UFC Fight Night DFS Picks & Lineups: Strickland vs. Hernandez Cheat Sheet, 2/21
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs Hernandez takes place this Saturday from Houston, Texas. The card kicks off with the Prelims at 5:00 PM EST on Paramount+, followed by the Main Card at 8:00 PM on Paramount+. This is a massive matchup for the Middleweight division as former title holder Sean Strickland takes on Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez in a battle that could earn the winner the next shot at the title. As always, head on over to our DFS ownership page for full ownership breakdowns of these fights' MMA Ownership
Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below, and always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs Hernandez
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Sean Strickland vs Anthony Hernandez | 7100/9100 | - | Stackability: Low | 230/ -275 | / |
Both of these guys have a ton of cardio and look to use it to their advantage. Strickland is all jab and striking, while Hernandez looks to push the fight to the ground. Strickland was taken down 6 times by DDP in his first match up with him, but he was able to keep the fight standing most of the time. I think Hernandez is the rising prospect who is going to make a statement, but don't expect it to come until the later rounds. Strickland's striking is volume, with not much power behind it so I'm not as worried about a KO as I would be with other top-level heavyweights. Whoever wins is going to score 100+ on DraftKings so if I played ten lineups, I would keep both of them in my player pool, in my single entry I am going with Hernandez. | |||||
Expensive Fighters
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Yadier del Valle | 9400 | Jordan Leavitt | Somewhat-Safe | -420 | -160 |
Del Valle is going to be able to outmuscle Leavitt which is always Jordan's weakness. Del Valle should be able to land the more powerful strikes or get in better positions on the ground so he is comfortable anywhere this fight takes place. | |||||
Carli Judice | 9700 | Juliana Miller | Somewhat-Safe | -900 | -160 |
Judice throws a ton of volume, and Miller is one of the worst defensive strikers on the UFC roster. My only concern is unlike Yadier, she isn't comfortable everywhere so if Miller gets the fight to the ground this will be much closer than the line suggests. | |||||
Jacobe Smith | 9300 | Josiah Harrell | Somewhat-Safe | -310 | -105 |
Smith can wrestle and has a ton of power but this is a weird match up. Harrell is only 5'8 which is insanely small for the 170lb division so I'm banking on Jacobe to use his power to be able to win this fight. If this goes longer than 7.5 minutes, I do not trust Smith's cardio. | |||||
Joselyne Edwards | 9200 | Nora Cornolle | Moderate | -340 | +320 |
This is a weird rematch because Cornolle "won" the first fight in one of the worst decisions in UFC history. In the initial fight Edwards landed more takedowns, harder strikes, and generally just controlled the fight. Since that fight Edwards has been looking for the finish more and I expect her to really push for one here as she looks to get back the first loss. | |||||
Geoff Neal | 8700 | Uros Medic | Moderate | -230 | -145 |
This fight is going to be a high scoring one for DK as Medic is a kill or be killed fighter. Neal has been on a bit of a skid but it was against the top tier of the division, while Medic is beating some of the lowest levels of competition. I think Neal gets this done in the late first round or the early second. | |||||
Mid-Range Fighters
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Ante Delija | 8600 | Serghei Spivac | Moderate | -146 | 100 |
This is another high variance fight. Ante has power and way better striking, but Serghei has the wrestling advantage. Ante had a tough loss last time after he thought he KO'd Waldo Acosta but it was ruled an eye poke. This looks like a great match up for him to get back on track. | |||||
Chidi Njokuani | 8000 | Carlos Leal | Moderate | 112 | 140 |
This is another fight that is close to a tossup but I'm expecting an early KO. Chidi will take one to give one, and Leal likes to trade in the pocket as well. I'm expecting a high-level striking fight that doesn't make it out of Round 2 with Chidi having a little more well-rounded skillset. | |||||
Ramiz Brahimaj | 8300 | Punahele Soriano | Somewhat-Risky | -118 | 115 |
This is a tough fight to figure out. Brahimaj is a much better submission grappler, but Soriano is very powerful for the weight class so I'm not sure if he'll be able to put him down. I hate picking a fighter whose best skillset may not come into play, but his advantage there is so much bigger that he still makes a strong play because he could finish the fight early. | |||||
Michel Pereira | 8500 | Zach Reese | Somewhat-Risky | -160 | 110 |
Pereira, at his best dog, walks Reese but he has looked terrible lately. Neither guy has great cardio, but Pereira has made a name for himself fighting competitively with the borderline top 15 of the division while Reese is an action-packed fighter who has struggled with a bunch of unranked guys. I'm picking Pereira to get it done by KO. | |||||
Ode Osbourne | 7800 | Alibi Idiris | Somewhat-Risky | 112 | 250 |
Ode is normally a fast starter with power and Alibi looked horrible in his UFC debut. Ode is the type of fighter that you want to back as a dog and fade as a favorite so I'll take a shot on him here. | |||||
Zach Reese | 7700 | Michel Pereira | Somewhat-Risky | 130 | +250 |
