UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs Pyfer takes place this Saturday from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.  The card kicks off with the Prelims at 5:00 PM EST on Paramount+, followed by the Main Card at 8:00 PM on Paramount+.  Moicano has fought some of the best fighters in the division in Islam Makhachev and Benoit St. Denis, and while he struggled in some of those high-level matchups, he showed he belongs in the top 15.  Duncan is coming off of impressive wins against some top 15-25 fighters, and he looks to add a big name to his resume this weekend.  As always, head on over to our DFS ownership page for full ownership breakdowns of these fights MMA Ownership

Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below, and always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on Twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!

MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Duncan

Main Event

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Renato Moicano vs Chris Duncan

7400/8800

-

Stackability: Low

140/ -175

225.0/-125.

This is a tough matchup in the 155lb division.  Moicano has been fighting the top of the division and having mixed results, while Duncan has been dominating the low end of the division.  I lean towards Moicano being able to wrestle early and get the early finish, but if this gets extended Duncan should be able to start to take over.  Duncan has power so I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins early either, but I just think Moicano for the first 5-8 minutes is going to be a real problem mixing in all of his skills.


 

Expensive Fighters

Expensive

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev

9900

Brendson Ribeiro

Somewhat-Safe

-1,600

-1,000 

Yakhyaev is a massive favorite, and Ribeiro has been finished early many times so this is a great match up for him. The only issue here is that his price of $9,900 makes it really hard to fit him into lineup, but at almost -800 to win the fight inside the distance he earns the top spot.

Tommy McMillen

9800

Manolo Zecchini

Somewhat-Safe

-1400 

-549. 

Another massive favorite, and he should be able to get the win by sub or KO. It's more likely get gets a takedown and a finish so I don't rate his ability to finish in the first minute as high as Yakhyaev and at these odds we are splitting hairs.

Azamat Bekoev

9500

Tresean Gore

Somewhat-Safe

-699 

-163. 

On most slates this would be an above average play in the expensive range, but this week we have two favorites bigger than Bekoev's massive -700. Gore randomly shows up and has good fights so I'd be less surprised if this fight gets extended compared to the ones above him. He still has the power for the quick KO, but I'm less unsure that he will be able to get the finish than McMillen and Yakhyaev.

Jose Delano

9200

Robert Ruchala

Moderate

-333 

150.0 

He showed on the contender series that he can throw a ton of volume, and this could be a similar matchup. If Delano keeps it standing, I expect him to score 90+ even in a decision with the amount of volume he lands. Ruchala may look to wrestle and if that happens it could slow down the pace.

Alessandro Costa

9300

Stewart Nicoll

Moderate

-400 

-110. 

This is more a play against Nicoll than for Costa. Costa has lost to some really tough fighters in Erceg and Albazi so this is a step back in competition compared to them. He can land volume and wrestle a little bit, and with the pace that Nicoll forces we could see more volume than usual from Costa.



 

Mid-Range Fighters

Mid-Range

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Ethyn Ewing

8600

Rafael Estevam

Moderate

-150 

210.0 

Ewing is aggressive and anytime this fight is on the feet he should be dominating. Estevam can wrestle and will shoot takedowns but moving up a division is tough for him to wrestle. 

Virna Jandiroba

7900

Tabatha Ricci

Moderate

-130 

400.0 

She is going to wrestle, she is going to hunt submissions, and while Ricci is tough out, I think she has a good chance of turning this fight into a grappling contest. Virna opened as the underdog so at her price she will be highly owned.

Thomas Petersen

8000

Guilherme Pat

Somewhat-Risky

-120 

300.0 

If he wrestles, he can dominate this fight, but if he stays striking, he is a liability to get KO'd. Pat is jacked, but if Petersen pushes a pace he should eventually fade.

Guilherme Pat

8200

Thomas Petersen

Somewhat-Risky

-105 

140.0 

Pat winning by KO is highly likely, and if he doesn't get the KO he probably loses. He is a high ceiling play but is an underdog at $8200 so he could be a contrarian play.

Melissa Gatto

7700

Dione Barbosa

Somewhat-Risky

110 

300.0 

Gatto has good volume but we haven't seen her in a while so I'm not sure how she'll look. If this stays standing, I think she has an advantage and this week the value is all in the mid-range underdogs as they come in around +110-+120.

Rafael Estevam

7600

Ethyn Ewing

Somewhat-Risky

120 

400.0 

He wrestles, and although he doesn't strike, as an underdog he can put up a big score with just points from takedowns. I don't like his style, but if he does win, he scores massively.

Tabatha Ricci

8300

Virna Jandiroba

Risky

110 

800.0 

If this stays standing, she can dominate on the feet, and she has been a tough fighter to take down. She has a tiny chance of winning by finishing so I won't be playing her as a favorite this week.




 

Paydown Fighters

Pay-Downs 

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Dakota Hope

7500

Kai Kamaka III

Somewhat-Risky

130 

 

Kamaka is making his UFC return and while he hits hard, there is a reason he was originally released. Hope has shown he can go to decision and has finishing ability. This fight is one of the fights I am least confident in my read, but when that happens, I tend to lean underdog.

