ranking him 5th here as saying he shouldn't be played.

Mid-Range Fighters

This is a weird fight since it is a rematch from the Contender Series, and it ended in a draw the first time. Luciano is getting better, and she is much younger than Alencar, and we saw that she could dominate the later this fight goes in their first matchup where she won the 3rd round 10-8. I actually have a bet on Alencar this week, but of the two fighters if one of them is going to score 100+ pts I think it is Luciano finding a finish once Alencar starts to slow down.

I hate when Santos fights because her fighting style is tough to watch, but she has started doing something that is scoring extremely well on DraftKings. Over her last four fights whenever she is taken down, she is landing short punches to her opponent at a rate of nearly 100 which are being scored as "strikes" (not significant strikes), so it is adding nearly 20pts onto her score the last few fights. Chandler is going to take her down and I wouldn't be surprised to see Santos end up with around 150 total strikes and in this mid-range if you aren't playing the main event that might be enough to get it done.

Rosa is another volume machine. I expect her to be higher owned than the first two fighters listed because of her odds to win, but she normally fights to her opponent’s level so this should be close. She landed over 200 significant strikes last time out and she should try to keep this fight standing again so she clearly has a ceiling, but she didn't even win that fight so she may change her game plan here to avoid taking too many shots in return. I don't love the mid-range this week because of how little finishing upside there is but the volume should be here in this fight.

The mid-range this week is only three fights outside of the main event so from here on down is just the other side of the fights for the first three women. Alencar is older, but she is a much better wrestler, and she knows she needs this fight on the ground if she wants it to be competitive. She has the upside because of her wrestling, but with a 59 inch reach she isn't going to be landing anything at range. If she wins the first two rounds again this week, I expect her to be trying to slow the pace because the wheels fell off the first time they fought because she pushed too hard for the finish.

Chandler is another underdog with wrestling upside, and I expect her to go to it immediately. Santos doesn't have good takedown defense and so this should end up on the ground at some point, but like I mentioned previously, Santos will not stop throwing short little punches and if Chandler isn't going to land damage the judges may not score it for her. The volume is all on the Santos side, Chandler should get a few takedowns and control the fight longer. This should be a very close decision but if Chandler wins it is probably because of 3+ takedowns and 8+ minutes of control time which should score well.

She has zero finishing ability so that is off the table. Rosa is going to push her pace and Pannie may be the cleaner striker of the two so she could win a kickboxing match here. She doesn't wrestle, she doesn't have the ability to finish opponents so I'm going to be looking elsewhere, especially with one of the next underdogs coming up.

Paydown Fighters

He's going from headlining a card, to fighting a UFC newcomer who was supposed to be on the Contender Series. He likely doesn't get the finish which would be a red flag for most -535 favorites, but with a late notice replacement he is only 7k. He's going to be in 90% of my lineups because even in a decision win, a score of 75+ might be enough for his price tag.

Diniz is a power puncher, and his upside is as high as any of the favorites, but he is going to struggle to keep the fight standing. If he lands clean, he probably wins this fight by KO and scores the most of any underdog.

I've always been a leach fan, and he has the advantage on the ground here if he can get it there. Chepe is a step down in competition from some of his recent fights so he could be able to take advantage of his inexperience. He has a high ceiling for this price range on a normal slate, but with Gutierrez and Diniz ahead of him he is a clear 3rd place for ceiling plays.

Veretennikov is going to have an uphill fight on his hands, but if he can survive until Round 3 Barlow might slow down. He is pretty much finish or bust, but at $6,900 he is worth a shot.

He doesn't have anything to lose so I expect him to come out in a kill or be killed fashion. I'm playing him in about 10% of my lineups (to go with my 90%) Gutierrez to lock in one win at under 7k in all my lineups so as long as not too many dogs win, I'll have the starting point to the optimal. He is going to be extremely low owned.

Errens is in a tough spot this week, Zalal has never been KO'd or submitted and since he's been in there with Ilia Topuria that speaks volumes. He doesn't have the upside, and with it being a weird week with Gutierrez only being $200 more expensive I'm going to avoid playing him as much as I can.

Sample UFC DFS Fight Night Lineup

Live Dogs

• Gutierrez, Tybura, Jackson, Diniz, Alencar

Tybura vs. Spivac UFC Fight Night Picks & Stats