UFC Fight Night DFS Picks & Lineups: Nurmagomedov vs. Song Cheat Sheet, 8/29

Main Event

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Umar Nurmagomedov vs Yadong Song

9500/6700

-

Stackability: Low

-549/ 440

225.0/800.0

A great main event caps off this card. Umar nearly won the belt last year as he lost a close decision against Merab, while Song has been fighting all of the top fighters in the division, such as O'Malley, but he has yet to get the real statement win. Umar's wrestling is phenomenal, but he has been rocked in the past. Song is the best striker he has ever fought, so this is going to be a classic grappler vs striker matchup. If Umar has his way and has this fight on the ground, he'll win, but he rarely gets the finish. Song has a puncher's chance, and with the fight being in China, he should have a lot of support. I expect Umar to get the win while getting booed for repeatedly landing takedowns without any real damage.

Expensive

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Rei Tsuruya

9700

Kevin Borjas

Somewhat-Safe

-800 

-163. 

Rei has elite wrestling, and while he doesn't have the same finishing upside as other fighters in this range, he easily has the highest floor. He is a safe play for scoring 90+ points in a decision and can even top 115pts if he gets a finish.

Bilal Hasan

9600

Nilson Rojas

Somewhat-Safe

-800 

-225. 

Hasan is likely to win this fight and win it quickly, but Rojas is the toughest opponent he has faced. If this gets extended, Hasan's scoring potential will be limited. It is very close between him and Rei, but I slightly lean towards Rei.

Kai Asakura

9400

Aori Aoriqileng

Somewhat-Safe

-450 

-250. 

Kai is similar to Hasan but a little less likely to win. His debut was a title fight, so this is a massive step back in competition. He will win this fight, and probably by early KO. Aori is going to throw power back at Kai, so he does have more to worry about than some of the other high-priced fighters.

Su Sumudaerji

8800

Alex Perez

Moderate

-220 

140.0 

This is a rematch after a no decision, and the line has totally flipped. Su lands with power, but he hasn't been able to get the finish recently. He has the power to score big, and at nearly $1000 cheaper than the highest-priced fighters, he should be a good piece in the mid-range.

Liu Ce

8700

Levi Rodrigues Jr.

Moderate

#N/A

#N/A

This is going to be a wild fight. It is -700 to end by KO, so someone is going to get knocked out. I lean towards Liu Ce, but this is a low-level fight with high variance. I want a piece of this fight in my lineups, so even if I have to pay $8700 for a fighter I don't trust, I do know that the winner of this fight likely makes it on the optimal lineup.

Mid-Range

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Ding Meng

8300

Cam Nelson

Moderate

-155

140

Ding is a decent-sized favorite for his price, and he throws with a lot of power. In the mid-range, he is the most likely to get the knockout, so he has big upside. He does not throw much volume, though, so a decision win may only score 60-70pts.

Sean Woodson

8400

Jack Jenkins

Moderate

-150 

300.0 

He has a ton of length and will land volume if his opponent tries to get into range. I don't see a KO coming, but he should be able to land close to 100 significant strikes even in a decision.

Yan Xiaonan

8500

Denise Gomes

Somewhat-Risky

-155

600

She'll need to avoid takedowns, but she has the highest pedigree of anyone priced around her. If this stays standing, she should be able to dominate the fight.

Xiao Long

8600

Francesco Nuzzi

Somewhat-Risky

-170

200

This is the weirdest matchup I've seen in a while. Long is coming off of a fight where he landed 3 low blows, and Nuzzi is coming off of a fight that was ended in a no contest due to low blows. Long has some power, but I don't really trust either of these guys to fight a smart fight.

Denise Gomes

7700

Yan Xiaonan

Somewhat-Risky

120 

300.0 

She can wrestle a little bit, and if she gets it down, she could make this close. She is a safer underdog because her fight will end up going to a decision, so she'll score 30-40pts even in a loss.

Jack Jenkins

7800

Somewhat-Risky

120 

300.0 

He needs to throw leg kicks to chop down Woodson and his massive reach advantage. If Woodson can keep his mobility throughout the fight, he'll have a hard time tracking down Woodson.

Pay-Downs 

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Levi Rodrigues Jr.

