UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs Murphy takes place this Saturday from the O2 Arena in London England.  The card kicks off with the Early Prelims at 1:00PM EST on Paramount+, followed by the Main Card at 4:00PM on Paramount+.  This is a challenge eliminator fight as Movsar Evloev makes his return to the octagon and looks to dominate using his wrestling.  The hometown fighter Lerone Murphy will look to keep this fight at boxing range and use his volume and cardio to overwhelm Movsar on route to a title shot.  As always head on over to our DFS ownership page for full ownership breakdowns of these fights MMA Ownership

Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!

MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs Murphy

Main Event

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Movsar Evloev vs Lerone Murphy

8900/7300

-

Stackability: Low

-250/ 200

240.0/500.0

This is a classic matchup. Evloev is going to wrestle, and barely land any strikes while Murphy is going to want to keep it standing and strike. Evloev will score extremely well in a decision win because he'll need a bunch of takedowns to get the win. This is close to a must play matchup since Evolev scores well almost anytime he wins, and Murphy will have to get a finish or land a bunch of strikes to get the win.


 

Expensive Fighters

Expensive

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Mario Pinto

9700

Felipe Franco

Somewhat-Safe

-1,000

-450. 

Pinto can wrestle, he can strike, and he has a 30 lb. advantage in this matchup. He is a massive favorite, and I expect him to get the early finish.

Iwo Baraniewski

9500

Austen Lane

Somewhat-Safe

-549 

-549. 

Iwo is a madman so expect this fight to end quickly. He is going to push a pace, and unless Lane gets takedowns (it's Lane's first time at 205lbs moving down from heavyweight) I think Iwo should be able to dominate the fight on the feet.

Mantas Kondratavicius

9600

Antonio Trocoli

Somewhat-Safe

-649 

#N/A

Trocoli is one of the least durable fighters on the roster. Mantas should be able to win however he wants but I picture him getting it done on the feet.

Brando Pericic

9000

Louie Sutherland

Moderate

-275 

-200. 

This fight is -600 to end inside the distance so someone is going to score really well. There is a major drop off after the top 3 in this price range, but if I am going to challenge the really high-end fighters this week, I want to take a shot at a high variance fight that is likely to end inside the distance.

Luke Riley

9100

Michael Aswell Jr.

Moderate

-250

240

Aswell has horrible defense, but this is going to be a scrap. Aswell is going to land more volume, while Riley has more power. Against a fighter with limited defense, I will always lean towards the power striker.



 

Mid-Range Fighters

Mid-Range

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Mason Jones

8400

Axel Sola

Moderate

-125 

240.0 

I love Mason Jones this week because of the pace he moves at. Sola looked like he either has a needle mark (steroids?) or staph infection on his stomach so I'm not sure what version of him we end up seeing. Jones mixing up his wrestling and striking is probably too much for Sola.

Losene Keita

8700

Nathaniel Wood

Moderate

-225 

120.0 

This fight is going to be a war as all Wood's fights are. Keita is quicker than Wood when they are fresh so he should be able to win the early part of the fight. Wood hasn't been KO'd many times but he has been wobbled many times, this could be the week he gets KO'd.

Shem Rock

7900

Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady

Somewhat-Risky

100 

225.0 

Abdul is likely going to slow down as the fight goes on and I expect Shem to take over late. I wish he was a little bigger of an underdog, but even at his price he makes for a good play.

Michael Page

8600

Sam Patterson

Somewhat-Risky

-175 

163.0 

Page is always a tough click on DraftKings because even in a win he might only land 40 significant strikes. His power is enough that he can KO Patterson early, but if he doesn't get the Round 1/2 KO he probably doesn't end up on the optimal lineup.

Axel Sola

7800

Mason Jones

Somewhat-Risky

100 

350.0 

Sola might be the better striker, but he has to watch out for Jone's wrestling. This should be a back-and-forth fight with a lot of volume so in a win he probably scores 80+ points.

Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady

8300

Shem Rock

Somewhat-Risky

-125 

300.0 

When they are fresh Abdul is the better fighter, but his cardio might be a question. Shem is fighting in front of his hometown so the fans are going to be cheering whenever he does anything so in a decision it might be hard for Abdul to get the win. He isn't a bad play, but Jones and Keita have more upside in volume and finishing ability.

Sam Patterson

7600

Michael Page

Risky

140 

200.0 

Patterson needs to get the fight to the ground to win this fight. This week the underdogs in the mid-range are almost in coin flip fights so he isn't a bad play, but Page is coming off of hard fights against some of the best at 185lbs in Cannonier and Ian Garry and I don't think Patterson is the same level of wrestler as them.



 

Paydown Fighters

Pay-Downs 

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Danny Silva

7400

Kurtis Campbell

Somewhat-Risky

175 

350.0 

This fight is going to be a war, and while Silva is coming off a loss, it was a competitive fight against Kevin Vallejos who looks to be a true top 10 fighter in the division. Campbell is well rounded but I think he can be out muscled so this could be a tightly contested fight.

