UFC Fight Night DFS Picks & Lineups: Lewis vs. Teixeira Cheat Sheet, 7/12
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs Teixeira takes place this Saturday live from Nashville, Tennessee. The card kicks off with the Prelims at 6:00PM EST on ESPN+, followed by the Main Card at 9:00 on ESPN+. The card is headlined by a heavyweight main event featuring fan favorite Derrick “The Black Beast” Lewis taking on up-and-coming prospect Tallison Teixera in a blink and you’ll miss it fight. Both of these guys can end a fight in one punch, and I’m sure we will be in for a highlight reel KO this weekend!
Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below, and always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on Twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs Teixeira
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Derrick Lewis vs Tallison Teixeira | 7200/9000 | - | Stackability: Low | 180/ -200 | #N/A |
| A heavyweight main event after a week off headlines this card. The fan favorite Lewis comes in as a big underdog and I'm not really sure why. Sure, Lewis isn't in his prime anymore, and he is still the low volume KO or bust DK play that he has been for years but at $7200 he should be popular. Teixeira doesn't have much experience, he is hittable, and he hasn't proven he can go more than five minutes. I'm going to be taking Lewis by KO, but I don't think this is a quick fight since both men might be trying to save some gas in case it gets into the later rounds. | |||||
Expensive Fighters
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Vitor Petrino | 9600 | Austen Lane | Somewhat-Safe | -650 | -475 |
| Another week with some unproven commodities in the high-priced range. Petrino is making his debut at heavyweight and if his wrestling style from light heavyweight carries over, he should be able to make some waves in the division. He came in at almost 250 lbs. and looked in good shape so the move up in divisions looks to be getting off on the right foot. | |||||
| Fatima Kline | 9900 | Melissa Martinez | Somewhat-Safe | -1,200 | -115 |
| Kline is a massive favorite and has the grappling upside here so I expect her to dominate Martinez. She falls in love with her striking sometimes when she is winning in fights and if that happens Martinez might be able to keep it close. Hopefully she fights smart, wrestling, and finds the submission. At $9900 she is tough to click though because she'll really need to dominate this fight and score 110+ pts. | |||||
| Mike Davis | 9800 | Mitch Ramirez | Somewhat-Safe | -900 | -200 |
| Davis is more technical, better everywhere, but he has a terrible injury history so you never know if he is coming into a fight healthy. Ramirez has some power, and if Davis comes in once again injured or sick this fight could get closer than the line suggests. I still think Davis wins but I'll be focusing on Kline and Petrino over him this week. | |||||
| Gabriel Bonfim | 9300 | Stephen Thompson | Moderate | -400 | -130 |
| Thompson is a tricky fighter to figure out, but the best way to beat him is by getting takedowns and controlling him on the ground. Thompson is crafty enough to not get finished by the first takedown, so I expect Bonfim to need a couple to finish this fight which is great for DK. If for some reason Bonfim doesn't wrestle this is a 50/50 fight. | |||||
| Morgan Charriere | 8900 | Nate Landwehr | Moderate | -240 | 180 |
| Landwehr can be KO'd early but if Morgan doesn't get the early KO this will be a dog fight. With so many huge favorites this week I'll probably look elsewhere but if he does win, I expect a huge score with an early KO. | |||||
Mid-Range Fighters
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Junior Tafa | 8600 | Tuco Tokkos | Moderate | -180 | -125 |
| This is a high variance fight but I expect one of these guys to get KO'd and Tafa is likely the better fighter. He is moving down a weight class so it's tough to tell how that will impact him especially when he'll be weighing in around 40lbs less than he is used to. His striking should be more powerful and a little quicker than Tuco. | |||||
| Calvin Kattar | 7800 | Steve Garcia | Moderate | 115 | +180 |
| Kattar has more experience, and Garcia is the perfect dance partner for DK. Garcia has been similar to McKinney from last week where he forces someone in the fight to score 90+ pts because of his recklessness. Kattar is more technical and just moved camps to Tristar so I'm expecting to see new wrinkles in his game. Someone is going to get KO'd here and I'm leaning with the dog. | |||||
| Chidi Njokuani | 8200 | Jake Matthews | Somewhat-Risky | -115 | +275 |
| Chidi has a longer reach, and has enough power to drop Matthews. Matthews "can wrestle" but he never really gets it going and will likely keep it standing. Chidi is a blackbelt in BJJ so even if this hits the ground, he should be able to hold his own. | |||||
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | 8800 | Valter Walker | Somewhat-Risky | -240 | +130 |
| I'm including this fight in the mid-range this week only because there are 3 fights priced between $7600-$8600. Kennedy has power, but he is one of the least trustworthy fighters in the division. He should win, but I don't have confidence in his ability to win or to score well. | |||||
| Tuco Tokkos | 7600 | Junior Tafa | Somewhat-Risky | 150 | +200 |