Pereira did not look like himself last time out and if he isn't better this time out Reese will be able to take advantage of him with aggression. It's tough to tell which version of Pereira show's up Saturday night, but Reese should be able to get a few takedowns on him. | |||||
Punahele Soriano | 7900 | Ramiz Brahimaj | Risky | -104 | 250 |
Soriano has more power, but Ramiz is tough to get out of there. He is good value for his price, and this is basically a 50/50 tossup. If he lands clean, he could get the KO, but any win at under $8000 is a good deal. | |||||
Paydown Fighters
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Serghei Spivac | 7600 | Ante Delija | Somewhat-Risky | 114 | 215 |
Spivak has great wrestling, but he is slow and plodding. If this stays standing, he is going to be KO'd quickly, he needs to come out shooting right from the start. | |||||
Uros Medic | 7500 | Geoff Neal | Somewhat-Risky | 176 | 215 |
Medic is going to score either 100+ DraftKings points by winning by KO or get KO'd quick, high risk high reward at a reasonable price. | |||||
Phil Rowe | 7400 | Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani | Risky | 168 | 330 |
Rowe missed weight, and it makes sense because he is huge for the division. If he gets taken down, he has good submission skills but stays on his back for too long. I normally fade him but the underdogs get rough this week towards the bottom. | |||||
Dan Ige | 7300 | Melquizael Costa | Risky | +180 | 330 |
Ige is either going to KO Costa or his low volume will come back to kill him. If he doesn't get a win, he'll likely score only 55-65pts in a decision win | |||||
Luis Gurule | 7200 | Alden Coria | Risky | 245 | 650 |
Gurule has power, but he is going to be behind on volume. He is a similar play to Medic, but with less chance to get the finish. I expect this fight to be close. | |||||
Josiah Harrell | 6900 | Jacobe Smith | Risky | 230 | 550 |
Harrell is undefeated in his own right and comes to the UFC with a crazy story (was going to fight on contender series but was flagged with a brain issue that required surgery). He needs to survive Smith's early power but if he does this fight becomes a tossup. | |||||
Juliana Miller | 6500 | Carli Judice | Risky | 550 | 1200 |
If she gets takedowns, I don't know what to expect from Judice off her back, but on the feet, she is going to get pieced up. She is so cheap that even if she scores 50pts she won't kill your lineup. | |||||
Sample Lineup
Picks and Stats
Sean Strickland | vs | Anthony Hernandez |
$7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
Record: 29-7-0 | Record | Record: 15-2-0 (1 NC) |
11 | Knockouts | 3 |
4 | Subs | 9 |
230 | Vegas Odds | -275 |
Geoff Neal | vs | Uros Medic |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
Record: 16-7-0 | Record | Record: 12-3-0 |
10 | Knockouts | 10 |
2 | Subs | 2 |
-230 | Vegas Odds | 176 |
Dan Ige | vs | Melquizael Costa |
$7,300 | DFS Salary | $8,900 |
Record: 19-10-0 | Record | Record: 25-7-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 8 |
5 | Subs | 8 |
176 | Vegas Odds | -230 |
Serghei Spivac | vs | Ante Delija |
$7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
Record: 17-6-0 | Record | Record: 26-7-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 12 |
8 | Subs | 7 |
114 | Vegas Odds | -146 |
Jacobe Smith | vs | Josiah Harrell |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
Record: 11-0-0 | Record | Record: 11-0-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 6 |
1 | Subs | 4 |
-310 | Vegas Odds | 230 |
0 | ||
Zach Reese | vs | Michel Pereira |
$7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
Record: 10-2-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 31-14-0 (2 NC) |
5 | Knockouts | 11 |
3 | Subs | 8 |
130 | Vegas Odds | -160 |
Chidi Njokuani | vs | Carlos Leal |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
Record: 25-11-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 22-7-0 |
15 | Knockouts | 11 |
1 | Subs | 2 |
112 | Vegas Odds | -135 |
Ode Osbourne | vs | Alibi Idiris |
$7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
Record: 13-9-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 11-1-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 4 |
5 | Subs | 1 |
112 | Vegas Odds | -138 |
Alden Coria | vs | Luis Gurule |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
Record: 11-3-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 10-2-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 5 |
4 | Subs | 1 |
-320 | Vegas Odds | 245 |
Nora Cornolle | vs | Joselyne Edwards |
$7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
Record: 9-3-0 | Record | Record: 16-6-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 7 |
2 | Subs | 4 |
250 | Vegas Odds | -340 |
Ramiz Brahimaj | vs | Punahele Soriano |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
Record: 13-5-0 | Record | Record: 12-4-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 7 |
12 | Subs | 2 |
-118 | Vegas Odds | -104 |
Phil Rowe | vs | Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani |
$7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
Record: 11-6-0 | Record | Record: 9-2-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 3 |
4 | Subs | 5 |
168 | Vegas Odds | -210 |
Jordan Leavitt | vs | Yadier del Valle |
$6,800 | DFS Salary | $9,400 |
Record: 12-3-0 | Record | Record: 10-0-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 2 |
7 | Subs | 4 |
310 | Vegas Odds | -420 |
Juliana Miller | vs | Carli Judice |
$6,500 | DFS Salary | $9,700 |
Record: 5-3-0 | Record | Record: 5-2-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 5 |
2 | Subs | 0 |
+550 | Vegas Odds | -900 |