UFC Qatar: Tsarukyan vs Hooker takes place this Saturday from Qatar. The card kicks off with the Prelims at 10:00 AM EST on ESPN+, followed by the Main Card at 1:00 PM on ESPN+ PPV.  This card features top title contenders facing off in the main event as Arman Tsarukyan takes on always entertaining Dan Hooker.  Dana White has hinted that the winner of this fight will be the next challenger for Ilia Topuria and the Lightweight Title, so the stakes are as high as they get when these two dangerous fighters face off this weekend.

Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below, and always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on Twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
 

 

 

MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs Hooker

Main Event

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Arman Tsarukyan vs Dan Hooker

#N/A

-

Stackability: Low

-600/ 420

-140/650.

This is going to be a great main event. Armen is a top wrestler and the true #1 contender in this division, with a win he all but assures his title opportunity. Dan Hooker is always in exciting fights; he throws with power and volume. On the feet this is going to be a really good fight but if Armen gets it down, he should dominate. I'll be playing Armen this week, but Hooker has upside because he'll have to KO Armen or throw a ton of volume to get the decision win.


 

Expensive Fighters

Expensive

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev

9800

Rafael Cerquiera

Somewhat-Safe

-1,100

+1,100 

Abdul has the best odds to win, huge odds to finish inside the distance, and is facing an opponent who has given up huge scores before. He should win this fight by KO fairly easily, and outside of the main even there is a huge drop off in the expensive fighters this week.
Saygid Izagakhmaev

9300

Nicolas Dalby

Somewhat-Safe

-350 

125. 

Dalby can be a tough out but one way to get to him is to take him down, and Saygid has some high-level grappling and a ton of submission wins. Saygid has a high ceiling with his takedowns, he just needs to avoid the early power of Dalby.
Myktybek Orolbai

9000

Jack Hermansson

Somewhat-Safe

-260 

+110 

This is a tough fight to figure out with Orolbai moving up a weight class. Orolbai at his best is lengthy and has good takedowns, but Hermansson is a tough test as he's a crafty veteran and has good wrestling as shown in his wrestling matchup with Chimaev. Whoever wins this fight probably hits a high ceiling, and with some other fighters in this range not having such high ceiling I'll put Orolbai this high even though I think the line is a little wide.
Volkan Oezdemir

8900

Alonzo Menifield

Moderate

-235 

100. 

Oezdemir is more well-rounded and has better cardio, he just has to be careful of the early power of Menifield. If this fight gets into Round 2, I expect Volkan to be able to double him up on strikes and probably find the finish.
Ian Machado Garry

8800

Belal Muhammad

Moderate

-265 

-175

I was hoping this would be a five round fight but it looks like it is only three. Garry should be able to stop the takedowns and keep it standing where he should have a big advantage. Belal's title run has aged terrible recently (Brady, Burns, Edwards, JDM) so I'll be interested to see if we overrated his wrestling for the past few years. Garry should be able to win this fight easily on the feet.



 

Mid-Range Fighters

Mid-Range

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Denzel Freeman

8600

Kyoji Horiguchi

Moderate

-215 

-140 

This is a tough click since both of these fighters have such little experience but Freeman has the cardio and wrestling to win at this weight class. He is good odds value so I expect him to get decently high ownership but with his ceiling he is still worth the click.
Aleksandre Topuria

8000

Bekzat Almakhan

Moderate

-142 

200. 

The rest of the mid-range is tough with some late notice replacements. Topuria is a tough matchup for the low volume Bekzat. Both of these men have power, but I think Topuria will do just a little bit more to get the win.
Ryan Loder

7700

Ismail Naurdiev

Somewhat-Risky

112 

240. 

Naurdiev will cheat his way through a fight, if need be, and he is dangerous early on but I expect Loder to be able to get takedowns to slow him down. Loder has vicious ground and pound so if he does get the takedowns don't expect him to just hold the position, he will look to finish the fight.
Tagir Ulanbekov

8600

Kyoji Horiguchi

Somewhat-Risky

-215 

300. 

Tagir probably should be a little higher up but Kyoji is a massive wild card making his UFC return. Tagir can get too passive in some fights and doesn't always stick to his wrestling. He has struggled when he makes moves up in competition, but when he fights his best, he can easily put up 100+ DraftKings points. You'll be able to tell early if Tagir is using his wrestling or if this is going to be a really close fight on the feet.
Shamil Gaziev

8400

Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Somewhat-Risky

118 

100. 

I'm putting Gaziev here but this is going to be a writeup for the whole fight since Waldo is taking this fight on 3 days’ notice. Waldo flew across the world, made weight, and now has to fight in a completely different time zone on short notice. Gaziev has power and while I would normally rate Waldo a -200 in this matchup, I wouldn't be surprised if Waldo looked out of place having just fought three weeks ago. This is a fight that shouldn't be happening, but Gaziev's power could be too much for Waldo to handle on short notice.
Kyoji Horiguchi

7600

Tagir Ulanbekov

Somewhat-Risky

172 

200

He is very high-level talent and could win this fight on the feet. I don't want to be overly invested into Kyoji making his UFC return in Qatar but he's someone I'm excited to see back in the mix. He is an elite round winner, with his downfall taking one too many big shots and getting finished but that isn't really Tagir's game.
Ismail Naurdiev

8500

Ryan Loder

Risky

-138 

180. 

He's a front runner, if he gets his game going early, he could win this fight in the first round, but I expect Loder to be able to wear him down. I'd rather the two $8600 fighters compared to him.



 

Paydown Fighters

Pay-Downs 

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Jack Hermansson

7200

Myktybek Orolbai

Somewhat-Risky

205 

800. 

