UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld takes place this weekend on Saturday at 5:00 PM live from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. This is a classic matchup as one of the best grapplers in the lightweight division, Mateusz Gamrot, takes on rising striker Quillan Salkilld.  Whoever wins this matchup will launch themselves towards the top 5 of the division and make a case that they should be part of the title picture in 2027. As always, head on over to our DFS ownership page for full ownership breakdowns of these fights MMA Ownership

Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below, and always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!

MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld

Main Event

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Mateusz Gamrot vs Quillan Salkilld

7900/8300

-

Stackability: Low

120/ -150

275.0/130.0

Gamrot is the much better grappler, but he is giving up a lot of striking speed, age, and durability. For DraftKings, this is the ideal main event because either Salkilld keeps it standing long enough to win by KO, or Gamrot scores 100+ points by landing a ton of takedowns. I'm leaning towards the savvy vet in Gamrot, but this is an extremely tight fight that is going to launch one of these men towards a title shot in 2027.


 

Expensive Fighters

Expensive

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Yadier del Valle

9600

Darren Elkins

Somewhat-Safe

-800 

-250. 

This is a weird matchup considering Elkins looked like he should retire after his last fight. Del Valle was the center of controversy when many people suspected that Isaac Dulgarian fixed his match against him, but even if that is so, Del Valle is still a decent grappler. Elkins, at this stage of his career, is one good punch away from getting rocked and KO'd. It's sad to see "The Damage" go out like this in his last fight, but this likely isn't winnable for Elkins unless Del Valle does something stupid like pulls guard or attempts a guillotine and allows Elkins to land on top to control the fight.

Ty Miller

9200

Billy Ray Goff

Somewhat-Safe

-400 

-110. 

Miller throws quick and has a ton of power. Sometimes he looks for the perfect shot too much instead of taking what is there, but he is the far superior striker; I'm expecting a Round 2 KO.

Steven Asplund

9000

Guilherme Pat

Somewhat-Safe

-275 

105.0 

Asplund is going to push a hellacious pace for heavyweight, and eventually Pat is going to tire and fade. He isn't the cleanest striker or grappler, but he has a ton of heart and durability, and that is all you need at heavyweight in these lower-ranked matchups.

Alexia Thainara

8800

Amanda Lemos

Moderate

-275 

240.0 

Thainara is the more explosive athlete, and she knows that staying on her feet in this matchup is dangerous. She'll look to get the fight down early and often, and as long as she can rack up the control time that she needs, she should be able to score 90+ fantasy points even if this fight goes to decision.

Juliana Miller

8900

Ravena Oliveira

Moderate

-333 

-110. 

I have no confidence in Miller winning this fight, but she is similar to Thainara. If she wins this fight, it is because she got the fight to the ground, held position, or found the submission. She is the longer fighter, but her strikes are strictly there to set up the wrestling entrances.




 

Mid-Range Fighters

Mid-Range

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Miles Johns

8600

Gianni Vasquez

Moderate

-175 

300.0 

Johns is now taking on a new opponent on short notice. He is a fighter who, at his best, has power and can wrestle. It's tough to tell how in shape his opponent will be coming in on two days’ notice, but I expect Johns to be able to push a pace to win this fight.

Louie Sutherland

8500

Jose Montanha

Moderate

-188 

140.0 

Sutherland is similar to Aspland. He isn't going to be flashy, but he is strong and will mix in some wrestling as needed. I expect him to win by finish in the first two rounds.

Bruno Lopes

7800

Diyar Nurgozhay

Somewhat-Risky

120 

240.0 

This is one of the lowest-level fights on the card. Both men have power, but I expect Bruno to be the quicker striker. This is a high variance fight, but the upside is worth the risk in tournaments.

Diyar Nurgozhay

8400

Bruno Lopes

Somewhat-Risky

-150 

105.0 

There are very limited mid-range items this week, but Diyar is another fighter like Lopes who I don't have confidence in, but he has the upside. Both of these men can also wrestle a little bit, so whoever ends up on top probably wins this fight.

