UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Rodrigues takes place this weekend on Saturday at 5:00PM live from Sacramento, California. The main event this week is going to be an action-packed one. Hernandez constantly pushes a crazy pace while mixing in his striking with his smothering wrestling.  Rodrigues looks to add another highlight-reel KO to his already impressive list of wins. As always, head on over to our DFS ownership page for full ownership breakdowns of these fights.

Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below, and always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!

MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Rodrigues

Main Event

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues

8600/7600

-

Stackability: Low

-175/ 140

120.0/163.0

A great main event as a young up-and-comer faces off against a staple of the division. Hernandez is going to push a pace that Rodrigues can not keep up with, but Rodrigues has more than enough power to end this fight early. If Hernandez has a good game plan and can wrestle early, he should be able to prolong the fight and take over late. I'm expecting Hernandez to get a sub in Round 3/4/5.



 

Expensive Fighters

Expensive

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Anthony Wint

9900

Terrance Chatman

Somewhat-Safe

#N/A

#N/A

Wint has a ton of power and should be able to finish this fight early. As a -1000 favorite, he is the clear top play this week.

Marcio Barbosa

9800

Ryan Kuse

Somewhat-Safe

-800 

-649. 

He’s won 5 straight fights by first-round knockout, so he has as much upside as anyone on this card. His only losses are when he is extended out of the first round, but he should be able to get it done quickly this week.

Shanelle Dyer

9700

Elise Reed

Somewhat-Safe

-800 

-175. 

Reed is hittable and not very durable, so Dyer should be able to dominate and win this fight early. Reed doesn't have much of a ground game either, so Dyer can pick where she wants this fight to go.

Lerryan Douglas

9300

Jamall Emmers

Moderate

-400 

-250. 

He has a ton of power, but Emmers is well-rounded. There is a clear drop-off for me between the top three and Douglas this week.

Carli Judice

9400

Jeisla Chaves

Moderate

-549 

120.0 

She has a ton of volume but not much finishing power. If she finds a finish, she will score extremely well because she lands around 40 significant strikes per round in her fights.




 

Mid-Range Fighters

Mid-Range

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Vitor Petrino

8500

Serghei Spivac

Moderate

-175 

130.0 

I don't love this fight because heavyweight is so volatile, but that is also what makes Petrino a great DK play. Whoever wins this fight is likely finding a finish, and due to raw physicality, I believe it'll be Petrino getting the KO.

Shamil Gaziev

8400

Kennedy Nzechukwu

Moderate

-138 

110.0 

He has more than enough power to end this fight quickly. He hasn't been great as of late, but this is a major step back in competition for him.

Gauge Young

8300

Stan Dorsainvil

Somewhat-Risky

-138 

240.0 

Young is another fighter who throws up a ton of volume. He likely doesn't get the finish, but at his price, a decision with a lot of volume could be the piece you need to win a tournament.

Chris Padilla

8000

Nasrat Haqparast

Somewhat-Risky

-105 

300.0 

I lean Padilla in this fight due to his well-roundedness, but also because Nasrat has shown durability issues in his last few fights. If he can land on Nasrat, he may be able to finish him, and in the worst-case scenario, he probably scores 40+ as an underdog.

Kennedy Nzechukwu

7800

Shamil Gaziev

Somewhat-Risky

110 

150.0 

Gaziev was rocked in recent fights, and although I think Gaziev is the better fighter, you never know how someone will react after being KO'd. If he lands clean, it could be enough to get the finish.

Serghei Spivac

7700

Vitor Petrino

Somewhat-Risky

140 

275.0 

If he can wrestle at all, he should win this fight. Once Vitor has his gas tank drained, he will be a sitting duck, but for the first half of this fight, he needs to be very cautious if he wants to survive until a decision.



 

Paydown Fighters

Pay-Downs 

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Roman Dolidze

7000

Reinier de Ridder

Somewhat-Risky

300 

500.0 

Dolidze is the most skilled underdog on the card. I don't love his volume, but he puts out a ton of power, and at his worst he is someone who can score 30+ points in a loss.

