UFC Fight Night DFS Picks & Lineups: Sterling vs. Zalal Cheat Sheet, 4/25
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs Youssef takes place this Saturday from The Meta Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card kicks off with the Prelims at 5:00 PM EST on Paramount+, followed by the Main Card at 8:00 PM on Paramount+. Former champion Aljo Sterling takes on rising prospect Youssef Zalal in the main event as both men look to take a major step towards a title shot. Sterling has better wrestling and grappling, while Zalal is durable and should be live for an upset at any time. This is going to be an action-packed fight that could end at any time. As always, head on over to our DFS ownership page for full ownership breakdowns of these fights.
Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below, and always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs Youssef
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Aljamain Sterling vs Youssef Zalal | 7800/8400 | - | Stackability: Low | 110/ -138 | 300.0/240.0 |
A great main event as former title holder Aljo Sterling faces off against rising prospect Youssef Zalal. Aljo has some of the best wrestling and grappling in the division, but he has been a little bit chinny at times. Zalal isn't a power puncher bust he mixes in his wrestling and striking very well. I think this might be too much too soon for Zalal, so I'm picking Sterling to get it done, but I would not be shocked if Zalal clips Aljo and puts him down. | |||||
Expensive Fighters
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Jafel Filho | 9500 | Cody Durden | Somewhat-Safe | -549 | #N/A |
Filho is fighting a late replacement in Cody Durden, but what Durden does well in submissions and wrestling is exactly what Filho wants to do. This first round might be close, but if this gets to R2, it will be domination from Filho. | |||||
Francis Marshall | 9400 | Lucas Brennan | Somewhat-Safe | -500 | 105.0 |
Marshall is a well-rounded fighter, and while I don't think he has as good a matchup as Filho, he still should be able to finish this fight. His volume and wrestling can even get him 90+ pts in a decision, so he is a safe play. | |||||
Rodolfo Vieira | 9100 | Eric McConico | Somewhat-Safe | -275 | 130.0 |
There is a major drop-off between Marshall and the rest of this tier. He knows he needs to wrestle, and his submission skills are great, but he doesn't like getting hit. His pace slows, and if he can't get his wrestling going, he may only score 60 in a decision win. | |||||
Julia Polastri | 9000 | Talita Alencar | Moderate | -250 | 275.0 |
If this stays standing, Polastri could land 150 significant strikes. I think she should only be closer to -200, but out of everyone in the under $9200 range, she has the best chance of scoring 90+ in a decision. | |||||
Jackson McVey | 8700 | Sedriques Dumas | Moderate | -188 | -163. |
McVey hasn't been impressive, but Dumas constantly makes bad decisions. He should be able to pressure and get this fight where he wants it. I expect him to find the finish in the early second round. | |||||
Mid-Range Fighters
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Ryan Spann | 7900 | Marcus Buchecha | Moderate | 110 | 140.0 |
This is a weird range this week, but because of that, I am listing the fighter with the highest upside first. Spann hasn't won a fight outside of round one in nearly 7 years, so if he wins, it will be an early finish. He has a massive striking advantage here, so if he comes out quick, he could KO Buchecha. | |||||
Alexander Hernandez | 8500 | Rafa Garcia | Moderate | -125 | 275.0 |
Hernandez has power and is much more fluid than Rafa. I expect him to try to keep the fight standing, so he'll need a KO to score well on DraftKings, but he always lands hard, and if he comes out aggressively, he could find that finish. | |||||
Montel Jackson | 8600 | Raoni Barcelos | Somewhat-Risky | -188 | 163.0 |
Jackson is faster, bigger, and younger, but he sometimes has too low volume and can lose a decision. Raoni is a good wrestler and will look to get inside the pocket, so if Raoni gets out of line, we could see Jackson KO him. | |||||
Davey Grant | 8000 | Adrian Luna Martinetti | Somewhat-Risky | -132 | |
I've been back and forth on this fight all week. Grant has a ton of experience, and his striking is pretty high-level. If you aren't a top 25 fighter in the division, Grant normally sends you packing, so if Adrian can get past him, that says a lot about his skill set. If Grant weren't 40+ years old, he would be a clear pick, but he is showing some signs of slowing down. | |||||
Raoni Barcelos | 7600 | Montel Jackson | Somewhat-Risky | 150 | 500.0 |
Barcelos, at his best, lands 100+ significant strikes or a bunch of takedowns. He is the only fighter to hand Payton Talbott a loss, and that is due to his great game planning and fight IQ. He will be prepared, but it all comes down to whether his aging body can keep up with Jackson's speed. | |||||