Nathaniel Wood

7500

Losene Keita

Somewhat-Risky

175 

500.0 

Wood always gets wobbled, but he finds a way to come back. He can wrestle a little and has decent striking. Fighting at home, and with so many gigantic underdogs this week I want to focus on the fighters priced around Wood this week.

Louie Sutherland

7200

Brando Pericic

Risky

210 

300.0 

This is a high variance fight, and Louie is either going to win this fight and score a ton of points, or he is going to get KO'd and probably score less than 10. He is a great GPP play but avoid him in cash games.

Michael Aswell Jr.

7100

Luke Riley

Risky

175 

400.0 

Aswell can land 120+ significant strikes in a three-round fight, but he may get hit just as much. His volume makes him a good play, and his chin is really good as well. Riley has serious power so he could get KO'd, but if he doesn’t, he might be able to just slightly outwork him.

Roman Dolidze

6900

Christian Leroy Duncan

Risky

333 

450.0 

Dolidze has power, but CLD is a great striker. If Dolidze looks like he can't outmuscle CLD he will look like he should be +1000, but until we know that for sure I think he is worth a shot at his price.

Ravena Oliveira

6800

Shanelle Dyer

Risky

333 

700.0 

This is a very low-level fight, and while Dyer has a ton of power this is woman's MMA so knockouts aren't likely. On a normal slate I would avoid Ravena, but she's worth a shot if Dyer can't carry her power into the latter half of the fight or if her wrestling is really bad, but it hasn't truly been tested yet.

Austen Lane

6700

Iwo Baraniewski

Risky

400 

500.0 

Lane was a heavyweight, and a football player on the Jaguars practice squad at Defensive End so he is absolutely massive for the 205lb division. If he can use his size to muscle around Iwo and drain his gas tank he can win this fight, but one or two good shots from Iwo may just end the fight.


 

Sample Lineup

Live Dogs

Murphy, Patterson, Wood, Silva, Rock

Picks and Stats

   

Movsar Evloev

vs

Lerone Murphy

$8,900

DFS Salary

$7,300

Record: 19-0-0 

Record

Record: 17-0-1 

3

Knockouts

8

4

Subs

0

-250 

Vegas Odds

200 

   

Luke Riley

vs

Michael Aswell Jr.

$9,100

DFS Salary

$7,100

Record: 12-0-0 

Record

Record: 11-3-0 

9

Knockouts

6

0

Subs

0

-225 

Vegas Odds

175 

   

Michael Page

vs

Sam Patterson

$8,600

DFS Salary

$7,600

Record: 24-3-0 

Record

Record: 14-2-1 

13

Knockouts

6

3

Subs

7

-175 

Vegas Odds

140 

   

Iwo Baraniewski

vs

Austen Lane

$9,500

DFS Salary

$9,500

Record: 7-0-0 

Record

Record: 13-7-0 (1 NC) 

5

Knockouts

11

2

Subs

1

-549 

Vegas Odds

400 

   

Roman Dolidze

vs

Christian Leroy Duncan

$6,900

DFS Salary

$9,300

Record: 15-4-0 

Record

Record: 13-2-0 

8

Knockouts

10

3

Subs

1

333 

Vegas Odds

-450 

 

0

 

Kurtis Campbell

vs

Danny Silva

$8,800

DFS Salary

$7,400

Record: 8-0-0 

Record

Record: 10-2-0 

5

Knockouts

5

1

Subs

0

-225 

Vegas Odds

175 

   

Mason Jones

vs

Axel Sola

$8,400

DFS Salary

$7,800

Record: 17-2-0 (1 NC) 

Record

Record: 11-0-1 

8

Knockouts

6

3

Subs

1

-125 

Vegas Odds

100 

   

Nathaniel Wood

vs

Losene Keita

$7,500

DFS Salary

$8,700

Record: 22-6-0 

Record

Record: 16-1-0 

8

Knockouts

10

5

Subs

0

175 

Vegas Odds

-225 

   

Mario Pinto

vs

Felipe Franco

$9,700

DFS Salary

$9,500

Record: 11-0-0 

Record

Record: 10-1-0 

7

Knockouts

6

1

Subs

4

-800 

Vegas Odds

500 

   

Mantas Kondratavicius

vs

Antonio Trocoli

$9,600

DFS Salary

$9,500

Record: 8-1-0 

Record

Record: 12-6-0 (1 NC) 

6

Knockouts

3

2

Subs

5

-649 

Vegas Odds

450 

   

Louie Sutherland

vs

Brando Pericic

$7,200

DFS Salary

$9,000

Record: 10-4-0 

Record

Record: 5-1-0 

8

Knockouts

4

0

Subs

1

210 

Vegas Odds

-275 

   

Shem Rock

vs

Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady

$7,900

DFS Salary

$8,300

Record: 12-2-1 

Record

Record: 15-4-0 

2

Knockouts

8

8

Subs

2

100 

Vegas Odds

-125 

   

Shanelle Dyer

vs

Ravena Oliveira

$9,400

DFS Salary

$6,800

Record: 6-1-0 

Record

Record: 7-3-1 

4

Knockouts

6

0

Subs

1

-500

Vegas Odds

333 

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