Jose Montanha

7700

Louie Sutherland

Somewhat-Risky

#N/A

#N/A

This is a low-level heavyweight fight, so it'll be wild as long as it lasts. Sutherland is hittable, and while I don't think Jose wins, he makes for an interesting underdog play due to his upside.



 

Paydown Fighters

Pay-Downs 

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Billy Quarantillo

7500

Diego Ferreira

Somewhat-Risky

140 

225.0 

Billy is known for pushing a pace, and against an aging veteran he should be able to land at more volume. His durability isn't great, but at this point in both of their careers, I don't think Diego has the power to KO Billy.

Amanda Lemos

7400

Alexia Thainara

Somewhat-Risky

210 

500.0 

Lemos has the striking advantage and a ton of power, but she has lackluster wrestling defense. If she keeps it standing, she should win the fight. As a dog, any clear path to victory makes them an interesting play.

Richie Miranda

7100

Manoel Sousa

Risky

250 

400.0 

Sousa has a ton of power, but Miranda has never been finished. If Miranda can get the fight down on the ground, he has a clear path to winning this fight.

Guilherme Pat

7200

Steven Asplund

Risky

210 

450.0 

Pat is strong and in great-looking shape for a heavyweight, but he doesn't have the volume to keep up with Asplund. If he wins, it is going to be by early KO.

Gigi Canuto

6900

Carol Foro

Risky

#N/A

#N/A

She has a big advantage on the ground, and her submission skills are much better. She's only 24 years old and is likely making huge improvements fight to fight, but she is behind on the feet.

Billy Ray Goff

7000

Ty Miller

Risky

300 

500.0 

He is going to get outvolumed and outpowered, but if he can make it a great fight with cage control, he has a small chance.

 

Sample Lineup

Live Dogs

Gamrot, Quarantillo, Lopes, Miranda

Picks and Stats

   

Mateusz Gamrot

vs

Quillan Salkilld

$7,900

DFS Salary

$8,300

 

Record

 
 

Knockouts

 
 

Subs

 

120 

Vegas Odds

-150 

   

Billy Quarantillo

vs

Diego Ferreira

$7,500

DFS Salary

$8,700

 

Record

 
 

Knockouts

 
 

Subs

 

140 

Vegas Odds

-175 

   

Darren Elkins

vs

Yadier Del Valle

$6,600

DFS Salary

$9,600

 

Record

 
 

Knockouts

 
 

Subs

 

500 

Vegas Odds

-800 

   

Amanda Lemos

vs

Alexia Thainara

$7,400

DFS Salary

$8,800

 

Record

 
 

Knockouts

 
 

Subs

 

210 

Vegas Odds

-275 

   

Ty Miller

vs

Billy Ray Goff

$9,200

DFS Salary

$7,000

 

Record

 
 

Knockouts

 
 

Subs

 

-400 

Vegas Odds

300 

 

0

 

Steven Asplund

vs

Guilherme Pat

$9,000

DFS Salary

$7,200

 

Record

 
 

Knockouts

 
 

Subs

 

-275 

Vegas Odds

210 

   

Diyar Nurgozhay

vs

Bruno Lopes

$8,400

DFS Salary

$7,800

 

Record

 
 

Knockouts

 
 

Subs

 

-150 

Vegas Odds

120 

   

Jose Luiz

vs

Louie Sutherland

$7,700

DFS Salary

$8,500

 

Record

 
 

Knockouts

 
 

Subs

 

150

Vegas Odds

-188 

   

Manoel Sousa

vs

Richie Miranda

$9,100

DFS Salary

$7,100

 

Record

 
 

Knockouts

 
 

Subs

 

-333 

Vegas Odds

250 

   

Miles Johns

vs

Gianni Vazquez

$8,600

DFS Salary

$7,600

 

Record

 
 

Knockouts

 
 

Subs

 

-175 

Vegas Odds

155

   

Juliana Miller

vs

Ravena Oliveira

$8,900

DFS Salary

$7,300

 

Record

 
 

Knockouts

 
 

Subs

 

-333 

Vegas Odds

250 

   

Giovanna Canuto

vs

Carol Foro

$6,900

DFS Salary

$9,300

 

Record

 
 

Knockouts

 
 

Subs

 

250

Vegas Odds

-275