| Tafa is not good, but neither is Tuco. Tuco should be able to keep it close and he can land heavy, I think Tafa has the better chin though which is why I leaned with him. He's a good underdog play because if he wins it's probably a huge score. | |||||
| Steve Garcia | 8400 | Calvin Kattar | Somewhat-Risky | -135 | 150 |
| Garcia can KO almost anyone in the division, but he is going to put himself in some bad spots. He has a high ceiling and with such big favorites for only a few $100 more I expect him to be a little overlooked. | |||||
| Valter Walker | 7400 | Kennedy Nzechukwu | Risky | 200 | +400 |
| Walker wrestles, if he can't get the takedowns he is going to get dominated. At his price anyone who can land 3+ takedowns in a fight is a good play so I'll probably use him in a few lineups. | |||||
Paydown Fighters
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Nate Landwehr | 7300 | Morgan Charriere | Somewhat-Risky | 200 | +500 |
| Nate is going to bring the fight to anyone; he's starting to get older but at his best he can land 100+ significant strikes and a handful of takedowns. Even in a decision he could score well. | |||||
| Lauren Murphy | 6700 | Eduarda Moura | Somewhat-Risky | 430 | 1400 |
| Murphy is a big underdog on her final fight of her career but she is another fighter like Nate who will hit hard and won't quit. She is going to march forward, and if Murphy can break Moura she might be able to take over in the second half of the fight. | |||||
| Max Griffin | 7100 | Chris Curtis | Risky | 250 | 700 |
| Curtis fights are normally terrible for DraftKings and the winner scores around 70pts so I won't be playing him at $9100. At $7100 Griffin is fine, but I just expect this to be a close striking fight and since I don't have a strong lean on it, I'm only considering the underdog. | |||||
| Stephen Thompson | 6900 | Gabriel Bonfim | Risky | 310 | +900 |
| Thompson can strike with anyone in the division still and was beating Buckley even at 40yrs old. Bonfim is going to wrestle but if for some reason he chooses to strike this is going to be tightly contested. | |||||
| Mitch Ramirez | 6400 | Mike Davis | Risky | 600 | +1,200 |
| Ramirez has power, and Davis has been battling Lyme Disease so if Davis isn't 100% there is a chance Ramirez could finish him. I don't want to be overly confident in a +600 but I'll probably end up with a small bet on Ramirez at this price. | |||||
| Austen Lane | 6600 | Vitor Petrino | Risky | 460 | +700 |
| Lane can wrestle a little bit, and Petrino has been known to gas out so there is a world where Lane takes over in R2/3 of this fight. I can't trust Lane's chin but at $6600 he isn't the worst play on the card. | |||||
| Melissa Martinez | 6300 | Fatima Kline | Risky | 750 | +1,600 |
| She doesn't have finishing ability or wrestling upside, but for $6300 even if she scores 40pts it could be enough to be on the optimal. I won't be playing her because you'll need a lot to go right in other fights for this play to work out, but I really don't think she wins or even makes it to a decision. | |||||
Sample Lineup
Live Dogs
Lewis, Katter, Landwehr, Murphy
Picks and Stats
Derrick Lewis | vs | Tallison Teixeira |
$7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
Record: 28-12-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 8-0-0 |
23 | Knockouts | 7 |
1 | Subs | 1 |
+180 | Vegas Odds | -200 |
Stephen Thompson | vs | Gabriel Bonfim |
$6,900 | DFS Salary | $9,300 |
Record: 17-8-1 | Record | Record: 17-1-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 3 |
1 | Subs | 13 |
310 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
Calvin Kattar | vs | Steve Garcia |
$7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
Record: 23-9-0 | Record | Record: 17-5-0 |
11 | Knockouts | 14 |
2 | Subs | 0 |
115 | Vegas Odds | -135 |
Nate Landwehr | vs | Morgan Charriere |
$7,300 | DFS Salary | $8,900 |
Record: 18-6-0 | Record | Record: 20-11-1 |
9 | Knockouts | 12 |
2 | Subs | 3 |
200 | Vegas Odds | -240 |
Vitor Petrino | vs | Austen Lane |
$9,600 | DFS Salary | $6,600 |
Record: 11-2-0 | Record | Record: 13-6-0 (1 NC) |
7 | Knockouts | 11 |
1 | Subs | 1 |
-650 | Vegas Odds | 460 |
0 | ||
Junior Tafa | vs | Tuco Tokkos |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
Record: 6-3-0 | Record | Record: 10-5-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 6 |
0 | Subs | 2 |
-180 | Vegas Odds | 150 |
Max Griffin | vs | Chris Curtis |
$7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
Record: 20-11-0 | Record | Record: 31-12-0 (1 NC) |
9 | Knockouts | 17 |
2 | Subs | 2 |
250 | Vegas Odds | -320 |
Jake Matthews | vs | Chidi Njokuani |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
Record: 21-7-0 | Record | Record: 25-10-0 (1 NC) |
5 | Knockouts | 15 |
8 | Subs | 1 |
-105 | Vegas Odds | -115 |
Lauren Murphy | vs | Eduarda Moura |
$6,700 | DFS Salary | $9,500 |
Record: 16-6-0 | Record | Record: 11-1-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 4 |
1 | Subs | 5 |
430 | Vegas Odds | -600 |
Kennedy Nzechukwu | vs | Valter Walker |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
Record: 14-5-0 | Record | Record: 13-1-0 |
10 | Knockouts | 6 |
1 | Subs | 3 |
-240 | Vegas Odds | 200 |
Mitch Ramirez | vs | Mike Davis |
$6,400 | DFS Salary | $9,800 |
Record: 8-2-0 | Record | Record: 11-3-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 7 |
2 | Subs | 2 |
600 | Vegas Odds | -900 |
Fatima Kline | vs | Melissa Martinez |
$9,900 | DFS Salary | $6,300 |
Record: 7-1-0 | Record | Record: 8-1-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 5 |
1 | Subs | 0 |
-1,200 | Vegas Odds | 750 |