Updated: Saturday, May 3 at 2:30pm ET

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs Figueiredo takes place this Saturday live from Des Moines, Iowa.  The card kicks off with the Early Prelims at 7:00PM EST on ESPN+, followed by the Main Card at 10:00 on ESPN/ESPN+.  The Main Event features the former title holder Deiveson Figueiredo against another top five fighter in Cory Sandhagen.  Winning this fight puts either of these men in the title picture at Bantamweight so look for an action-packed main event this week as both of these fighters look to add another KO to their highlight reel.

Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
 

MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs Figueiredo 

A great main event serves as the appetizer to UFC 315 next week. Figueiredo has been a title holder in a lighter division, while Sandhagen is always one step away from getting the title shot. With Figgy aging, and Sandhagen still improving to fight, I think this is Cory's fight to win. I'm picking Sandhagen to use his size and crisp boxing to outpoint Figgy until later in the fight when he can really turn up the volume. A late finish wouldn't surprise me, but I think it is Sandhagen by decision.

Expensive Fighters

Mason Jones takes on a returning Jeremy Stephens and he can win this fight any way he wants. His easiest path is to use his wrestling because Stephens always has a ton of power, so I expect him to get the fight to the ground and get the early submission.

Robertson is going to look for takedowns right away against Rodriguez and her best path to victory is to keep the fight on the ground. On the feet she is going to be giving up some speed, but she fights smart and knows what she needs to do to win the fight.

Nickal is down on everyone's radar after the last fight. He is a great wrestler, but it seems like he won't shoot for takedowns if he thinks he can beat opponents on the feet. I think this week he will have to wrestle and RdR is someone who likes to hunt submissions so he might be happy to stay down there. Nickal has huge upside, but it all depends on if he wants to use his wrestling.

I don't trust his cardio and he takes on Loder who is a strong wrestler in his own right. I think Bekoev needs to get this done inside the distance because Loder is going to try to counter wrestling here. His price seems high to me, and I am going to end up betting Loder, but Bekoev showed last time that his ceiling is 110+ pts so he still makes for a great tournament play.

Petersen will need only one takedown in each round to win each round so if he gets them early, he can rack up a ton of control time. This is a major step back for Petersen compared to the last outing, so I expect him to get the takedown early and coast.
 

Mid-Range Fighters

This is a tough fight for Jackson, but I like the matchup. Jackson is long, and Marcos has questionable striking defense. If Marcos overextends, I could see Jackson ending the fight early with a counter.

Bolanos is a great striker, but he is going to have to worry about the wrestling of Le. I normally target the wrestler in these matchups, but I think Bolanos is so far ahead on the feet that he should be able to win. Le has the higher ceiling for DraftKings because he will need 3+ takedowns, so I'll end up with both in different lineups.

I like Ponz in this spot in the battle of two aging veterans. Ponz has been through a lot of injuries in his career and still seems to have the fire to compete. His wrestling is better than D-Rods so he has that to fall back on as well. Ponz chin sometimes fails him, but D-Rod isn't really a power puncher so I'm not as worried about that this week.

I think Tate is the better fighter this week, and Santos normally just tries to hold her opponent against the cage. I'll be betting Tate this week, and while she doesn't have much of a ceiling, I do think she gets the win.

Smotherman has good striking, and I think this is a very close match with Sidey, but at similar odds and ITD I am going to side with the dog in this one.

If Le wins, he needs to get multiple takedowns so his ceiling in a win is very high. No one in the mid-range really has great ITD, and this fight actually has the best odds for someone to find a finish so either fighter in this fight makes a decent play.

Marcos is undefeated and has good striking. Jackson is at a different level to what he normally fights though. He isn't a bad fighter, but I think this step up might be too soon for him.

Paydown Fighters

I like de Ridder this week strictly due to his upside. If he wins this fight, it's probably from reversals and a submission. I don't think he can win a decision so I'm putting him in the submission or bust category which this week is enough due to all the large underdogs.

Miller has been off for two years, but Petrovic isn't a world beater. Her submission skills are really good, and she is tough. She is willing to throw more volume than Petrovic, but it really isn't anything substantial. If she wins, it's probably a decision but her volume would be pretty strong so he can outscore most fighters in this range.

Rodriguez has the advantage on the feet, but she is way behind if this fight hits the ground. She is close to a KO or bust which is tough for a woman's fight but if this becomes a striking battle, she can get it done.

Loder is a good wrestler and could wear on Bekoev if this fight extends. He won "The Ultimate Fighter" and he is a wrestling coach for some high-level fighters like Anothony "Fluffy" Hernandez, so he's seen high level fighters before. He likely wins in a decision, but it would include a ton of control time and wrestling so he has a good ceiling if he can control the fight.

Mayes is a better striker, but his takedown defense is so bad I think he is fighting most of this fight off of his back. Petersen seems to know the game plan he needs to win so I find it hard to see Mayes having success when he is going to be constantly fighting off takedowns. It is low-level heavyweight so you never know though, one good punch can end someone’s night in this weight class.

Stephens has a ton of power, and he has found success in Bareknuckle Boxing but that isn't the same as MMA. He has underwhelmed in his last few MMA fights, and this could be the end of his MMA career here. He is always live for the one punch KO but outside of that he can't win this fight.

Sample Lineup

Live Dogs

• Reinier de Ridder
• Cameron Smotherman
• Ryan Loder
• Quang Le

Picks and Stats