Marcus Buchecha | 8300 | Ryan Spann | Somewhat-Risky | -138 | -105. |
His wrestling is way better than Spann's, but it hasn't translated to MMA very well yet. I don't get him being a big favorite over someone with a track record like Spann, but if this gets extended, he should be able to take over the fight. | |||||
Adrian Luna Martinetti | 8200 | Davey Grant | Risky | 100 | |
Grant is aging and has shown signs that his durability may be wearing him down. If Adrian lands clean, he could be able to KO Grant, but it is tough for me to trust someone who was in a war on the Contender Series. | |||||
Paydown Fighters
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Max Griffin | 7600 | Montel Jackson | Somewhat-Risky | 120 | 350.0 |
Griffin is always durable and has a good price tag for his odds this week. He isn't a finisher, but at his price, a decision win may be enough to get you a tournament win. | |||||
Sedriques Dumas | 7500 | Jackson McVey | Somewhat-Risky | 140 | 225.0 |
This is a weird matchup as Dumas hasn't shown much in the UFC, but he keeps staying around. Physically, he can match up with anyone in the division, but his fight IQ is not good. If he wrestles, he can maybe control McVey to a decision. | |||||
Joselyne Edwards | 7400 | Norma Dumont | Risky | 200 | 500.0 |
Edwards has shown good pace and wrestling, but this is a huge step up for her. It should be a | |||||
Talita Alencar | 7200 | Julia Polastri | Risky | ||
She has better submission skills, but is going to get out-volumed and out-cardioed. It will be a good first 7 minutes for her, but she might not be able to survive after that. | |||||
Eric McConico | 7100 | Rodolfo Vieira | Risky | 210 | 400.0 |
Vieira has much better wrestling and submission skills, but McConico can outwork him here. On the feet, I expect McConico to outland him, and if it stays standing, he should be able to land 50+ significant strikes, which Vieira can rarely keep up with. | |||||
Mayra Bueno Silva | 6900 | Michelle Montague | Risky | 300 | 700.0 |
She has skills to submit anyone, but she is low volume and sometimes gets too comfortable fighting off of her back. She is probably submission or bust. | |||||
Sample Lineup
Live Dogs
Sterling, Barcelos, Spann, Griffin
Picks and Stats
Aljamain Sterling | vs | Youssef Zalal |
$7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
Record: 25-5-0 | Record | Record: 18-5-1 |
3 | Knockouts | 4 |
8 | Subs | 10 |
110 | Vegas Odds | -138 |
Norma Dumont | vs | Joselyne Edwards |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
Record: 13-2-0 | Record | Record: 17-6-0 |
0 | Knockouts | 7 |
2 | Subs | 5 |
-250 | Vegas Odds | 200 |
Rafa Garcia | vs | Alexander Hernandez |
$7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
Record: 18-4-0 | Record | Record: 18-8-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 8 |
8 | Subs | 2 |
100 | Vegas Odds | -125 |
Davey Grant | vs | Adrian Luna Martinetti |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
Record: 17-8-0 | Record | Record: 17-1-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 4 |
7 | Subs | 6 |
-132 | Vegas Odds | 100 |
Montel Jackson | vs | Raoni Barcelos |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
Record: 15-3-0 | Record | Record: 21-5-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 8 |
1 | Subs | 3 |
-188 | Vegas Odds | 150 |
0 | ||
Marcus Buchecha | vs | Ryan Spann |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
Record: 5-2-1 | Record | Record: 23-11-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 6 |
4 | Subs | 10 |
-138 | Vegas Odds | 110 |
Rodolfo Vieira | vs | Eric McConico |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
Record: 11-4-0 | Record | Record: 10-4-1 |
1 | Knockouts | 4 |
9 | Subs | 3 |
-275 | Vegas Odds | 210 |
Jackson McVey | vs | Sedriques Dumas |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
Record: 6-2-0 | Record | Record: 10-4-0 (1 NC) |
3 | Knockouts | 4 |
3 | Subs | 2 |
-188 | Vegas Odds | 140 |
Mayra Bueno Silva | vs | Michelle Montague |
$6,900 | DFS Salary | $9,300 |
Record: 10-6-1 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 7-0-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 6 |
7 | Subs | 0 |
300 | Vegas Odds | -400 |
Jafel Filho | vs | Cody Durden |
$9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
Record: 17-4-0 | Record | Record: 17-10-1 |
5 | Knockouts | 6 |
11 | Subs | 6 |
-549 | Vegas Odds | 400 |
Francis Marshall | vs | Lucas Brennan |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6.800 |
Record: 9-3-0 | Record | Record: 11-2-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 2 |
5 | Subs | 8 |
-500 | Vegas Odds | 350 |
Max Griffin | vs | Victor Valenzuela |
$7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
Record: 20-12-0 | Record | Record: 13-4-0 |
9 | Knockouts | 7 |
2 | Subs | 2 |
120 | Vegas Odds | -150 |
Talita Alencar | vs | Julia Polastri |
$7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
Record: 7-1-1 | Record | Record: 14-5-0 |
0 | Knockouts | 5 |
4 | Subs | 3 |
200 | Vegas Odds | -250 |