Jamall Emmers

6900

Lerryan Douglas

Somewhat-Risky

300 

500.0 

He has power, and he has wrestling. His odds are very wide this week, but as the more experienced fighter, I will be taking a chance on him in a few lineups.

MarQuel Mederos

7200

Mason Jones

Risky

210 

400.0 

Jones puts up volume, but what that also means is that if Mederos is going to win, he is going to have to match that pace. If he can't keep up, he will lose the fight, but if he ends up being able to catch up, he could be the highest-scoring underdog on the card.

Wes Schultz

7500

Jackson McVey

Risky

#N/A

#N/A

He is going to hunt for submissions the entire fight. He likely spends 15 minutes on his back and doesn't get anything, but it only takes one for him to score 75+ points and be the piece that you need on the slate.

Terrance Chatman

6300

Anthony Wint

Risky

#N/A

#N/A

Wint has power, but he is raw. This fight is closer than the -1000 line looks. If Chatman survives for five minutes, he could turn this fight around.

Jeisla Chaves

6800

Carli Judice

Risky

400 

600.0 

Judice is another fighter who pushes a pace, so to be able to win against her, you need to keep up with her. Chaves has a good floor and ceiling for her price.

 

Sample Lineup

Live Dogs

Rodrigues, Emmers, Spivac, Padilla

Picks and Stats

   

Anthony Hernandez

vs

Gregory Rodrigues

$8,600

DFS Salary

$7,600

15-3-0

Record

19-6-0

3

Knockouts

12

9

Subs

3

-175 

Vegas Odds

140 

   

Serghei Spivac

vs

Vitor Petrino

$7,700

DFS Salary

$8,500

18-6-0

Record

14-2-0

7

Knockouts

8

8

Subs

2

140 

Vegas Odds

-175 

   

Reinier de Ridder

vs

Roman Dolidze

$9,200

DFS Salary

$7,000

21-4-0

Record

15-5-0

5

Knockouts

8

13

Subs

3

-400 

Vegas Odds

300 

   

MarQuel Mederos

vs

Mason Jones

$7,200

DFS Salary

$9,000

11-1-1

Record

18-2-0

6

Knockouts

8

0

Subs

3

210 

Vegas Odds

-275 

   

Carli Judice

vs

Jeisla Chaves

$9,400

DFS Salary

$6,800

6-2-0

Record

8-0-0

5

Knockouts

4

0

Subs

0

-549 

Vegas Odds

400 

 

0

 

Kennedy Nzechukwu

vs

Shamil Gaziev

$7,800

DFS Salary

$8,400

14-6-1

Record

14-3-0

10

Knockouts

9

1

Subs

3

110 

Vegas Odds

-138 

   

Wesley Schultz

vs

Jackson McVey

$7,500

DFS Salary

$8,700

9-3-0

Record

7-2-0

8

Knockouts

6

3

Subs

1

160

Vegas Odds

-188 

   

Chris Padilla

vs

Nasrat Haqparast

$8,000

DFS Salary

$8,200

17-6-1

Record

18-6-0

8

Knockouts

10

5

Subs

0

-105 

Vegas Odds

-120 

   

Gauge Young

vs

Stanley Dorsainvil

$8,300

DFS Salary

$7,900

11-3-0

Record

5-0-0

7

Knockouts

6

1

Subs

4

-138 

Vegas Odds

110 

   

Jamall Emmers

vs

Lerryan Douglas

$6,900

DFS Salary

$9,300

22-8-0

Record

14-5-0

6

Knockouts

3

2

Subs

5

300 

Vegas Odds

-400 

   

Anthony Wint

vs

Terrance Chatman

$9,900

DFS Salary

$6,300

7-0-0

Record

5-1-0

8

Knockouts

4

0

Subs

1

-1000

Vegas Odds

700

   

Shanelle Dyer

vs

Elise Reed

$9,700

DFS Salary

$6,500

7-1-0

Record

8-5-0

2

Knockouts

8

8

Subs

2

-800 

Vegas Odds

500 

   

Ryan Kuse

vs

Marcio Barbosa

$6,400

DFS Salary

$9,800

9-2-0

Record

18-2-0

6

Knockouts

6

1

Subs

1

600

Vegas Odds

-800