7500

Liu Ce

Somewhat-Risky

160

200

This is a close fight, and neither of them really stands out as a high-level fighter. I expect an early KO, and while Levi isn't a great fighter, he does hit hard. High risk, high reward.

Namsrai Batbayar

7200

Andre Lima

Somewhat-Risky

210 

350.0 

He throws more volume and has better wrestling. He should be able to keep it close; if he can avoid Lima's power, he has a legit shot at winning this fight.

Nilson Rojas

6600

Bilal Hasan

Risky

500 

900.0 

He has shown he can go a little deeper into fights than Bilal, but he isn't as talented. This is another low-level fight between two undefeated prospects. I think it'll be closer than the line suggests.

Alex Perez

7400

Su Sumudaerji

Risky

175 

300.0 

He was a favorite the last time these two matched up, but he wasn't able to wrestle successfully in that matchup, so the line has switched. He is a much better grappler, but if he can't get it down, he'll struggle.

Aori Aoriqileng

6800

Kai Asakura

Risky

360

650

He is going to throw with power. When he gets in the pocket, he will likely get KO'd, but he is going to at least go in there and try his best to put up a huge score.

Hector Santiago

7100

Lawrence Lui

Risky

210 

450.0 

He needs to avoid takedowns; if he does, it'll be close. He is the much smaller fighter in the matchup, but he has a puncher's chance.

Umar Nurmagomedov

vs

Yadong Song

$9,500

DFS Salary

$6,700

20-1-0

Record

23-9-1

2

Knockouts

9

7

Subs

4

-549 

Vegas Odds

440 

Yan Xioanan

vs

Denise Gomes

$8,500

DFS Salary

$7,700

19-5-0

Record

12-3-0

8

Knockouts

7

1

Subs

0

-150 

Vegas Odds

120 

Qileng Aori

vs

Kai Asakura

$6,800

DFS Salary

$9,400

26-13-0

Record

22-6-0

9

Knockouts

14

1

Subs

3

335 

Vegas Odds

-450 

Alex Perez

vs

Su SuMudaerji

$7,200

DFS Salary

$8,800

26-10-0

Record

19-7-0

7

Knockouts

13

7

Subs

1

175 

Vegas Odds

-220 

Ce Liu

vs

Levi Rodrigues

$8,700

DFS Salary

$7,500

3-1-0

Record

5-1-0

3

Knockouts

5

0

Subs

0

-200 

Vegas Odds

163 

0

Bilal Hasan

vs

Nilson Rojas

$9,600

DFS Salary

$6,600

9-0-0

Record

9-0-0

7

Knockouts

7

0

Subs

0

-800 

Vegas Odds

500 

Namsrai Batbayar

vs

Andre Lima

$7,200

DFS Salary

$9,000

10-1-0

Record

11-1-0

5

Knockouts

5

5

Subs

1

210 

Vegas Odds

-275 

Rei Tsuruya

vs

Kevin Borjas

$9,700

DFS Salary

$6,500

11-1-0

Record

11-5-0

4

Knockouts

8

5

Subs

0

-800 

Vegas Odds

500 

Jack Jenkins

vs

Sean Woodson

$8,300

DFS Salary

$7,900

14-4-0

Record

13-2-1

6

Knockouts

4

3

Subs

1

120 

Vegas Odds

-150 

Long Xiao

vs

Francesco Nuzzi

$8,600

DFS Salary

$7,600

27-11-0

Record

11-2-0

5

Knockouts

5

9

Subs

3

-180 

Vegas Odds

150 

Lawrence Lui

vs

Hector Santiago

$9,100

DFS Salary

$7,100

8-1-0

Record

6-1-0

4

Knockouts

5

0

Subs

0

-275 

Vegas Odds

210 

Jingnan Xiong

vs

Julia Polastri

$7,300

DFS Salary

$8,900

19-3-0

Record

14-6-0

2

Knockouts

8

8

Subs

2

195 

Vegas Odds

-250 

Meng Ding

vs

Cameron Nelson

$8,300

DFS Salary

$7,900

35-10-0

Record

7-1-0

28

Knockouts

2

2

Subs

3

-135

Vegas Odds

110