Darrius Flowers

7300

Lando Vannata

Somewhat-Risky

175 

210.0 

Both of these guys haven’t fought in forever and I thought Lando was retired. Lando last fought in 2023, and Flowers UFC run is 0-3 right now so this is probably the last fight for both of these fighters. Flowers may be able to bully Vannata around the smaller cage, and Vannata was looking slow and old 3 years ago so I don't expect to see a much better version of himself this weekend.

Robert Ruchala

7000

Jose Delano

Risky

250 

500.0 

He had a tough debut against William Gomis but he showed he could wrestle a little bit. He may look to get the fight down again here, and if he does this will look more like a 50/50 fight.

Stewart Nicoll

6900

Alessandro Costa

Risky

300 

550.0 

Costa is low volume at times so he can be outworked. If Nicoll can push a pace, he may wear out Costa, but skill for skill he is going to be a little behind.

Tresean Gore

6700

Azamat Bekoev

Risky

450 

550.0 

Gore was a hyped prospect on The Ultimate Fighter but his UFC career has been a mess. He's been subbed in fights I thought he should win and KO'd in other fights as well.

Manolo Zecchini

6400

Tommy McMillen

Risky

750 

1,100 

Zecchini is another fighter we haven't seen in a while, and last time we did he was getting KO'd by body shots. McMillen is a hyped prospect, has more power, and is a good wrestler so I'll be fading Zecchini this week.

Brendson Ribeiro

6300

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev

Risky

900 

1,100 

Ribeiro has surprised a few prospects during his UFC run but this week I don't think is one of them. He has power, but he is slow and doesn't have great durability so I'm expecting him to get KO'd early.



 

 

Sample Lineup

Live Dogs

Moicano, Jandiroba, Petersen, Flowers, Gatto

Picks and Stats

   

Renato Moicano

vs

Chris Duncan

$7,400

DFS Salary

$8,800

Record: 20-7-1 

Record

Record: 15-2-0 

2

Knockouts

7

10

Subs

4

140 

Vegas Odds

-175 

   

Virna Jandiroba

vs

Tabatha Ricci

$7,900

DFS Salary

$8,300

Record: 22-4-0 

Record

Record: 12-3-0 

1

Knockouts

2

14

Subs

3

-130 

Vegas Odds

110 

   

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev

vs

Brendson Ribeiro

$9,900

DFS Salary

$6,300

Record: 8-0-0 

Record

Record: 17-9-0 (1 NC) 

3

Knockouts

9

4

Subs

7

-2000 

Vegas Odds

900 

   

Ethyn Ewing

vs

Rafael Estevam

$8,600

DFS Salary

$7,600

Record: 9-2-0 

Record

Record: 14-0-0 

6

Knockouts

4

1

Subs

3

-150 

Vegas Odds

120 

   

Tommy McMillen

vs

Manolo Zecchini

$9,800

DFS Salary

$6,400

Record: 9-0-0 

Record

Record: 11-4-0 

3

Knockouts

7

5

Subs

1

-1400 

Vegas Odds

750 

 

0

 

Jose Delano

vs

Robert Ruchala

$9,200

DFS Salary

$7,000

Record: 16-3-0 

Record

Record: 11-2-0 

4

Knockouts

3

5

Subs

3

-333 

Vegas Odds

250 

   

Guilherme Pat

vs

Thomas Petersen

$8,200

DFS Salary

$8,000

Record: 6-0-0 

Record

Record: 10-4-0 

4

Knockouts

7

0

Subs

1

-105 

Vegas Odds

-120 

   

Alessandro Costa

vs

Stewart Nicoll

$9,300

DFS Salary

$6,900

Record: 14-5-0 

Record

Record: 8-2-0 

5

Knockouts

4

6

Subs

3

-400 

Vegas Odds

300 

   

Lando Vannata

vs

Darrius Flowers

$8,900

DFS Salary

$7,300

Record: 12-7-2 

Record

Record: 12-8-1 

5

Knockouts

8

4

Subs

1

-225 

Vegas Odds

175 

   

Alice Pereira

vs

Hailey Cowan

$8,400

DFS Salary

$7,800

Record: 6-1-0 

Record

Record: 7-4-0 

4

Knockouts

2

1

Subs

2

-133 

Vegas Odds

110 

   

Azamat Bekoev

vs

Tresean Gore

$9,500

DFS Salary

$6,700

Record: 20-4-0 

Record

Record: 6-4-0 

8

Knockouts

1

8

Subs

3

-699 

Vegas Odds

450 

   

Dione Barbosa

vs

Melissa Gatto

$8,500

DFS Salary

$7,700

Record: 8-4-0 

Record

Record: 9-2-2 

0

Knockouts

3

4

Subs

4

-138 

Vegas Odds

110 

   

Kai Kamaka

vs

Dakota Hope

$8,700

DFS Salary

$7,500

Record: 17-7-1

Record

Record: 11-1-0 

3

Knockouts

5

1

Subs

1

-150 

Vegas Odds

130