Hermansson is coming down from 185lbs, Orolbai is moving up from 155lbs. Hermansson looked huge on the scales and Orolbai hasn't really had to deal with that before. I have bets in on Hermansson to win at +205, but I do understand if Orolbai holds him down he could lose this decision. 
Belal Muhammad

7400

Ian Machado Garry

Somewhat-Risky

210 

800. 

If Belal wins, he probably scores extremely well because I expect he would need 4+ takedowns to make this fight competitive. I don't think he wins but he has a ceiling and a path to it.
Shem Rock

#N/A

#N/A

Risky

225 

400. 

Rock is a submission specialist, and he's fighting a low volume wrestler so he can find himself in the world he wants to be in. The problem is he'll be off of his back, which I don't think is a good spot to be against "The Tajik Eagle" in Qatar because the judges won't be on his side in a close fight with the crowd cheering against him.
Alex Perez

7500

Asu Almabayev

Risky

-500 

400. 

Perez needs to keep the fight standing, and he has against everyone except for the highest level of fighters. I don't want to put too much stock in an aging fighter but he should be able to keep the fight close on the feet, and I think he is good enough to keep it standing for some long stretches.
Bogdan Grad

7100

Luke Riley

Risky

220 

450. 

Grad can throw volume and make this fight greasy with his wrestling as shown by his ability to get at least 3 takedowns in his last 3 fights, but he doesn't always react well when he gets hit. His control time on the ground needs work, but if Riley isn't able to figure out how to get back up Grad could win this fight with his wrestling or at least tire out Riley to make this fight a war.
Alonzo Menifield

7300

Volkan Oezdemir

Risky

186 

400. 

He has the power to KO almost anyone but he has to land. He uses muscle over technique so after the first 5 minutes he isn't the same fighter. He has the KO upside and at his price he could be worth a shot if you are entering multiple lineups.
Nicolas Dalby

6900

Saygid Izagakhmaev

Risky

265 

900. 

I don't want to play much Dalby this week, but his opponent has very little UFC experience. Dalby can make this a war if he drags Abdul into deep waters, he just needs to weather the early storm to have any chance here.

 

Sample Lineup

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Live Dogs

Hermansson, Loder, Topuria, Kyoji, Muhammad

Picks and Stats

   

Arman Tsarukyan

vs

Dan Hooker

$9,500

DFS Salary

$6,700

Record: 22-3-0

Record

Record: 24-12-0

9

Knockouts

11

5

Subs

7

-600

Vegas Odds

420

   

Belal Muhammad

vs

Ian Machado Garry

$7,400

DFS Salary

$8,800

Record: 24-4-0 (1 NC)

Record

Record: 16-1-0

5

Knockouts

7

1

Subs

1

210

Vegas Odds

-265

   

Volkan Oezdemir

vs

Alonzo Menifield

$8,900

DFS Salary

$7,300

Record: 20-8-0

Record

Record: 17-5-1

13

Knockouts

10

2

Subs

3

-235

Vegas Odds

186

   

Jack Hermansson

vs

Myktybek Orolbai

$7,200

DFS Salary

$9,000

Record: 24-9-0

Record

Record: 14-2-1

11

Knockouts

6

6

Subs

6

205

Vegas Odds

-260

   

Waldo Cortes Acosta

vs

Shamil Gaziev

$8,500

DFS Salary

$8,400

Record: 15-2-0

Record

Record: 14-1-0

7

Knockouts

9

1

Subs

3

-140

Vegas Odds

118

 

0

 

Tagir Ulanbekov

vs

Kyoji Horiguchi

$8,600

DFS Salary

$7,600

Record: 17-2-0

Record

Record: 34-5-0 (1 NC)

1

Knockouts

15

8

Subs

5

-215

Vegas Odds

172

   

Bogdan Grad

vs

Luke Riley

$7,100

DFS Salary

$9,100

Record: 15-3-0

Record

Record: 11-0-0

9

Knockouts

8

3

Subs

0

220

Vegas Odds

-280

   

Nicolas Dalby

vs

Saygid Izagakhmaev

$6,900

DFS Salary

$9,300

Record: 23-6-1 (2 NC)

Record

Record: 22-2-0

7

Knockouts

3

4

Subs

13

265

Vegas Odds

-350

   

Alex Perez

vs

Asu Almabayev

$7,500

DFS Salary

$8,700

Record: 25-9-0

Record

Record: 22-3-0

6

Knockouts

3

7

Subs

9

-500

Vegas Odds

-200

   

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev

vs

Rafael Cerquiera

$9,800

DFS Salary

$6,400

Record: 7-0-0

Record

Record: 11-3-0

3

Knockouts

8

3

Subs

2

-1,300

Vegas Odds

+700

   

Bekzat Almakhan

vs

Aleksandre Topuria

$8,200

DFS Salary

$8,000

Record: 12-2-0

Record

Record: 6-1-0

10

Knockouts

3

1

Subs

2

-125

Vegas Odds

+105

   

Ismail Naurdiev

vs

Ryan Loder

$8,500

DFS Salary

$7,700

Record: 24-8-0

Record

Record: 8-2-0

12

Knockouts

5

6

Subs

0

-138

Vegas Odds

112

   

Nurullo Aliev

vs

Shem Rock

$9,200

DFS Salary

$7,000

Record: 10-0-0

Record

Record: 12-1-1

2

Knockouts

2

0

Subs

8

-290

Vegas Odds

225

   

Marek Bujlo

vs

Denzel Freeman

$7,600

DFS Salary

$8,600

Record: 6-0-0

Record

Record: 6-1-0

4

Knockouts

4

2

Subs

1

172

Vegas Odds

-215

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